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deepstacks: flop TPTK nut flush draw (FINAL RESULTS POSTED)

  
 
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alias2211
Old 09-27-2006, 12:39 AM     Post subject: deepstacks: flop TPTK nut flush draw (FINAL RESULTS POSTED) #1 (permalink)  
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seems like most sessions are defined by a hand or two, sandwiched between tons of boring ass small pots along the way. here is my excitement for the night. i am really interested in hearing how people play this flop, since i obviously had some options. i will update this topic with updates after each street, but would like to see a few comments on each street before i post the next move.

my read on the opponent is that he is aggressive but didn't really wear on me. his stats are 45/26/AF2.0, doing most of his betting on the flop. i was running around 27/20 today. i hadn't gotten mixed up w/ villain at this or any other table tonight.
================================

SB ($986.90)
Hero ($764.40)
UTG ($144)
MP ($395.60)
Button ($303.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A.
UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, Button calls $12, SB raises to $52, Hero calls $48, UTG folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($128) K, 3, J (2 players)
SB bets $128, Hero ...
In answer to your question... it depends...
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Fnord
Old 09-27-2006, 12:43 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Is he firing again a lot if we call?

With TPTK and the big draw locked up, I'm in no rush to protect anything or blow worse hands out of the pot.
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gabe
Old 09-27-2006, 01:48 AM #3 (permalink)  
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fold preflop or put in another raise against this player
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dsaxton
Old 09-27-2006, 02:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'd want to maximize fold equity / value immediately and raise to $450. There are really only two hands you're realistically worried about and those are A-A and J-J (the case kings are fairly unlikely). If he has A-A, this is a terrible flop for him, and you may be able to get him to fold the best hand with a raise. If he has J-J, he will go all-in, and you will have to call as an underdog, but oh well.

I also don't really like calling a raise and a reraise cold with A-K unless I'm against very loose raisers, in which case reraising might be best as gabe said.
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alias2211
Old 09-27-2006, 04:35 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Is he firing again a lot if we call?
he is less aggressive on turn but still at least betting 50% of 2nd barrel opportunities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
With TPTK and the big draw locked up, I'm in no rush to protect anything or blow worse hands out of the pot.
This was my first thought, too, given my position especially.
In answer to your question... it depends...
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alias2211
Old 09-27-2006, 04:46 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
fold preflop or put in another raise against this player
my default play there is to fold a reraise like that OOP. i mostly do that. but this spot is unique: the combination of two shortstacks behind me and his deep stack made me think that if UTG pushed for $100 more, SB would also have to push if he had AA/KK/QQ to get me off the damn pot and isolate against shorty. however, i do not think he would push with JJ/1010/AK/AQ. accordingly, i felt like he would reveal the strength of his hand if action went back around but that never happened. fortunately i got that flop. so even though i didn't have a clue where i was, at least i had a shot w/ position.
In answer to your question... it depends...
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alias2211
Old 09-27-2006, 04:49 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I'd want to maximize fold equity / value immediately and raise to $450. There are really only two hands you're realistically worried about and those are A-A and J-J (the case kings are fairly unlikely). If he has A-A, this is a terrible flop for him, and you may be able to get him to fold the best hand with a raise. If he has J-J, he will go all-in, and you will have to call as an underdog, but oh well.
if i'm worried about only two hands why do i want him to fold?
In answer to your question... it depends...
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-27-2006, 05:06 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Is he firing again a lot if we call?

With TPTK and the big draw locked up, I'm in no rush to protect anything or blow worse hands out of the pot.
Does that mean if yes call or if no call?

I don't think the answer matters. If checked to on turn, do you take it down or free card it? Chances of your bet having any value are approaching zero.


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bdawg56kg
Old 09-27-2006, 05:45 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I'd 4-bet pf against this type of guy. As played, I'd call flop and push over a turn bet. If he checks the turn, I might underbet to induce a raise, if you think he's that aggro.
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alias2211
Old 09-27-2006, 02:34 PM #10 (permalink)  
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OK thanks for comments on PF and flop. here is my flop move and turn:

Flop: Hero calls $128.

Turn: ($384) A (2 players)
SB bets $384, Hero ...
In answer to your question... it depends...
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Fnord
Old 09-27-2006, 02:38 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Well, you got this far. I'd just stick the rest in.
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r8ed
Old 09-27-2006, 03:27 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Well, you got this far. I'd just stick the rest in.
Don't jump the gun. Villain only invested $180.

It seems obvious he has a set without a diamond. Your only outs may be a diamond and an ace. I think this is a crying fold. His reraise preflop and willingness to build this pot in a hurry seem strong. I mean, he reraised from the small blind into two opponents. That's AA/KK/QQ/JJ and sometimes it's AK and TT (unless you have seen him reraise more OOP). You beat QQ and TT and split AK. There's no way he's going this hard with QQ/TT on this board.
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alias2211
Old 09-27-2006, 05:27 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
Don't jump the gun. Hero has only invested $180.
FYP, villain has now put in $550.
In answer to your question... it depends...
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Old 09-27-2006, 07:34 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alias2211
OK thanks for comments on PF and flop. here is my flop move and turn:

Flop: Hero calls $128.

Turn: ($384) A (2 players)
SB bets $384, Hero ...
This is another reason why you raise the flop, to avoid difficult decisions on later streets.

Put your money in the pot at the point when you have the greatest equity when behind (the flop).
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Fnord
Old 09-27-2006, 08:30 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
This is another reason why you raise the flop, to avoid difficult decisions on later streets.
That's weak. We'd really like for him to fire a second barrel here because our hand has enough equity to stare him down. We're up against a far wider betting range than calling range from worse hands on this board.
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-27-2006, 08:59 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 FWIW, I think you see AK here just as likely as AA, KK and JJ combined. Why would AK slow down now that he two pair? I'm with Fnord, you're either 1) chopping the pot and freerolling for the win or 2)drawing to one of 9-13 outs in a big pot.

I'm def not folding.


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Old 09-27-2006, 11:37 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Old 09-28-2006, 12:01 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
FWIW, I think you see AK here just as likely as AA, KK and JJ combined.
Board: Kc Jc 6c Ad

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.2273 % 20.45% 39.77% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 39.7727 % 00.00% 39.77% { AKs, AKo }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.8182 % 26.82% 00.00% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 73.1818 % 73.18% 00.00% { KK+, JJ }

So that's 43%.

588/1528=38%. Pretty close but gamb000l.
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dsaxton
Old 09-28-2006, 06:39 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
We'd really like for him to fire a second barrel here because our hand has enough equity to stare him down.
Your hand doesn't have much equity when he pots the turn after you call a pot bet on the flop.
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alias2211
Old 09-28-2006, 06:45 AM #20 (permalink)  
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well when the ace fell, i knew i was in until the end, it was more just a matter of how to play it. calling the turn is best.

Turn: ($384) A (2 players)
SB bets $384, Hero calls $384.

River: ($1152) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $422.9 (All-In), Hero calls $200.40 (All-In).

Final Pot: $1775.30

What's he got?
In answer to your question... it depends...
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Old 09-28-2006, 07:13 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alias2211
What's he got?
JJ although that's just as likely as AK, but I pick JJ.
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alias2211
Old 09-29-2006, 02:57 PM #22 (permalink)  
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River: ($1152) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $422.9 (All-In), Hero calls $200.40 (All-In).

Villain flips 10d 10s.

Final Pot: $1775.30



villain's turn was teh suck. i had $584 behind and he leads out for $384. that bet size only makes sense if he is so worried about getting me off the hand that he can't think about how to properly size the bet. leaving me with only $200 was a big mistake. if he had open pushed he could have gotten me to at least _consider_ laying down, repping a set or miracle flopped flush that doesn't want to see a board 4 flush. betting into an opponent for 2/3 of his stack in a spot like this is the worst amount you can bet.
In answer to your question... it depends...
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 09-29-2006, 03:45 PM #23 (permalink)  
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 so what did he have? was it a pure bluff? AA or JJ?
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