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Poker Forum |
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| meeloche |
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Hand #1 Villain is an ok reg. At 6 max he plays looser than most tag's but I'd still call him a tag. We haven't been playing hu long as we're just trying to start 6 max games. He has a high 4 bet percent and I don't think he's liable to slowplay a big hand pre that often. What's the best river line here, Shoving as a bluff or c/f? No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com SB ($633) Hero (BB) ($661) Preflop: Hero is BB with K  , 4SB bets $9, Hero raises $42, SB calls $36 Flop: ($96) A , 10 , 4 (2 players)Hero bets $60, SB calls $60 Turn: ($216) Q (2 players)Hero bets $138, SB calls $138 River: ($492) K  (2 players)Hero? (~400 left) Hand #2 Villain is your average tag. I haven't played with him that much and we don't have any history. Is this just an easy bet if so how do you size it? I don't expect him to call with Kx all that often or turn it into a bluff if I check fwiw. No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com saw flop Button ($690) Hero (SB) ($630) BB ($922.20) UTG ($642.30) MP ($498) CO ($1380.25) Preflop: Hero is SB with 10 , A4 folds, Hero bets $18, BB calls $15 Flop: ($42) 6 , A, K (2 players)Hero bets $30, BB calls $30 Turn: ($102) 3 (2 players)Hero bets $72, BB calls $72 River: ($246) 3 (2 players)Hero? |
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| Alexos |
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check 1 c/shove 2 (c/c if ure a nit) |
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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| Renton |
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Don't have strong opinion either way about hand one, i just wanted to mention that I believe k4s to be one of the worst possible 3bet hands vs a minraise button open hu. As for hand 2, is it just super level one 2006 that I check the turn here? |
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| gabe |
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| pocketfours |
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1. shove 2. c/shove |
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| IowaSkinsFan |
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1: c/f 2: Overbet slightly |
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Check out the new blog!!!
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| Renton |
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As far as 3betting K4s, I just think it is bad firstly because its taking a hand that is solidly in the realm of being able to call for a profit and turning into 'air'. But mostly I think it is bad because I believe 3-betting oop with deep stacks (minraise simulates deep stacks)is not a very effective strategy with weak hands. |
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| Dragon Slayer |
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| Luke999 |
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Shove hand 1. C/C hand 2. |
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| IowaSkinsFan |
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Check out the new blog!!!
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| pocketfours |
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LOL nobody takes same line on both hands 
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| Dex |
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Until now  Hand 1 - Check because I don't really expect to be bluffed when villain likely has a lot of showdown value vs our river checking range. It's hard to see villain's range in this spot being better two pairs that we'd want/need to bluff out. Hand 2 - If every ace splits with us apart from AK, A6 and A3, which we can potentially discount, we lose to 66 which we can discount somewhat for being flatted 2 streets, we beat passive flush draws that don't have showdown value, and your read is we won't get value from Kx, I likey the check/shove. Overbetting is a valid choice but I prefer check/shove. |
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| ATOTHEC101 |
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Ones close, I don't think shoving is a bluff, def for value, I'd probably jam if he's suspicious. Two I'd c/r all in, against better players I'd just overbet big. |
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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| IowaSkinsFan |
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| I dont understand all these c/ring all in comments on this hand | ||
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Check out the new blog!!!
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| Luke999 |
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| edit: didn't see the board texture, i understand C/R now | ||
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| Alexos |
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although your line makes him fold splits more often. |
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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| pocketfours |
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Those who want to c/f #1 because of two combos are smoking some bad weed. Where is my friend the griffo when I need him??? WP Luke. |
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| Alexos |
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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| pocketfours |
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| pocketfours |
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| The EV of shoving is the same whether you do it for the values of the valuetowns or for any other reason. | ||
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| griffey24 |
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Why do you think he only has two combos in hand 1? Even I'd c/f this! Though I'd like to balance c/f this with actually checking some J's here. The better question is what hands do you think he's bluffing? The only bluff hands that make sense are Ax bad kicker and 9T or something. I think he has more than two combos though. 3 combos of QJss, 3 combos of AJss, he might even have KJ sometimes and JTss sometimes. Not to mention the occasional value jam with AQ since he thinks we never have Jx. |
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| nutsinho |
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1- c/f 2- overbet i dont think either is very close |
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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| meeloche |
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I was never considering shoving for value in hand 1 since that seems insane to me. I certainly don't have the image for that and I'd never expect him to call with worse. I wasn't sure how much of his range was folding if I shoved so I checked. he ended up having KQ. I didn't even think about over betting in 2 which makes me glad I posted this hand. |
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| pocketfours |
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There is five hundred dollars in the pot. Why are we giving it to him again? All I'm saying is that c/f here vs me is just handing me the pot on a silver platter. Maybe it's fine against some weak reg, whatever. Or maybe I just play bad? |
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| griffey24 |
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If he's really aggro though, I kind of like the c/bomb line to get him to bluff spades. |
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| pocketfours |
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| gabe |
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| Numbr2intheWorld |
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Hand 1 c/f hand 2 pot or something that could possibly get him to call with something worse. I feel like overshove is the only way you get a split to fold. |
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Check out my blog http://suited-aces.com
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| AnTman_69 |
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| Do u guys ever overbet for value in hand 2? Does balance not matter so much on this particular board. | ||
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| griffey24 |
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Either he calls and we chop or he folds and we win what would have been a chop. Seems like value to me. |
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| Alexos |
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I don't get why we would want to shove hand 1, at all. When I think of his range, there are a bunch of Jx combos, a bunch of better 2pr hands that might or might not fold, and some marginal hands (Ax,QT, etc.) that he'll prob check behind on river that we beat, but never calls a shove with. I feel like the only way a shove is good is if we fold out everything but Jx, or if he calls a shove with worse. I don't think either is true from an average TAG. |
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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| gabe |
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"I feel like the only way a shove is good is if we fold out everything but Jx" yea....thats the point because most of the things that he has better than Jx aren't that good relative to our perceived bet bet shove range |
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| pocketfours |
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| Does this TAG call 4x 3bet with A9s-A2s? | ||
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| Alexos |
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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| Numbr2intheWorld |
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Check out my blog http://suited-aces.com
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| gabe |
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| ya. if hes folding KQ i think shoving is better than checking. is he calling KQ though ??? thats the question | ||
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| meeloche |
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| pocketfours |
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| Well that pretty much leaves QTdd and QTcc the only two hands that we beat that will probably not bet if we check. And does he even call with those pre is uncertain. | ||
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| IowaSkinsFan |
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Check out the new blog!!!
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| Ravageur |
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Late to the thread, but count me in the c/fold 1, bet big hand 2 camp. In hand 2 I don't really think he's bluffing flush draws all that much on such a dry board, people seem to just be giving up with them a lot in the past year, but maybe that's caus i'm such a station so they no longer bluff me. For hand 1, we need to weight the times he has AJ/KJ/QJ to the times he folds KQ/Q10/A10 (i think he folds the first two maybe but not the 3rd). I can't imagine ever getting called by worse so we can discount value shoving. |
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Family Cruise IMO
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| Numbr2intheWorld |
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| Shoving k4 and getting called would have insanely awesome metagame too. hmmm | ||
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Check out my blog http://suited-aces.com
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| gabe |
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another reason not to check is if he turns a hand into a bluff then we make a huuuge mistake "i can't imagine ever getting called by worse so we can discount value shoving." whats the worst hand we can shove and get called by worse? knowing that threshold can give us a good enough range of hands where we can count combos and do some math |
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| pocketfours |
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It's a funny spot because I would rather shove TTT/444 for value than AAA. With AAA I think c/c is probably best, hoping he turns weaker hands into bluffs. I feel like AK is the worst hand i would shove for value, but even that might be a c/f? |
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| Mr. Diamond |
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1 - c/f 2 - c/shove |
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| IowaSkinsFan |
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If we shove, how much do we actually have a J? Very, very little. Does this mean opp is going to call with less than a Jack? Its certainly a factor in favor of us giving some positive % to the possibility. It also means there are almost know range value considerations here, meaning this bluff has to work in a vacuum for it to be +EV, compared to other bluffs with wide value ranges where this doesn't necessarily have to be the case. I'm all down for doing thin bluffs when there are tons of metagame and range considerations, but not when its vacuum like this and the math on whether the vacuum bluff is good even in a perfect scenario for our bluff seems close. |
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| gabe |
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as a reminder, i never said i thought shoving was the best play. a few things: -its OK that we don't actually have a jack. we have AQ+ in our range and he doesnt. -from the description of the player i would guess hes the type that could turn a3 or t9ss into a bluff on the river. -we aren't going to win that often when we check (and we might even lose the pot if we have the best hand because of the last point) if hes calling with KQ is he calling with a9? seems like he should call both or fold both, right? |
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| gabe |
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| pocketfours |
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Here's a rough estimation of combos and best action against that hand: 1x TJss shove 1x 45ss shove (discounted) 3x A2s shove 3x A3s shove 3x A5s shove 3x A6s shove 3x A7s shove 3x A8s shove 3x A9s shove 2x QTs shove 2x A4s close 6x KQ close 3x QJs c/f 12x AJ c/f 3x TJs c/f 2x KJs c/f (discounted) 9x AQ c/f (discounted) 3x 44 c/f (discounted) 3x TT c/f (discounted) 9x AT c/f (discounted) EV of shoving against the c/f hands is -$400. EV of shoving against the rest is some positive number which is fairly hard to quantify. EV of shoving against any weaker hand he turns into a bluff when we check is $492. EV of shoving against a weaker hand is $892 if villain calls (somewhat unlikely). Simply too much uncertainty involving this hand to finalize the math. Does he flat Axs pre? Does he ever call with worse? Does he fold A4s/KQ to a shove? Does he shove the turn with two pair? Does he turn top pair into a bluff? As an example we can assume that I am villain and do the math. I would flat Axs pre, I would also turn ALL one pair hands into bluffs when checked to and I would fold both A4s and KQ to a river shove. I would also not slowplay the turn. So against me c/f is only going to win if I'm holding exactly QTcc or QTdd. EV of shoving: 31x$492 - 28x$400 / 59 = $4052 / 59 = $68 EV of c/f = 57x$0 + 2x$492 / 59 = $984 / 59 = $16 Shoving wins against me, but did I misplay the hand? I still don't think it's an easy decision and it's an interesting hand for sure. |
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| meeloche |
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| very interesting analysis p4's thanks for doing that. | ||
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| gabe |
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| yea glad you did that. what do you guys think now | ||
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