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Numbr2intheWorld
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10-22-2007, 04:39 PM
Post subject: c/f river anyone?
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Villain is twomountains who is running like 20/15/3 over 75 hands. He seems like a reg although i've never seen him and he's not spewy so far. I think he will almost never bluff the river when checked to.
I'm running looser than normal but i haven't showed down any bluffs or anything.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($177)
Hero ($231.65)
BB ($73)
UTG ($236.80)
MP ($593.35)
CO ($200)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A , J .
2 folds, CO raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, 1 fold, CO calls $18.
Flop: ($53) 7 , 3, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $38, CO calls $38.
Turn: ($129) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.
River: ($129) A (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero ................
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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bet/folds? about $80?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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Hmm is definitely bet/fold river but what size depends on villian. probably go within 50-100.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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i like bet/fold a lot better too.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.
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yeah... i just don't see what he calls with that i'm beating.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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yeah but i dont really see what he has that beats you besides something like AQ diamonds.
to me it looks like he has a pocket pair that didnt hit a set and hes playing it passively. might as well make a value bet i can see him calling down with something like 88.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Bet/folds is much better because your hand is extremely transparent. You often get looked up by worse but you are never raised with worse.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.
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yeah... i just don't see what he calls with that i'm beating. |
Your looking for value against pairs. river is also a good scare card to bluff so maybe opp will call with PPs. Only thing im thinking of is whats the best bet size given we will rarely be raised.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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if hes good doesnt he just raise the river with any ace and push you off your hand.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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c/c or b/f depending on reads. Or if you are me and autoshove this river as a bluff often and he knows it, then you can shove lol.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
if hes good doesnt he just raise the river with any ace and push you off your hand.
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I'd be surprised if he raised it with any A except AK. I don't think he has any A besides AK-AQ anyway.
Can someone please name a hand that calls that's worse than mine? I don't think he calls with TT but maybe JJ-QQ... And he may never play JJ-QQ like this.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.
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yeah... i just don't see what he calls with that i'm beating. |
a pair, a worse ace
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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EZ bet
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 442
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If you check he probably thinks you have nothing, and if he has a medium pair say 88, he will check as he probably thinks he is ahead and there is no value in betting it, he might bet a missed flush draw but apart from that I dont think he is betting anything you have beat, so I think C/F could be good depending on how often you think he is betting a missed flush draw here.
If you bet, I dont think he will call often with a worse hand as your hand looks exactly like it is. You may be able to get him to call a really small bet, say $40 or something. If he raises ask yourself if he thinks you are capable of folding an AK here as that is probably what he will put you on, the answer is probably no - so a fold is best.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Ok so if i bet/fold how much should i bet? toadstool says 40, chopper says 80. I think around 50 is good.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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i like 50.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I like $60.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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120/fold
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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the bigger you bet, the more you make when he calls!!
bet what you would bet with KQ in same spot
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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What's your 3betting frequency been like?
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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a little loose buit nothing retarded
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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I kinda like the idea of betting 114 because you'd probably bet less with an Ace.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Anything around a PSB reeks of an Ace IMO. It's like the cheapest trick in the value levelling book. I like a standard 2/3 pot.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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85$ is the right amount
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Anything around a PSB reeks of an Ace IMO. It's like the cheapest trick in the value levelling book.
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woops
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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unless you think he will be thinking another level up?
ISF: Surely if we check it protects our bluffs better from a game theory perspective?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
ISF: Surely if we check it protects our bluffs better from a game theory perspective?
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Huh? Explain?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?
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we dont play in a vacuum
this is a bet
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?
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we dont play in a vacuum
this is a bet |
That's my question, so the non vacuum concepts, which is assume is mostly game theory, makes up for sub par value right?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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oh and of course metagame
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Anything around a PSB reeks of an Ace IMO. It's like the cheapest trick in the value levelling book. I like a standard 2/3 pot.
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On the 1st level, i would interpret a big bet as either a missed flush or a full house. I think a smaller bet really narrows our range to only A-x, as it seems like it is obviously for value.
Considering that we should probably be thinking on the first level in this hand, when we actually have a medium strength hand we should either 1). bet really small and force our opponent to call getting >1,000,000:1 pot odds or 2). make a close to PSB bet when we don't think our opponent will almost always fold a weaker hand. We don't have close to 100% fold equity considering there is no implied threat of bets on later streets, and our range does include some air (i.e. K-4s).
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
unless you think he will be thinking another level up?
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Nah, I was thinking he'd be on the 1st level tbh.
I don't actually know about the skill/level of this type of reg - I play on a eurofish site.
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
ISF: Surely if we check it protects our bluffs better from a game theory perspective?
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Huh? Explain? |
We'' if we have the ace and we bet and it's -EV then we lose $, what do we gain? Only positive thing is maybe we get a bit more value on our full houses in the same spot.
On the other hand if we check then we save the EV and it adds weight to the times we bluff in this spot, hence pushing up our overall EV of all our balanced range. Checking balances our range in a more +EV way aswell as saving us immediate EV from this hand in a vaccum.
lol that made 0 sense.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Anyways, for the results oriented. I bet 100, he shoved for 34 more, i called. He showed AK and won.
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?
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we dont play in a vacuum
this is a bet |
That's my question, so the non vacuum concepts, which is assume is mostly game theory, makes up for sub par value right? |
at lower stakes, where there's a bazillion players, do you think it's close enough to playing in a vacuum?
i'd just bet $40 unless my image is more aggressive...i do get the "balancing bluffs thing" but doubt that's worth it here.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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i like the check call to gain value on bluffs. I don't think you can fold here though.
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