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Numbr2intheWorld
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02-07-2008, 04:45 AM
Post subject: checking up, QQ vs unknown
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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villain is running 36/27/1 over 20 mined hands, i'm pretty sure he just joined the table. Just fyi i find that fulltilt has typically more aggressive non-regs than other sites.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
CO ($111)
Button ($415.60)
Hero ($832.35)
BB ($541)
UTG ($536.95)
MP ($591)
Preflop: Hero is SB with  ,  .
UTG raises to $15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $58, BB calls $49, UTG folds.
Flop: ($128)  ,  ,  (2 players)
Hero bets $102, BB raises to $252, Hero raises to $879.35 (All-In)
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BigLRIP
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: BC
Posts: 194
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This preflop spot tilts me, I never know what to put the cold caller on. With so few reads I think stacking off is fine. I think he can show up with random hands a lot, maybe even stuff like AJs?
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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looks fine. i cant see how you wouldnt get it in here but obv not fistpumping about it or anything.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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I dont know, his preflop range is relatively wide I guess, but it's a small sample and of course doesn't say anything about his postflop play.
I wouldn't expect villain to overcall with SC's tbh. He doesn't have the odds and it's tricky as UTG could 4-bet.
Therefor I assign him a range of 99-AA.
Maybe 77-88, AK, AQ, AJs.
I don't know if villain is tricky postflop.
He could raise flop with at least AhJh+, 99, JJ-AA.
Maybe AJs, TT and some (semi)bluffs.
Quote:
Board: Js 6d 9d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.940% 19.73% 02.21% 4298 480.50 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 78.060% 75.85% 02.21% 16521 480.50 { JJ+, 99, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh }
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Quote:
Board: Js 6d 9d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.787% 39.35% 01.44% 13244 485.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 59.213% 57.77% 01.44% 19446 485.00 { 99+, AJs+ }
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I'm not sure how correct my ranges are.
But folding flop or calling/reevaluate turn looks better by this.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Agree with Minsim, someone who cold calls with these stack sizes has a tight range, one that surely doesn't include SC's. and therefore you can't call here. I like how it was played though up to being raised, I'd just fold to the raise.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Agree with Minsim, someone who cold calls with these stack sizes has a tight range, one that surely doesn't include SC's. and therefore you can't call here. I like how it was played though up to being raised, I'd just fold to the raise.
Oh and make sure to laugh at him for butchering the hand.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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The thing is in this spot, you can't just say "he doesn't have sc's" or "he never cold calls QJ." That just isn't true, we have to assume that sometimes a relative unknown with these stats is going to have those hands.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
I'm not sure how correct my ranges are.
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Apart from giving him hearts when the board shows diamonds theyre ok :P
I dont have pokerstove but Id guess we have around 40-45% equity here against that range and hes not folding anything with half his stack + dead money in the middle.
Could we call and shove a non-diamond turn? and c/f otherwise? I think if a diamond comes we are pretty much always behind but it still seems kinda crappy.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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lol you guys are crazy, this is so so so super standard. im fist pump + snap jam.
The only reason this might not be a a good spot is if you made the mistake before the hand was played. (Probably not possible in this situation since villain is an unknown). But what I mean by making the mistake before the hand was played is basically that you played so straightforward/nitty/predictable that villain has to know you have an overpair and won't get it in with worse here.
If I'm in your spot, let's see the range of hands I'm jamming here .... any J, 67, Q9, T8, any two diamonds. If I have history w/ villain it might even end up being a lighter range, including hands like a gutshot and and overcard, or a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw.
This flop is so gin for your hand, if you can't be happy in this spot, I'm not quite sure why you're 3betting QQ in the first place.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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oh my bad, didn't recognize that the original opener wasn't the villain who cold called the 3bet.
regardless, i stick w/ my analysis, you have an overpair in a 3bet pot, it's effectively the nuts.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Yeah Marshall I disagree on preflop ranges here. I will cold call in these spots with sc's on occasion but most people don't do it whatsoever. I think given preflop ranges I'd fold.
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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I'm with ISF. I think the BB's 3bet CC range is usually pretty narrow and strong. I fold to the flop raise. Hell I think c/f flop wouldn't be a huge mistake.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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u guys give random unknown players a lot of credit, lol
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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u guys reailze hes not even sitting w/ a full stack, right? basic premise i follow is .. .i assume my opponents are for the most part incompetent until they show me otherwise ...
most players arent competent ... so it seems like the only logical conclusion to come to right?
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Ah I dunno, this is FT 600NL I'm assuming most players are somewhat competant. How sure are you that this guy isn't a reg massimo?
I think in general players are way more likely to cold 4bet AK/QQ than AA/KK even more likely to muck AJ.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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depends a lot on gameflow and table dynamics also ...
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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he just joined the table
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Ah I dunno, this is FT 600NL I'm assuming most players are somewhat competant. How sure are you that this guy isn't a reg massimo?
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He's not a reg. A Reg just doesn't buy in for that much and i've also never seen him ever, i mine FTP a lot too.
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depends a lot on gameflow and table dynamics also ...
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You weight wayyyy too much on this (and the fact that you're throwing this point out in this thread, is well, ridiculous), a lot of the time against non-regs it's just utterly irrelevant.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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minsim, why do you put TT, AQ and AK in his range (on the 2nd one). Replace those with KJ and QJ and i think it's decent.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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OH WTF I thought this was 400nl. Oh well that makes it a whole lot closer, wow I really thought it was 400nl. Meh, still probably a fold but now it just seems frivolous to even discuss.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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I don't fold much but i'd fold this...if you havent seen him do anything weird/spewy yet, his range totally owns you. Id expect to see JJ+ here like 85% of the time.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Ah I dunno, this is FT 600NL I'm assuming most players are somewhat competant. How sure are you that this guy isn't a reg massimo?
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He's not a reg. A Reg just doesn't buy in for that much and i've also never seen him ever, i mine FTP a lot too.
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depends a lot on gameflow and table dynamics also ...
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You weight wayyyy too much on this (and the fact that you're throwing this point out in this thread, is well, ridiculous), a lot of the time against non-regs it's just utterly irrelevant. |
if these things arent important in determining what type of opponent you're up against, i must be the most delusional poker player alive.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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the fact of the matter is, villains get it in against me here w/ bottom pr, w/ A high and w/ gutshots ... constantly ... even if they have only been at my table for 2 orbits .. so i guess that's the reason i claim this is a really easy situation. maybe a lot of it is reputation ... but im really happy to get my money in in this situation.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
u guys reailze hes not even sitting w/ a full stack, right? basic premise i follow is .. .i assume my opponents are for the most part incompetent until they show me otherwise ...
most players arent competent ... so it seems like the only logical conclusion to come to right?
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Wouldn't an incompetent player have a tighter range for calling a 3-bet than a competent one? Most bad players arnt playing stuff like SCs in a 3-bet pot are they? Against a bad player the only hands I see us beating here are AK diamonds and perhaps AJ?
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Just playing to improve.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
u guys reailze hes not even sitting w/ a full stack, right? basic premise i follow is .. .i assume my opponents are for the most part incompetent until they show me otherwise ...
most players arent competent ... so it seems like the only logical conclusion to come to right?
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Wouldn't an incompetent player have a tighter range for calling a 3-bet than a competent one? Most bad players arnt playing stuff like SCs in a 3-bet pot are they? Against a bad player the only hands I see us beating here are AK diamonds and perhaps AJ? |
why would bad players have a tighter range?
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
u guys reailze hes not even sitting w/ a full stack, right? basic premise i follow is .. .i assume my opponents are for the most part incompetent until they show me otherwise ...
most players arent competent ... so it seems like the only logical conclusion to come to right?
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Wouldn't an incompetent player have a tighter range for calling a 3-bet than a competent one? |
Not as far as I know
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
the fact of the matter is, villains get it in against me here w/ bottom pr, w/ A high and w/ gutshots ... constantly ... even if they have only been at my table for 2 orbits .. so i guess that's the reason i claim this is a really easy situation. maybe a lot of it is reputation ... but im really happy to get my money in in this situation. |
Well if thats the case then ya get it in obv. I have different experience. Probably just an image thing.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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I just see most bad players folding to 3-bets without JJ+, AK and maybe AQ. They dont tend to play speculative pots. I guess it depends on what degree of incompetence you give them.
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Just playing to improve.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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I tend to run like 33/28 and higher sometimes while 3betting like 15-20% of my hands, so I'm constantly playing big all in pots w/ just top pair, w/ any number of draws, pr+draws A high if I think it's good. So from my perspective if I were sitting at the table and saw this situation, I would be thrilled.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
I just see most bad players folding to 3-bets without JJ+, AK and maybe AQ. They dont tend to play speculative pots. I guess it depends on what degree of incompetence you give them.
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i would define one characteristic of a bad player as making spewy calls out of position w/ marginal holdings that tend to be dominated, also calls w/ like suited connectors and stuff ... very terrible imo.
another characteristic of a different type of bad player is one who folds too much and plays too nitty. in this case, he will probably end up psyching himself out once he finally does get some kind of hand, and unless it's a lock, he's going to be letting it go on the flop a high % of the time anyways.
so either way like ... bad players can be holding either, but the fact that they are a bad player kinda negates the fact that u should be at all scared, or even concerned about getting your money in here.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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This debate is very good and needs to be resolved. 'Snap' on one side and 'fold' on the other are quite antipodal opinions. Coming to a resolution is even more important here since the pot's large. The wrong decision is actually gonna be very bad.
Obviously, Marshall is partly (perhaps mainly) playing from the perspective of villians thinking he's really laggy, but he also thinks without this image unknowns seeming to be lags will felt light here. Which throws everything off kilter when folding is the other more popular option. It could, however, be that Marshall's wrong about getting played back here by laggy unknowns in the first place.
What it boils down to his BB's pf range. As far as I see it, cold calling 3bets are so rare and so often big hands that this is then a fold, but we could also be deficient on information regarding unknowns' ranges here. The trends of poker tend to show that weaker but good players put villains on tighter ranges, yet as we get better we realize why the ranges actually should be wider. Just like how micro players trying to move up are always looking for reasons to fold sets or KK pf, it could be that we're weakly looking to fold this when we really shouldn't.
If the disparity of recommended lines is based on our image then the thread is resolved, but if not then we really should figure this out.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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i didnt read this thread but anything other than shove is awful
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
This debate is very good and needs to be resolved. 'Snap' on one side and 'fold' on the other are quite antipodal opinions. Coming to a resolution is even more important here since the pot's large. The wrong decision is actually gonna be very bad.
Obviously, Marshall is partly (perhaps mainly) playing from the perspective of villians thinking he's really laggy, but he also thinks without this image unknowns seeming to be lags will felt light here. Which throws everything off kilter when folding is the other more popular option. It could, however, be that Marshall's wrong about getting played back here by laggy unknowns in the first place.
What it boils down to his BB's pf range. As far as I see it, cold calling 3bets are so rare and so often big hands that this is then a fold, but we could also be deficient on information regarding unknowns' ranges here. The trends of poker tend to show that weaker but good players put villains on tighter ranges, yet as we get better we realize why the ranges actually should be wider. Just like how micro players trying to move up are always looking for reasons to fold sets or KK pf, it could be that we're weakly looking to fold this when we really shouldn't.
If the disparity of recommended lines is based on our image then the thread is resolved, but if not then we really should figure this out.
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just read this thread and this is my fav post. identifying the size of a mistake and then correcting it is real important to improving at poker.
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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heres my analysis:
when u play poker at mid-high stakes most of ur money comes from the unknowns, cause of this, u have to know ur player pool.
when an unknown sits, until proven otherwise, assume they are loose, bad, stationy, and never ever ever ever fold TP to them.
that being said a min raise is the strongest possible action he could take on this flop but still shove not close.
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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i agree very strongly w/ sauce, and want to add one thing.
if you are folding QQ in this spot, do you realize how exploitable you will be? It doesn't even matter if no one knows that you are actually folding here, it's just the fact that you are even considering giving up in a situation where you have so much equity, could lead down a slippery slope. Even if you are a tight player, I find it hard to even consider making a fold in this spot.
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Jager
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 754
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
if you are folding QQ in this spot, do you realize how exploitable you will be?
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I don't think a random player is thinking about how to "exploit" anything. I do agree that I am not folding this, you will see a lot of AK and AJ here from the fishies.
Oh and welcome Marshall.
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"It is impossible for you to learn what you think you already know."
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