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But I love to shove !! 50/100 6max spot

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  1. #1

    Default But I love to shove !! 50/100 6max spot

    Kind of an interesting spot I played yesterday. I think I can be too loose in spots like this 6handed, not with my reads of their range, but more with my psychological profiles of my opponents. Tell me what you guys think. I also think if we get some good insight into this specific situation it has some broader implications for similar spots I may be misplaying, and maybe some of you are misplaying.

    50/100 with an ante, 6 handed, 14.5k stacks.

    Preflop: folds to me otb and I minraise JThh. reg X in the sb 3bets me to 700 I call.

    Preflop reads: Reg X probably thinks I'm opening nearly ATC and he is right. In my sample I have him 3betting 11% from the sb, but in this situation I'd expect him to be closer to 20% if not higher. My reads on his 3betting range are that he is significantly more linear than most regs at this level, I expect him to have 'value' hands down to at least KJo, maybe even KTo, A8s, ATs, stuff like that. He will expect me to mostly 4bet my premium hands as well as bluffs and he will likely continue with the majority of his preflop range vs a 4bet.

    Flop: (1650) J82h. X bets $950, I call.

    Flop reads: He's cbetting roughly 50-65% in 3bet pots total. On this action + board I expect something like 60% cbet. I think there is some principle he uses to figure out which bits of his range to cbet but I haven't figured it out yet. I've definitely seen him check hands as strong as TPTK on boards like this with a reasonable frequency, I have also seen him c/f boards like this. So I don't think we can very well narrow his range when he bets flop, given incompleteness of my reads, maybe discount pure air like 75cc moderately and weight his range a bit to overs. I think raising flop is reasonable here, but again, I'm unsure of how he will play overs in this spot and I'm very unsure of how to respond to a 3bet from this player + my hand has pretty strong equity and moderate implied odds in position. Also, if I raise and he calls I'm certainly not going 3streets of value on babys against this player, which means I have to pick a street to check which is kind of bad.

    Turn: (3550) Tc. He bets 1950. I call.

    Turn reads: Given his linear preflop range and his (moderately high) semibluffing frequencies on the turn, I expect him to have a ton of AQ KQ AK type combos as well as value hands. So I'm way way ahead. The problem with small raise or shove is that stacks are pretty bad to have a balanced range- a jam is a bit over pot sized raise. I think he will rarely but occasionally barrel a blank river as well as improve and value cut himself. So I call, but I think small raise makes a ton of sense as well and I would usually raise if stacks were deeper.

    River: (7450) Ao. He bets 3700 I ... ? call or jam ?

    Argument for jam: I'm Sauce, and I'm smart enough to know my range falls way behind his on this river, and I'm smart enough to know my range contains a ton of 1pr combos. I'm also smart enough to read his range such that he has quite a few better one pair combos which may fold to a jam. He probably thinks I'm likely to make a fancy play here and turn 1p into a bluff, therefore I should value shove JT to get a call from his entire vbetting range on the end, which I am ahead of.

    Argument for flat: I can't be sure of my reads on the river, especially about which combinations he vbets. He might check hands like AK AQ KK QQ on the end and only vbet AJ+ planning to trap me (since he may think I bluff too much). Paradoxically though, if he is very polarized on this river, that leaves him almost never betting, and checking probably 75% of his range which seems really odd considering my HUD which has him betting river with a decent frequency. Stacks are very odd here though, which may lead him to not vbet thin. Also, he may bet/fold all of his AK AQ KK QQ combos and I may be good like 10% when my jam is called, which is a pretty big disaster.

    Argument from GTO: I have near the top of my range and I may want to be bluffing in this spot and he may call with worse so I should jam. Or at least jam AJo always. If he does in fact bet super polarized this strategy loses relative to a strategy of calling/folding/jamming KQ + Q9 + bluffs, but if he is in fact polarized the unfavorable situation of me holding JTo and him holding the nuts will occur very very infrequently, so I should just go ahead and assume his range is more balanced and design a balanced range of my own to counter it as best I can.
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  2. #2
    I think jamming seems best because a) He's probably not 3betting AJo and ATo which imo is pretty huge. b) He could be vbetting pretty thin c) People expect you to be capable of bluffing here and d) I feel like his betsize indicates a one pair hand or air trying to look like value but maybe I'm underrating this player.

    btw I'm assuming there's one club on the flop not two?

    Also, I'm wondering why you choose to minraise with antes? Do you do this from all positions or just the button?
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
    Also, I'm wondering why you choose to minraise with antes?
    $200/[$200+$150+($25*6)] = .40 probably has something to do with it.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
    I think jamming seems best because a) He's probably not 3betting AJo and ATo which imo is pretty huge. b) He could be vbetting pretty thin c) People expect you to be capable of bluffing here and d) I feel like his betsize indicates a one pair hand or air trying to look like value but maybe I'm underrating this player.

    btw I'm assuming there's one club on the flop not two?

    Also, I'm wondering why you choose to minraise with antes? Do you do this from all positions or just the button?
    This is pretty obviously wrong, since i stipulated in the reads section that he will 3bet ATo AJo nearly 100% of the time. I also said that he may or may not be vbetting thin. either way, you need to provide some read to backup that assumption and the assumption that you put him on 1pr/air. seems like you are contradicting nearly everything i said my reads were !

    tl;dr, shove, might be an acceptable response but dont post fake reasons !
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  5. #5
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    I don't think you are particularly ahead of his vb range on this board. Especially if he knows that you think he 3bets linear, then surely he can't profitably VB hyperthin (say QJ/KT) when its clear that he has almost always connected with this board.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    I don't think you are particularly ahead of his vb range on this board. Especially if he knows that you think he 3bets linear, then surely he can't profitably VB hyperthin (say QJ/KT) when its clear that he has almost always connected with this board.
    Ok, so he doesn't vbet QJ/KT. How am I not particularly ahead ?
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  7. #7
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    I've got you just slightly ahead in best case. In worst case you don't beat a single hand.

    Since he's got protection from KQ/AA/JJ/TT/88/22/AJ/AT in his range (with some discounts), it doesn't seem like he's got much reason to bluffcatch the times he does bet some one pair hands. I also don't think you should be bluffing here with your reads regarding his 3bet range.
  8. #8
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Oh and by the way I'm betfolding AT here against you :P
  9. #9
    Is he the type to bet small'ish with very strong hands in an attempt to induce value shoves from worse hands? (ie: bet small on a flush river, so someone might shove a set/two pair for value)

    If he's not, then I like a shove, because I think he could convince himself that his sizing looks like a weak one pair, and that you might try taking him off it by shoving and call with a worse hand.

    I'm on a work comp with no stove, but I feel like we could stove some weighted combo of KQ/AK/AQ/AJ/KJ/AT to figure this out.
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  10. #10
    Just in terms of like combos assuming he is calling with every hand better than yours, doesn't he need to be calling worse really often? If you are questioning whether he even calls worse or even bets them for value on the river, it seems like that would be really bad. So I'd think its a call. Although, I don't know how valuable being able to bluff here is to you in the long term?
  11. #11
    you're right, he has to call worse vbets nearly always to make shoving best with my hand
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  12. #12
    I have to say I think raise the flop is the best line. My thinking may be overrating a few factors but I doubt you call the flop as a float very much. he has lots of air in his flop cbet range, and you're very likely getting calls and rebluffs from much worse. I also think if he 3bets the flop and you call you can find a fold, it doesn't seem like a spot where someone is going to 3bet the flop and continue with bluffs very much.

    I think timing is super important on the river, and I noted you didn't put anything. Do you recall if you saw at least time warning? I assume if he hit time bank you would've noted it. I'd be somewhat surprised if he didnt timebank the river with KK/QQ/KJ (if he even bets KJ), and maybe even AK/AQ. If he hits timebank I would absolutely shove here I think you could easily get looked up super light. People rarely fold against you. Not a large amount of nut hands in your range obviously. Seems like a guy who'd notice that on this board. With quick timing I think I probably wouldn't do it. You are vtowning yourself too much.

    If you don't think anything can be made out of his timing I'd shove as well.
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  13. #13
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
    GTO wise i cant really argue, but i think it is clear that in practice this player will tend to have you beat when he calls. this may still be ok if it allows u to bluff every time u have a lone ten or jack..idk do some math.
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  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123 View Post
    you're right, he has to call worse vbets nearly always to make shoving best with my hand

    Counted the combos 12 AK, 12 AQ, 6 QQ, 6 KK, KJ 12, QJ 12 (60)

    AA 3, JJ 3, TT 3, 88 3, AJ 6, AT 6, A8s 2 (or 3) (26)

    My combinatrics suck so someone should probably check my math.

    Add in some random hands he may 3bet that have a worse two pair, add positive metagame when called (i.e. getting more credit), I would estimate he has to call 35% of the time with the worse hand's he's vbetting.
    Last edited by IowaSkinsFan; 12-01-2010 at 12:21 AM.
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  15. #15
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
    and i think u and a few other players would not do this, but me, zhuge, and most are checking qq-kk on the end vs most regs(to soulread)
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  16. #16
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
    to clarify 2 other things:
    1- his sizing says nothing about his hand in this particular spot
    2- shoving is without a doubt a bad play in a vacuum
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  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho View Post
    to clarify 2 other things:
    1- his sizing says nothing about his hand in this particular spot
    Are you saying this as a general statement about how the regs play at this level or do you know the particular opponent he is playing?
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  18. #18
    nuts was at the table so he knows who the villain is

    i will also add to my reads that the river timing/sizing tells us nothing about his hand. or rather, he has only one betsize in this spot when he bets
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123 View Post
    This is pretty obviously wrong, since i stipulated in the reads section that he will 3bet ATo AJo nearly 100% of the time. I also said that he may or may not be vbetting thin. either way, you need to provide some read to backup that assumption and the assumption that you put him on 1pr/air. seems like you are contradicting nearly everything i said my reads were !

    tl;dr, shove, might be an acceptable response but dont post fake reasons !
    I'm a Steinberg I don't listen...

    But so why are you minraising?
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
    I'm a Steinberg I don't listen...

    But so why are you minraising?
    becausei think getting folds often with a high freq of hands is more valuable than playing bigger pots preflop with my good hands
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  21. #21
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Would be nice to hear what conclusions you have made here yourself. Do you think shoving here is optimal even though everyone seems to agree that it's -EV in a vacuum? You mentioned some broader implications which I'm assuming has to do with impact on overall strategy?
  22. #22
    No, I think shoving is bad here. It's just pretty close.
    I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by sauce123 View Post
    becausei think getting folds often with a high freq of hands is more valuable than playing bigger pots preflop with my good hands
    I always kinda felt that with antes it would be better to 3.5x or 4x, because you can get the blinds to play a lot tighter which is sick when the pot preflop is so big. But this is assuming that people are playing like 60% or more hands from the bb to a minraise...
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
    I always kinda felt that with antes it would be better to 3.5x or 4x, because you can get the blinds to play a lot tighter which is sick when the pot preflop is so big. But this is assuming that people are playing like 60% or more hands from the bb to a minraise...
    Surely you wouldn't open 100%. So it mean's you'll be stealing the blinds less often. Probably mathematical solution for this.

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