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caesar66

06-09-2006, 10:57 PM Post subject: Call?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 68

Stage #378470280: Holdem No Limit $0.25 - 2006-06-09 17:52:57 (ET)
Table: EAST ST. (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 7 - EYEWHITES ($18.24 in chips)
Seat 8 - FLMONKEYMAN ($26.95 in chips)
Seat 1 - Villain ($17.92 in chips)
Seat 3 - TEEKOSTANG77 ($20.81 in chips)
Seat 5 - CLYDE311 ($1.64 in chips)
Seat 6 - Hero ($59.15 in chips)
FLMONKEYMAN - Posts small blind $0.10
BADDBRU - Posts big blind $0.25
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [As Kh]
TEEKOSTANG77 - Calls $0.25
CLYDE311 - Calls $0.25
Hero - Raises $1.25 to $1.25
EYEWHITES - Calls $1.25
FLMONKEYMAN - Folds
Villain - Raises $3.50 to $3.75
TEEKOSTANG77 - Folds
CLYDE311 - Folds
Hero - Calls $2.50
EYEWHITES - Calls $2.50
*** FLOP *** [2h 3h 6h]
Villain - All-In $14.17

He hadn't been at the table long so had no real reads. The reraise made me almost sure he had Aces, Kings or Queens - more likely the queens as I hold A-K. With the draw to the 2nd nut flush, 0,1,2 overs, would you call??

I will give the results later, as I did eventually call.

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jackvance

06-09-2006, 11:39 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point

Well if Villain's range is a solid AA, KK or QQ, then taking your holecards into consideration leaves a card probability of AA 25%, KK 25%, QQ 50%. If you're up against QQ - possibly holding one of your flush outs - then you're in a cointoss. Against kings it's a bit worse, and against aces your hand might already be dead if Villain has the heart.

So:
50%: cointoss
25%: vs KK, somewhat over 40% to win
8.3%: vs AA no heart, drawing to 9 outs or about 36%
16.7%: vs AA with a heart, hand is dead

Now then, the pot is already $10 right?.. so you're getting close to but a bit worse than 2:1 on your call.. meaning you only need to win 37% to make it favorable.

So if you wanna gamble.. you seem to have odds to call.

caesar66

06-10-2006, 12:24 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 68

Yeah, thanks for the %'s.

He turned over K-K, which held up.

Miffed22001

06-10-2006, 02:58 AM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

if you dont think he has AA here i might gambOOL, but then im like that

aislephive

06-10-2006, 04:11 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: Downswinging holla!

Posts: 1,523

With the Ah I'd definitely call, but without it I think this is a fold. If he has AhAx we're dead, although that's worst case scenario. It's a borderline call here but it's obviously not terrible by any means, I'd throw it away though especially with the player behind me.

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