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gabe
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01-16-2007, 06:44 PM
Post subject: crazy nth level thinking vs lukie
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
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im not sure how much the average small stakes grinder can get from this, but try putting both of us on hands.
ive seen lukie make some spewy plays the past couple days (which is a big deal because usually he is so nitty). however, he knows this and i think he is trying to play better.
ive been playing back at him alot the past few days, but today i was pretty straightforward. im not sure if he knows this.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
saw flop|saw showdown
BB ($2014)
Hero ($1961)
Preflop: Hero is Button with x, x
Hero raises to $30, BB calls $20.
Flop: ($60) T , 9 , 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB calls $50.
Turn: ($160) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
River: ($160) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $133, BB raises to $266, Hero raises to $1881, BB folds.
Final Pot: $2307
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Headsup don't you raise almost any two from the button?
I think you look like you have 98 or T9, possibly a 96.
Lukie probably has a hand with a 7 in it.
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gabe
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from my POV, what about pushing a 7 or a purebluff on river to get him to fold a straight?
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
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I'd think you're full of it. I dont see many hands that you'd push on the river that you'd also check behind on the turn with.
If you had two pair/set/straight I'd expect you to bet again on the turn.
If I had to put you on a hand it'd be two spades with a J.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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gabe flopped a set. He checks the turn because lukie might not call any more w/out a striaght on this board, and if he boats up when Lukie hits a flush or straight, then he will stack him.
He hit his board, and didn't stack him, hence lukie must have had nothing better than TPWK.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
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Apparently the standard reads aren't right since we are supposedly dealing with some super advanced poker thinking here.
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
gabe flopped a set. He checks the turn because lukie might not call any more w/out a striaght on this board, and if he boats up when Lukie hits a flush or straight, then he will stack him.
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Giving a free card on a board that draw heavy is pretty bad if you have a set.
If he is drawing to a straight and hits, gabe doesn't fill.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Giving a free card on a board that draw heavy is pretty bad if you have a set.
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If you bet, he usually folds unless he has a straight in which case he will often raise and you have to put in more money with the worst hand or get blown off a legitimate draw. In a sense it's a reverse implied odds situation. You can also induce a loose river call or a bluff after showing weakness on the turn. I think checking behind on the turn with a set is a fine play.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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I stand by my thinking that Gabe has a full house. He definitely could've checked two pair behind on that turn.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
gabe flopped a set. He checks the turn because lukie might not call any more w/out a striaght on this board, and if he boats up when Lukie hits a flush or straight, then he will stack him.
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Giving a free card on a board that draw heavy is pretty bad if you have a set. |
One man's "pretty bad" is another's "crazy N-th level thinking"...
Quote:
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If he is drawing to a straight and hits, gabe doesn't fill.
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Hmm... maybe TOO crazy n-th level thinking...
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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It makes way too much sense that gabe has a full house so I think
he probably has some under pp or missed straight draw.
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dsaxton
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Guys, this is crazy n-th level thinking, so clearly he doesn't have a full house. He already told us the type of hand he probably had in one of the first replies.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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looks to me like you both might have air
pretty hard to call you push without J7 or better
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Guys, this is crazy n-th level thinking, so clearly he doesn't have a full house. He already told us the type of hand he probably had in one of the first replies.
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No, that is just what you are SUPPOSED to think he has... hence, full house. <grin>
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Fnord
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The fact Gabe is capable of bluffing here puts Lukie to a tough decision. Although this looks a lot like air from Lukie. Fail that Lukie has a weak straight or under-full and min-raised the river for pot control.
Thinking further, would Gabe make this play with 7x? Perhaps to induce a heroic call, build mistrust and/or get Luke to fold a split?
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gabe
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do those saying lukie might have air, i doubt he would minraise with it, especially out of position. theres a chance but i think most players (not just lukie) would make a real raise size as a bluff
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
do those saying lukie might have air, i doubt he would minraise with it, especially out of position. theres a chance but i think most players (not just lukie) would make a real raise size as a bluff
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which is why it's a good bluff... since we re dealing "nth level thinking"
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
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I think lukie has a 7, or possibly 9x.
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Lukie
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approx. 1700 to win 700 from gabe's perspective when he thinks I'm never bluffing... doesn't seem like a good spot to bluff.
I think gabe filled up on the river here most of the time. I don't think he's betting air here on the river initially after checking back the turn because I probably snap call too much in these spots and he knows it.
It would be very sick if he was value betting a 9 then bluffed when I raised. lol.
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gabe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
It would be very sick if he was value betting a 9 then bluffed when I raised. lol.
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thanks!
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
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So in other words:
Lukie: 7x
gabe: 9x
right?
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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gabe
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i dont know; he folded and wont tell
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i dont know; he folded and wont tell
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lol. is this entire thread an attempt to get lukie to show his cards?
Thats some pretty crazy nth-level thinking!
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Warpe
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gabe posts Lukiepwnage for metagame purposes.
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gabe
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regardless of his cards, this hand shows off some higher level thinking that should interest some of you
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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So you don't think lukie actually had a 7 at all?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
regardless of his cards, this hand shows off some higher level thinking that should interest some of you
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I think the play would have been better if it wasn't Lukie, however, this hand shows a good hand balancing strategy.
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uscheese
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 558
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I think Gabe had 4 9's and so did Lukie
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i dont know; he folded and wont tell
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interestingly enough, I don't even know what gabe had.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
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both of you just fess up to what you had.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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gabe
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Moderator
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q9, pretty sure lukie had a 7
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bode-ist
both of you just fess up to what you had.
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I told gabe a while ago.. A7
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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once gabe threebets, lukie makes a huge EV mistake on this river no matter what doesn't he (assuming gayb is playing a balanced strategy)?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
once gabe threebets, lukie makes a huge EV mistake on this river no matter what doesn't he (assuming gayb is playing a balanced strategy)?
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This can't be right. I think you mean that I am put to a very tough decision and it's very hard to get it right, especially given that I know (even before this hand) he is capable of bluffing here. 'bluffing' a hand with a lot of showdown here, like Q9, from his end makes it even more complicated.
The game is so dynamic which is what makes it so hard.
FWIW, my plan was to induce this shove by min-raising and then call it. After running my timer down and thinking about it, I convinced myself otherwise. I still think it was a good fold.
I figured he'd call with hands like Q9 and most other stuff he was trying to get thin value from, fold the garbage, and occasionally bluff shove. I felt his range of bluff shoving would probably be wider then usual at 200bb deep, given how strangely I played the hand on all streets.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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I think Renton just meant that with balanced strategy, and with a substantial amount of money in the pot, villan's call is always -EV, it's just a matter of which decision is less -EV.
I'm not sure this is the case with this decision. Just because someone has balanced strategy doesn't mean he's always putting opp in -EV situations does it?
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
gayb
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the drunk "bahamas" gabe would fight you for saying this
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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gabe
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i dont know how to respond to that. will someone plz tell me is joking? it would be too funny if he was trying to bring me down..
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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lol
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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<------------------- not in the esteemed FTR gabehater club.
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gabe
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fortunately i think the gabehater club has been disbanded now that ive chilled with doggz and lamb
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I think Renton just meant that with balanced strategy, and with a substantial amount of money in the pot, villan's call is always -EV, it's just a matter of which decision is less -EV.
I'm not sure this is the case with this decision. Just because someone has balanced strategy doesn't mean he's always putting opp in -EV situations does it?
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folding is and always is neutral EV. Whether a call is +EV or -EV (or 0EV theoretically) depends on gayb's range.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
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We need a random girl to flash her boobs at us now.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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bode
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i dont know how to respond to that. will someone plz tell me is joking? it would be too funny if he was trying to bring me down..
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i was just kidding. I also voted "no" in the latest "do you hate gabe" survey. it just seemed like 2-3 times in teh bahamas thread you were ready to throw down.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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gabe
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Moderator
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yea i knew you were kidding, i should have quoted renton
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gabe
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Moderator
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BUT FUCK THAT SHIT LETS FIGHT
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Robert
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
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*FLASHES BOOBS*
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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whoops my bad
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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also, talking more about EV, gabe isn't this a pretty high risk / low reward bluff? Im not precisely working the math, but you have to make him fold at least like 80% of the time don't u?
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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folding is and always is neutral EV. Whether a call is +EV or -EV (or 0EV theoretically) depends on gayb's range.
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how can this be true, theres 550 in the pot to be won. |
Really?
If you fold you don't win anything 100% of the time. 100% * 0 = 0eV
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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folding is and always is neutral EV. Whether a call is +EV or -EV (or 0EV theoretically) depends on gayb's range.
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how can this be true, theres 550 in the pot to be won. |
Really?
If you fold you don't win anything 100% of the time. 100% * 0 = 0eV |
whoops my bad
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