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Robb
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04-28-2008, 09:23 PM
Post subject: Draw = Shove 25nl
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Villain is 25/14/1.7 over 200 hands. Shove the turn?
$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($38.81)
UTG 1 ($82.38)
Hero ($23.54)
BTN ($19.40)
SB ($47.21)
BB ($47.74)
Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO  
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.1, 1 fold, SB calls $1, 1 fold
Flop:    ($2.45, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.72, SB calls $1.72
Turn:  ($5.89, 2 players)
SB bets $3.44, Hero goes all-in $20.72, SB calls $17.28
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meeloche
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,131
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yes
edit{i guess this sorta close cause his stats aren't super donkish but I think I still play it the same as you.}
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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For the interested: http://weaktight.com/176234
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I don't like it. His numbers are pretty standard for mediocre players at those stakes, which means that his line (call raise, check/call flop, then lead the turn) yells out "I HAVE A HAND," and he's likely not folding to your push - so your fold equity is a lot lower than you'd like, and parts of your draw may be dirty. I think the low end of his range is like KQ, and pretty often he has QJ, AK, 89, 33, or TT. I suspect under the circumstances I'd rather call and get it in on a diamond or king river, call or value bet an 8 (probably), and fold if you miss and he bets. (An ace is a clear check behind or fold.)
I'd like to see a lot more risk analysis going on around here with regard to these type of hands. I feel like there's a new(ish) philosophy of playing any good draw hard and fast, but with just one card to come and a non-awful player showing strength, there's a lot weighing against this kind of move.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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12 outs is 3:1 his bet gives us nearly that so let's just call and get him with the implied odds ldo.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Call the turn please.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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I think he has 2pair or better a lot, so yah call turn
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Thx - in hindsight, I overestimated my fold equity. Shoulda called.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.
I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.
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Just playing to improve.
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.
I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.
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they do on stars. I don't shove the turn a lot here though.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pankfish
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.
I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.
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they do on stars. I don't shove the turn a lot here though. |
They'll fold if they haven't shown any initiative. I would expect to get called here a lot.
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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pankfish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On Tony Romo's nuts
Posts: 385
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pankfish
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.
I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.
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they do on stars. I don't shove the turn a lot here though. |
They'll fold if they haven't shown any initiative. I would expect to get called here a lot. |
Yeah, I agree this isn't a good spot to do it.
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<Staxalax> I want everyone to put my quote in their sigs
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