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Combo draw; ALL IN!!

  
 
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JL
Old 12-13-2006, 03:51 AM     Post subject: Combo draw; ALL IN!! #1 (permalink)  
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Judging by his Insta-push on the flop, I can rule out a set (and 2 pair probably) can't I?

So, easy call then?

GAME #461937978: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1 2006-12-11 23:10:41
Table Harrington (6 max)
Seat 1: cheeseweezle ($103.11 in chips)
Seat 3: hson ($95.85 in chips)
Seat 5: j0nnyb0y ($127.45 in chips)
Seat 6: Berdugo ($44.35 in chips)
Seat 8: Amzig ($70.80 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: katsumi ($69.15 in chips)
katsumi: Post SB $0.50
cheeseweezle: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to j0nnyb0y :Ac: :Jc:
hson: Fold
j0nnyb0y: Raise $4.00
Berdugo: Fold
Amzig: Fold
katsumi: Fold
cheeseweezle: Call $3.00
*** FLOP ***
cheeseweezle: Bet $6.00
j0nnyb0y: Raise $15.00
cheeseweezle: Insta-pushes Allin $93.11
j0nnyb0y: Call $84.11
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euphoricism
Old 12-13-2006, 04:03 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You can rule out no such thing. Without more info, this is a pretty "ok" spot to call.
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Harry
Old 12-13-2006, 04:09 AM #3 (permalink)  
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A set is def. a possibility here.
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JL
Old 12-13-2006, 04:13 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
You can rule out no such thing. Without more info, this is a pretty "ok" spot to call.
True...but he is a donk...donks tend to slow play sets and 2 pair do they not???
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bigspenda73
Old 12-13-2006, 04:17 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JL
Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
You can rule out no such thing. Without more info, this is a pretty "ok" spot to call.
True...but he is a donk...donks tend to slow play sets and 2 pair do they not???
Not on this board, they'd be afraid of it
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-13-2006, 06:22 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I don't think ever going all in with a flush draw with almost 2 to 1 on the flop is ever bad enough to talk about.
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givememyleg
Old 12-13-2006, 07:27 AM #7 (permalink)  
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What's the combination?

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Halv
Old 12-13-2006, 09:00 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Runner runner royal obv.

I call flop.

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bode
Old 12-13-2006, 11:00 AM #9 (permalink)  
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im not seeing the combo draw either.
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Lukie
Old 12-13-2006, 11:39 AM #10 (permalink)  
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seems like a pretty easy call
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Harry
Old 12-13-2006, 04:49 PM #11 (permalink)  
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If the call is -ev, its only slightly so.
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griffey24
Old 12-13-2006, 05:00 PM     Post subject: combo? #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bode-ist
im not seeing the combo draw either.
Maybe the combo is the possible outs his overcards give him?...
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jyms
Old 12-13-2006, 05:17 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I'm confused. This is nowhere near 2:1 to call. Is it really ok to call a possible set all in with just a flush draw and a runner runner str8 draw. he easily has 44, 77, AT but likeky JJ. It's $84 to call into a $122 pot, I never have called this. Should I?? With a OESD draw and flush draw maybe. But I need to know why you would call this.
 
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Halv
Old 12-13-2006, 05:35 PM #14 (permalink)  
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I ran a possible likely range for an unknown player; sets, overpairs, combodraws:

Board: Tc 7c 4s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.2623 % 39.21% 00.05% { AcJc }
Hand 2: 60.7377 % 60.69% 00.05% { TT+, 77, 44, 9c8c }

We're getting 40.6% pot odds, so given this range (and no chance for pure bluffs) the call is slightly -EV. However, the read is that villain is a donk. His range is obviously wider.

I expect to see a worse draw here alot.

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Lukie
Old 12-13-2006, 05:55 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
I'm confused. This is nowhere near 2:1 to call. Is it really ok to call a possible set all in with just a flush draw and a runner runner str8 draw. he easily has 44, 77, AT but likeky JJ. It's $84 to call into a $122 pot, I never have called this. Should I?? With a OESD draw and flush draw maybe. But I need to know why you would call this.
if he's aggro, there's a decent possibility that we're already good (there are many worse draws that this villain could b3bai with), and you have to consider that our overcards give us some added equity as well. Sure, they might be dead to a set sometimes, but other times the A might be live against a KK that just called preflop, or the J might be live against AT (pretty unlikely IMO but possible), or both might be live agaainst something like 4xcc. Calling here is at worst a small mistake against some ranges, and a pretty bad mistake against others.
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euphoricism
Old 12-13-2006, 06:24 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Yeah I agree. I dont mind a call, but I certainly wouldnt fault you for finding a better spot against the moron.
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Lukie
Old 12-13-2006, 06:27 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
I'm confused. This is nowhere near 2:1 to call. Is it really ok to call a possible set all in with just a flush draw and a runner runner str8 draw. he easily has 44, 77, AT but likeky JJ. It's $84 to call into a $122 pot, I never have called this. Should I?? With a OESD draw and flush draw maybe. But I need to know why you would call this.
if he's aggro, there's a decent possibility that we're already good (there are many worse draws that this villain could b3bai with), and you have to consider that our overcards give us some added equity as well. Sure, they might be dead to a set sometimes, but other times the A might be live against a KK that just called preflop, or the J might be live against AT (pretty unlikely IMO but possible), or both might be live agaainst something like 4xcc. Calling here is at worst a small mistake against some ranges, and a pretty bad mistake against others.
meant to say at the end that folding is a pretty bad mistake against some ranges**
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jyms
Old 12-13-2006, 06:35 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Understood. That is what I was having the problems with. OP said you could rule out the set, but unless this guy is a 50+/5/3.0+ I don't call this. Any tight, average player here has TPTK, set or overpair in my world, so calling this thin of a margin is out for me. If he has anything else, I will get it from him on a later hand.
 
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JL
Old 12-14-2006, 01:02 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
Understood. That is what I was having the problems with. OP said you could rule out the set, but unless this guy is a 50+/5/3.0+ I don't call this. Any tight, average player here has TPTK, set or overpair in my world, so calling this thin of a margin is out for me. If he has anything else, I will get it from him on a later hand.
Well he was 55/30/4....

...and he flipped over KcQc


PS: the combo draw is 2 overs plus FD...which in this case was just as good as a straight flush draw.
When I made the call I was pretty confident that my overs were good...unless he had AT...then I only had 12 outs.

Just wondered what you guys thought...glad to know that it wasnt too hard of a decision.
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