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Genitruc
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10-19-2006, 02:39 PM
Post subject: Draw to the Nuts... JohnGotti Style.
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
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There is 1 situation that has been bothering me more than most over the past couple of weeks, partly because I've run badly when it's happened but mainly because all options seem bad on a theoretical level.
I raise with Ax (offsuit - this is important to the discussion) and a tight player calls in position. Flop comes monotone giving me nut flush draw. I c-bet and face aggression from the nit in position.
There are 2 huge and obvious problems with this situation :
1 - The nit almost definitely has all 1-pair hands beaten, so my over (Ace usually) isn't live. I am drawing to 9 outs at best.
2 - If I hit my 18% draw after calling the flop 3-bet, I will have an extremely tough time getting paid off. Who hasn't folded a set/good 2 pair while puking on a 4-flush board?
This is obviously easier vs an aggro postflop, who could presumably be playing back at me with a weaker draw or with air. But even if the person playing back at you is aggro, what line do you like and why?
I'm wondering if the most +ev solution isn't to just to fold the nut draw. But that just seems soooooo weak.
Thoughts?
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
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why would you be raising Ax offsuit out of position?
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Warpe
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Quote:
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why would you be playing Ax offsuit out of position?
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fyp
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Robert
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Full House
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Quote:
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why would you be raising Ax offsuit out of position?
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I think hero is talking about hands like AKo, AQo, AJo - I raise these hands from every position. Hero could also be talking about raising Ace-low off suit from the CO, which is allright if the button is a nit.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert
Quote:
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why would you be raising Ax offsuit out of position?
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I think hero is talking about hands like AKo, AQo, AJo - I raise these hands from every position. Hero could also be talking about raising Ace-low off suit from the CO, which is allright if the button is a nit. |
"x" as in any card not an ace
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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also
lol @ useful replies that have nothing to do with crux of subject.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Robert
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Full House
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Folding the flop with the nutflush draw OOP is almost mandatory, if you dont have the pot odds to call with just the flushdraw because you will have a hard time getting paid of OOP if you turn your flush (your implied odds are almost zero).
Shoving the flop over his reraise is also an option, but its a line I very rarely take because I dont believe you have much folding equity in these spots.
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gabe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
also
lol @ useful replies that have nothing to do with crux of subject.
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lol @ you being ignorant
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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comon gabe
seriously
i m starting to think you think i m a real dick or something. which you probably do after i got pissed little while back. hmmm. oh well guess the damage is done.
but jesus christ man look at OP and ask yourself wtf does raising Ax or not have to do with the subject?
guess i maybe am a dick. oh well.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Warpe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
also
lol @ useful replies that have nothing to do with crux of subject.
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Pardon me, but when you say "Axo", that's anything from A2o up. Be more specific if that's not what you mean.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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i agree robert. i m just such an over-aggro donk sometimes i think zomg i have draw to the nuts i m all in!!!
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
comon gabe
seriously
i m starting to think you think i m a real dick or something. which you probably do after i got pissed little while back. hmmm. oh well guess the damage is done.
but jesus christ man look at OP and ask yourself wtf does raising Ax or not have to do with the subject?
guess i maybe am a dick. oh well.
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If you never raise with Ax (with X less than T) OOP, you're never in this situation. So you avoid the problem altogether! AJ on a 3flush J high board is a lot stronger than A7 on a 7 high 3flush board, though, so its best to distinguish between the two as how big your TP here is relatively.
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Genitruc
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Warpe : should have been more specific I guess. The "x" in "Ax" meant exactly that (x being any non-ace). The reason the "offsuitedness" was important is that your flushdraw is completely transparent on a monotone flop.
I'm thinking a two-tone flop changes things dramatically since at least you're more likely to get paid by 2pair/sets.
Maybe it's my time of the month or something seems like i'm unusually grumpy/impatient. sry all.
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mcatdog
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What did this guy do to deserve such hostile responses to his thread? Do you guys really not raise hands like AT and A9 from the cut-off when the button is a nit? Seems like an auto-raise to me.
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AHiltz
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So, let's say you have Ad3s and opp has 8c8h and board comes Kd8d5d.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.2828 % 28.28% 00.00% { Ad3s }
Hand 2: 71.7172 % 71.72% 00.00% { 8c8h }
Shoving would not be best here at all.
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Ravageur
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Official Montreal SwampRat
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Quote:
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why would you be raising Ax offsuit out of position?
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Rofl, I'm raising Ax when folded to lots and so do many profitable 6 max players. Obviously not all aces, but a lot of them. And yes, they're winning hands for me.
As far as this situation, it's probably a fold against most opponents and a re-raise/push against some.
And yeah, the point of his post was what to do once you get resistance on the flop. Whether to raise it preflop or not was not the question.
Lol at u being ignorant as well Sir Gabe.
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Family Cruise IMO
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gabe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
but jesus christ man look at OP and ask yourself wtf does raising Ax or not have to do with the subject?
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connect the dots...if you arent sure read what jeff just wrote
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Genitruc
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plz see a few replies up :
Warpe : should have been more specific I guess. The "x" in "Ax" meant exactly that (x being any non-ace). The reason the "offsuitedness" was important is that your flushdraw is completely transparent on a monotone flop.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Ravageur
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10-19-2006, 05:49 PM
Post subject: Re: Draw to the Nuts... JohnGotti Style.
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#19 (permalink)
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Official Montreal SwampRat
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
1 - The nit almost definitely has all 1-pair hands beaten, so my over (Ace usually) isn't live. I am drawing to 9 outs at best.
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Why does it matter what X is? The poster made it clear that his second card was irrelevant because his read is that villain has 1-pair beaten.
The only thing that's relevant is that you have an over and the nut flush draw...what are your options. So I don't see why we need to fiddle over if you had A9 or A2.
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Family Cruise IMO
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Warpe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
Warpe : should have been more specific I guess. The "x" in "Ax" meant exactly that (x being any non-ace). The reason the "offsuitedness" was important is that your flushdraw is completely transparent on a monotone flop.
I'm thinking a two-tone flop changes things dramatically since at least you're more likely to get paid by 2pair/sets.
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Trouble is, anyone that's hit that flop hard with 2-pair/a set or has an overpair is going to/should play it fast. I'm inclined to check/call in these situations to keep the pot under control, fold if I'm not getting odds (which will be most of the time). A more aggro option would be to check/raise and rep a made flush... 
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Ravageur
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[/quote]If you never raise with Ax (with X less than T) OOP, you're never in this situation. So you avoid the problem altogether! AJ on a 3flush J high board is a lot stronger than A7 on a 7 high 3flush board, though, so its best to distinguish between the two as how big your TP here is relatively.[/quote]
WTF?!!! Where in the original post do we talk about having Top Pair? I'm just as baffled as Genitruc here. People just seem to be replying to some imaginary post. Obviously if you have top pair and the nut flush draw it makes a big fucking difference. But that's not what we're talking about here is it?
I think we can blame it on the fact that the words RIPJohnGotti were in the subject of the post thus forecasting certain doom on all replies.
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Family Cruise IMO
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Robert
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guys, lets cut the drama and talk poker.
And I agree with a lot of guys here, raising AT and A9 from the CO when button is a nit close to standard.
And to sum up my answer to heros question: folding >>> shoving >>>>>>>> calling.
And to Ahiltz - if we shove its not for value, but because we believe we have folding equity and we semibluff.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
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I like your idea about the fold. I think I call here too much, and end up folding the turn UI, and he folds when I hit. Nothing gained, lots lost.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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haha seriously i m with you Robert.
I think everyone's just going insane now that Party has shut down U.S. Traffic.
Also I thought my OP was pretty clear but apparently it was written in Swahili or something. Gotta work on that.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Ravageur
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Official Montreal SwampRat
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert
guys, lets cut the drama and talk poker.
And I agree with a lot of guys here, raising AT and A9 from the CO when button is a nit close to standard.
And to sum up my answer to heros question: folding >>> shoving >>>>>>>> calling.
And to Ahiltz - if we shove its not for value, but because we believe we have folding equity and we semibluff.
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Yeah calling is definitely the worse option here. Anything else is ok sometimes I think. Gabe actually posted a hand a while back that exemplified this exact situation in which he 3-bet pushed the flop. The replies to that thread are applicable here.
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Family Cruise IMO
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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Warpe I think the c/r flop is a line that has some sexiness to it.
Only prob is you don't get to take the pot down the 99% of the time the nit doesn't have a flopped monster.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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mods plz lock this thread so I can concentrate on watching the Lumberjack challenge.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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gabe
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10-19-2006, 06:05 PM
Post subject: Re: Draw to the Nuts... JohnGotti Style.
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#28 (permalink)
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rav/gen,
the 2nd card is onyl irrelevant if it is a rag, which is why so many people are saying it matters because you could be making alot of preflop mistakes. you both can keep acting like you are on some new level and we are all fools for mentioning such things but that wouldn't be helpful or constructive for anyone
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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gabe this has nothing to do with the "level" I'm on and everything to do with the situation described in OP.
The situation is YOU HAVE NUT FLUSH DRAW NO PAIR ON FLOP AND FACE AGGRESSION FROM NIT.
That is all. I stated "Ax" meaning A2, A3, A4, A5... AQ and AK. I clarified this point (Robert did, actually) a few replies down after it became clear I hadn't been specific enough in OP.
Whether I'm raising A2o utg or not is completely besides the point.
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Ravageur
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10-19-2006, 06:14 PM
Post subject: Re: Draw to the Nuts... JohnGotti Style.
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#30 (permalink)
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Official Montreal SwampRat
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
rav/gen,
the 2nd card is onyl irrelevant if it is a rag, which is why so many people are saying it matters because you could be making alot of preflop mistakes. you both can keep acting like you are on some new level and we are all fools for mentioning such things but that wouldn't be helpful or constructive for anyone
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uhh....all i said was that what we're talking about is what to do with this PRECISE situation : An over/nut flush draw facing heat.
THAT'S IT!!! It's not complicated. We can talk about preflop mistakes in another thread if you want...
As far as being on a new level...uh...ok? Feel free to make this into a 'who's penis is bigger' (I fold to you preflop) but plz try to deny that many posters have ignored what this thread is about, and have decided to focus on something that has nothing to do with the situation Genitruc put forth.
It is clear that Ax means that you have 1 over on the flop and NO pair. Thus it could be AQ on a King high flop or A2. Does that change anything? Plz exlain me how?
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Family Cruise IMO
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Ravageur
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LMAO, we just wrote the exact same post.
Gabe just got gangbanged.
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Family Cruise IMO
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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k seriously let's not let this become tribal wars ffs.
I'd be more than happy to drop it and focus on the female component of the Stihl Lumberjack Challenge that is just heating up as we spaek.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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gabe
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i dont think i can reach you
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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gabe i really, really want to stop this shit.
but that last post is just too much.
fyp : "I'm wrong but I'll pretend like it's really complicated or that original poster is extremely stubborn and make a dismissive post implying somehow someone doesn't get something that I'm saying".
for the love of god man give me a break
why do i take you so seriously so that it tilts me when you write stupid shit like this?
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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gabe
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what do i have to be wrong about? my last post was serious....you two dont have the slighest notion as to why people are hinting at things that dont directly answer your broad question. then your friend has the nerve to tell me i got gangbanged after both of you make responses still ignoring the hints??? wtf is that. i know you two are buds but that shit is just stupid.
the truth is you (and now i see your friend is the same) act like an ass when people are trying to help you, which is completely retarded. why should i try? i TRY to give advice all the time and the only thing i really expect is not to be disrespected.
if anyone else besides rav/gen want to talk about this i'd love to, but you aren't worth the waste in time.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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i can't vouch for rav gloatingly stating you "got gangbanged". that's his business.
If someone is interested in this kind of soap opera stuff and feels like rereading the thread and giving their opinion that would be cool.
if you are familiar with the hundreds of posts i ve made on ftr I think it's unfair to say that I act like an ass when people are trying to help me.
I got pissy with you in a recent post and in this post I tried to point the replies back to the initial question in a bitchy way.
I haven't been a poster for as long as you but I would hope that many posters are comfortable enough with me for me to be cajoling/bitchy/pissy because the ego-jousting is fun without ppl thinking I'm trying to go for their jugular.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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gabe
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ok thats fair
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mcatdog
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I think this had the potential to be a good thread before everyone had a hissy fit. Jesus, people. 
Genitruc, are you are you talking about a flop like 7 3 2 or a flop like K Q J? Obviously, there's a huge difference between the two in terms of how much folding equity you're likely to have if you come over the top all-in.
If your opponent is a pathetic nit who never raises the flop without a monster hand that he'll definitely call-in with, then just fold. Against an aggressive opponent, you stand to have more fold equity, so you should play back at him sometimes with a weak draw like this. But you can't do it every time you have a weak draw, or you'll find yourself all-in as an underdog more often than not. Try to figure out what his range is and how much fold equity you have against it, and come up with the best % of the time to semi-bluff in order to exploit the way he plays. Once I've decided that I want to raise 50% and fold 50% in this situation, I honestly might just flip a coin in order to make it impossible for him to get a read on me. Agreed that calling is awful, you don't have any implied odds and the only value of your hand is that you have folding equity and outs.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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I'm curious as to why you think how many high cards there are on the flop makes a difference mcat.
Would we have more or less fold equity vs a nit/aggro depending on this factor?
Is it because on the low flop ppl are more likely to be playing back with foldable overpairs?
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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elipsesjeff
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ravageur
WTF?!!! Where in the original post do we talk about having Top Pair? I'm just as baffled as Genitruc here. People just seem to be replying to some imaginary post. Obviously if you have top pair and the nut flush draw it makes a big fucking difference. But that's not what we're talking about here is it?
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The original post was edited!!!! I really don't know where I pulled that from, but maybe i just assumed because he said "raiser has all 1 pair hands beaten" which is completely untrue.
Frankly, this isn't that difficult to understand. Will he fold to a push? If yes, push, if not, don't push. If not, are you getting pot odds to call? If yes, call; if no, fold. Usually your opponent will give you good odds to call with his aggression, and I can't associate a raise from a tight player to automatically mean two pair or better. What does this tight player call with? Broadway cards, pocket pairs, monsters, who knows?
And where do you get 18% draw on the flop in the OP?
The type of flop does matter somewhat. Is villain more likely to have a set on a 247 board or a JQK board facing a preflop raise and he just flat calls? Which is he likely to have two pair more often?
This is really nothing more than a pot odds/folding equity situation.
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Fnord
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I want my 2 min of life back.
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Robert
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Genitruc,
What about c/r this flop instead of just c-betting`? I'm wondering if c-betting this kind of flop is less profitable instead of checkraising. I know the correct answer depends on what exactly is on the board, but checkraising might yield more opportunities than just c-betting.
Anyway, I'm drunk right now, but I thought a lot on this hand tonight, so I just wanted to post my thoughts.
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Genitruc
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my condolences Fnord. sry for my part in those 2 mins being flushed down the toilet.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Robert
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Full House
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I would also like to say that I like both gabe and genitruc, and I think they are both contributing g00t to this forum. Thx guys!
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Genitruc
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Jeff :
not sure bout the OP being edited... maybe i edited in the part about the starting cards not being suited, which was important.
the 18% was just approximate chance of making flush on turn (what is it, anyways... 19% or something?)
good point about the texture of the flop. Seems like a nit will more likely have 2 pair on a KQ9 ish flop and a set on a 248 ish flop. Still doesn't really change the equity calculations all that much. The big diff is prob that a nit will be able to find a fold of 2 pair when possible flush/straight on board but almost never with a set.
therefore, maybe more fold equity on the high card board?
Robert, yeah I think the c/r is an interesting line but not sure it's all that more +ev than just c-betting since the nit will fold so often to the c-bet.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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oops just realized u were joking bout OP being edited Jeff
god i m thick.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Robert
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Full House
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Genitruc,
When you say he's a nit, does that mean he's def. not tag (especially in regards to postflop aggression)? What is his stats and over how many hands?
What makes any other moves than c-betting the flop intersting is that your hand has some value (including showdown value with ace-high) but it cant really stand aggression on the flop that gives you insufficiont pot odds to call.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert
Genitruc,
When you say he's a nit, does that mean he's def. not tag (especially in regards to postflop aggression)? What is his stats and over how many hands?
What makes any other moves than c-betting the flop intersting is that your hand has some value (including showdown value with ace-high) but it cant really stand aggression on the flop that gives you insufficiont pot odds to call.
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by nit i mean someone who will rarely - if ever - 3 bet post-flop without 2 pair or better and will fold a lot of marginal holdings on a flop (someone not prone at all to float). Many of these players are small winners even at nl400 because the fish pay them off (and aggro donks like me do all too often). I'm not sure what stats these would translate to but prob something like 15/9/0.8 over 100+ hands.
The point is, when faced with 3-bet aggression from this type of player, it's either his "big move" of the night or a flopped monster.
Usually, this kind of player will simply smooth-call things like 2nd pair or a hidden pp (i.e. JJ on K-high board).
Since we hold the Ace for the a-high flush it's unlikely the nit is making a pair + flushdraw type move (possibly w k-high draw but not even sure bout that).
I do like the c/raise (or maybe even a check/call?) but in terms of ev, the # of times a c-bet will take down the pot or be answered by a smooth-call (building the pot for our draw yay) makes it a pretty solid option imo.
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Genitruc
I'm curious as to why you think how many high cards there are on the flop makes a difference mcat.
Would we have more or less fold equity vs a nit/aggro depending on this factor?
Is it because on the low flop ppl are more likely to be playing back with foldable overpairs?
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Yes, I think on the low flop someone is more likely to be raising with a decent suited overpair that they could fold if you went all-in. On the high card flop, it's so likely that the flop nailed your hand that I just can't fathom a nit raising without a monster.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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i thought A9o+ were standard raising values in all positions other than blinds at sixmax
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