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mixchange
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06-19-2007, 08:38 AM
Post subject: Call this push?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Hero ($100)
UTG ($63.15)
MP ($119.05)
CO ($71.95)
Button ($109)
SB ($103.70)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J , 7 .
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1, UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Button calls $1.
Flop: ($10) 7 , J , 6 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, UTG calls $3, MP folds, Button raises to $10, SB raises to $91.7, Hero ?
Did the donk bet thing, expecting a re-raise...didn't expect this.
Newish to table, but I've seen some loose re-raising, so I felt I could donkbet and re-raise or kj someone on a draw pretty hard
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snowbird4life
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 246
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hmm im pretty sure i call here.
I think sb is a donk on an overpair possibly a flush draw. meh he could have a set  I wouldn't worry about utg and expect him to fold. Button likely has aj/kj and is raising because of your insufficient flop raise.
What are we folding to here? It seems unlikely someone is holding the case 7's let alone the jacks, i guess its possible someone hit their 666, but i dont think you can just assume someone has a set here when your holding top two.
It is pretty rare in 6 max to flop top two and run into a set. I think i call but i wouldnt be too suprised if sb flipped over a set. just meh and reload.
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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i usually think the "fold pre-flop if you're not willing to get all-in on this flop" posts are stupid, but it's true here
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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vry sy cll
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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fold. fold. fold. Pot is small and SB is showing tons of strength. You bet out, someone else raises, and SB check/bombs. AND you have to act before BTN. One of them has you beat.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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euph, SB has AA/KK. Its obvious.
If we are beat, then its by button.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Minraise from SB is bigger than AA/KK, but it doesnt much matter. We're either way behind or flipping. Pot is small, weve got like 4bb invested..
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
fold. fold. fold. Pot is small and SB is showing tons of strength. You bet out, someone else raises, and SB check/bombs. AND you have to act before BTN. One of them has you beat.
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I don't know about this. SB's play is really weird. He's min raising preflop with all those players in the pot, he knows its gonna go multiway madness. Then he checks a drawy flop multiway? There's no way a strong overpair is playing like this, and IF he would play a strong overpair like this, he sucks enough that I'd call anyhow.
I'd say SB has at best AKclubs. As for BTN.. thats another story. I agree with Euph that button could have us beat, but I think this is potentially a draw/strong jack often enough, and we have outs, that I stack with this.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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If we're 50% to win, and both people are all-in, i guess we're +EV, but meh.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.478% 14.48% 00.00% 105114 0.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 47.494% 47.49% 00.00% 344814 0.00 { J7o }
Hand 2: 38.027% 38.03% 00.00% 276084 0.00 { 77-66, 3c2c, 76o }
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
If we're 50% to win, and both people are all-in, i guess we're +EV, but meh.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.478% 14.48% 00.00% 105114 0.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 47.494% 47.49% 00.00% 344814 0.00 { J7o }
Hand 2: 38.027% 38.03% 00.00% 276084 0.00 { 77-66, 3c2c, 76o }
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in a 300 pot with 95 invested, 47.4% equity, therefore eV= $47.20
this is an EXCELLENT situation. How often in poker do you get to make a +47bb decision? Not often.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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That makes some serious assumptions, but yes if we're all in on a 50/50 getting 2:1 we're +EV obv.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Hand 0: 17.287% 17.29% 00.00% 15610 0.00 { JJ+, AcKc }
Hand 1: 62.086% 62.09% 00.00% 56064 0.00 { 77-66, 7d6d, 7c2c }
Hand 2: 20.627% 20.63% 00.00% 18626 0.00 { Jh7d }
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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This is an easy fold imo. There's only $26 of dead money and you have two left to act behind you. Although they may call with worse, you can't assume that. I fold pre-flop too.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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I stopped folding in spots like this a long time ago. Too often I saw really bad AA-KK play vs QJo at showdown. Not saying the Button has QJo here, he probably has a flushdraw but you get what I mean.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
That makes some serious assumptions, but yes if we're all in on a 50/50 getting 2:1 we're +EV obv.
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i just wanted to make sure that you don't ever say "meh" to a +50bb ev scenario again 
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
SB's play is really weird. He's min raising preflop with all those players in the pot, he knows its gonna go multiway madness. Then he checks a drawy flop multiway? There's no way a strong overpair is playing like this, and IF he would play a strong overpair like this, he sucks enough that I'd call anyhow.
I'd say SB has at best AKclubs. As for BTN.. thats another story. I agree with Euph that button could have us beat, but I think this is potentially a draw/strong jack often enough, and we have outs, that I stack with this.
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Good analysis. I actually had a similar spot with AK/oc/fd that I posted from the same night. I don't know why I didn't think along those lines.
Renton, The guy would have to be an absolutely mad to play aces like this -- minraise out of the SB for a sure 5 way pot, then a flop check? I've just never seen an overpair minraise out of the SB at 100NL--I've seen crap like that at lower buy-ins, maybe there's more donks than I realized at this stake? I just don't see how this is an overpair. I think if he's minraising out of SB w/ aa, he's going to continue his slowplay and probably minraise button.
The more I think about it, the more it seems like calling is correct, even though it would have to be a pretty badly played hand by SB overall.
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