Dumb move

Go play 2NL. Best advice I can give you atm. Way more money saved by taking this advice then any amount of advice I can give you on this hand.

fold flop or listen to aka_red

Originally Posted by Razvan729

fold flop and listen to aka_red

fyp

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Does anyone feel I may have been pushed off the better hand at the river?

No, you're losing to everything in his range.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

After the CR at the flop, I called the turn for the implied odds, but I know I shouldn't have.

Learn about reverse implied odds. Your draw is trash on this flop, if villain has AT, which is in his range, and we bink the A, which makes a straight, you get ramrodded up the anus. Since T9 is in this guy's range too, we have no idea if we're good when we make the straight. You'll be giving him your stack much more often than he'll be giving you his, thus the reverse implied odds heavily outweigh the implied odds you have.

Betting flop is fine, but jfc fold to the raise.

Boris,

People are rarely c/raising worse than Tx on this flop vs a utg raise, and as others have said A10 is a big part of his range as well as k10 which you are drawing dead against. I would just fold the flop, if people start doing this to you and abusing the fact that you bet fold these kind of flops too much then you can adjust... until then just fold.

Yo thanks for the input people.

I know this was a terribly played hand. It's fucked up that I'd never play this badly against a good or average player, but against a huge fish I can "play down to his level" like this. I'm very much on guard against that after this hand, I remember getting myself in a few spots like this against whales when I used to play regularly before, so it's a leak I'm not going to let happen again.

I didn't think it was a clear -EV call on the flop until I looked at the numbers in pokerstove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

43,560 games 0.001 secs 43,560,000 games/sec

Board: Td Kh Th
Dead:

equity win
Hand 0: 28.028% { QdJd }
Hand 1: 71.972% { ATs, Ah8h, KJs+, QTs, Qh9h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, T9s, ATo, KJo+, QTo, JTo }


---


villain is a fish which makes me want to call the flop c/r a lot more -- implied odds are higher plus he is repping a strong range, also good for your IO. however, not all of your straight outs versus his c/r range are clean (his T9, AT combos make full houses when you make your hand). based on his c/r size he is very likely barreling the turn which means you will have to call another bet to see the river card.


if the flop were 585dxx and you had 67dd, calling would be closer to neutral EV but is probably still -EV. this is mostly because you are less worried about reverse implied odds (10 combos of 54s/99 versus 24 combos of T9/AT in the previous hand).

it's okay to make -EV plays as long as you make a larger +EV play on a future street. versus bad players this means making slightly -EV flop floats can be much better than folding because they will make major mistakes on the turn and river.

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

I didn't think it was a clear -EV call on the flop until I looked at the numbers in pokerstove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

43,560 games 0.001 secs 43,560,000 games/sec

Board: Td Kh Th
Dead:

equity win
Hand 0: 28.028% { QdJd }
Hand 1: 71.972% { ATs, Ah8h, KJs+, QTs, Qh9h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, T9s, ATo, KJo+, QTo, JTo }


---


villain is a fish which makes me want to call the flop c/r a lot more -- implied odds are higher plus he is repping a strong range, also good for your IO. however, not all of your straight outs versus his c/r range are clean (his T9, AT combos make full houses when you make your hand). based on his c/r size he is very likely barreling the turn which means you will have to call another bet to see the river card.


if the flop were 585dxx and you had 67dd, calling would be closer to neutral EV but is probably still -EV. this is mostly because you are less worried about reverse implied odds (10 combos of 54s/99 versus 24 combos of T9/AT in the previous hand).

it's okay to make -EV plays as long as you make a larger +EV play on a future street. versus bad players this means making slightly -EV flop floats can be much better than folding because they will make major mistakes on the turn and river.

Obviously the play you are making earlier isn't -eV if you are going to be +eV by the end of the hand.

you're right, and I can see how it would be easy to misunderstand what I was saying

I was looking at each decision in isolation when I made that post. calling the flop c/r is a -EV decision in itself, yet when you consider the decision from the perspective of the entire hand that flop call could turn out to be +EV.

Be more thoughtful about your spots to be stubborn about not folding your hand.

is it really such an easy flop fold vs a 50/35? We have decent equity vs his range with three diamonds allowing us to call a few sfd turns, and his bluff range could be really wide. Sure we'll be drawing dead some when we hit, but he can have like every ten so we will still have around 75% equity when we improve to a straight or flush.