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Bluffing a Nit

  
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-20-2007, 09:50 PM     Post subject: Bluffing a Nit #1 (permalink)  
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 Opp is 10/8, has folded big hands before. I've played with him a lot, and probably things im lagg. I don't think he leads out here without at least top pair.

PokerStars Game #8039086203: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/20 - 17:40:57 (ET)
Table 'Orsilocus' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Fredorazia ($52.10 in chips)
Seat 2: bigreddewd ($110.20 in chips)
Seat 3: redgrape ($103.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Baldinio ($87.50 in chips)
Seat 5: BigC79 ($126.20 in chips)
Seat 6: actionDJ ($103.10 in chips)
actionDJ: posts small blind $0.50
Fredorazia: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Jh Th]
bigreddewd: folds
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
Baldinio: folds
BigC79: folds
actionDJ: calls $3.50
Fredorazia: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [8c 3s Qc]
actionDJ: bets $7
Fredorazia: folds
redgrape: calls $7
*** TURN *** [8c 3s Qc] [5c]
actionDJ: checks
redgrape: bets $19
actionDJ: calls $19
*** RIVER *** [8c 3s Qc 5c] [Ah]
actionDJ: checks
redgrape: bets $45
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-20-2007, 10:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think the problem here is he probably has AQ or a set. If you really want to do this you have to overbet the pot a lot.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-20-2007, 10:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 like double the pot, a lot.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-20-2007, 11:02 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 But I'm not sure I'd do that with a flush.
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andy-akb
Old 01-21-2007, 12:01 AM #5 (permalink)  
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When lead into on the flop do you just call with a FD? Would villain ever lead into you with a FD? I dont think a flush is often played like this, especially by a "lagg" and AQ [basically the only hand the river ace would help you with] wouldnt make a ton of sense because I dont know how often you are betting the turn, except maybe with the ace of clubs.

Basically, I dont like this a ton. If you want to try to rep the flush, I raise the flop. As played, I just dont think our hand makes a ton of sense and given the read on our villain, I doubt he is going to be folding here that often.
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zook
Old 01-21-2007, 02:37 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I like it. I think a nit gives you credit for a flush a lot here.
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dsaxton
Old 01-21-2007, 03:48 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I think this is pretty good.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-21-2007, 06:23 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think this is pretty good.
I would fold a set here IMO if I knew the guy was solid.
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elipsesjeff
Old 01-21-2007, 08:45 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think this is pretty good.
I would fold a set here IMO if I knew the guy was solid.
I wouldnt, not against a PFRer. I check with the intention of calling and hoping you'll bluff, as my bet has zero value.


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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-21-2007, 04:22 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 What people are overlooking here is that this guy is a 10/8, and he cold called preflop! This is a very narrow range, like 66-QQ (is that even too wide?) narrow, possibly AQ.

I think the problem with the bluff is that you have to get someone to fold a set or Top Two Pair... and that's really tough. And yes i do believe some people would overbet that river with a flush. I think if you push the river you may get him to fold, but i don't think you get him to fold enough here.
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Dislexsik
Old 01-21-2007, 04:48 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I think this is a bad spot to bluff.
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-21-2007, 05:15 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
This is a very narrow range, like 66-QQ (is that even too wide?) narrow, possibly AQ.
Your range is a little too tight. I see KK/KQ calling the turn easy, not willing to give up from a possibly bluffed turn. He's clearly giving me a lot of credit for a flush, as he didn't raise what was a possible flush draw on the turn.
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andy-akb
Old 01-21-2007, 05:45 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
This is a very narrow range, like 66-QQ (is that even too wide?) narrow, possibly AQ.
Your range is a little too tight. I see KK/KQ calling the turn easy, not willing to give up from a possibly bluffed turn. He's clearly giving me a lot of credit for a flush, as he didn't raise what was a possible flush draw on the turn.
Do you really think KK is in his range? I mean _maybe_ it is possible, but nothing we really should put much weight at all to, and a 10/8 is not playing KQ to a raise while in the SB.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-21-2007, 07:15 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 If QQ is than KK is. KQ, versus a loose raiser I wouldn't be suprised if he did.
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andy-akb
Old 01-21-2007, 08:26 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
If QQ is than KK is. KQ, versus a loose raiser I wouldn't be suprised if he did.
Most players, let alone nits, do not play QQ and KK the same. I 3bet both from any position basically every time, a 10/8 player could easily smooth call with QQ while 3betting KK, I would be surprised if they smooth called KK here very often, but I still think KQ is less likely than even KK. Yea, against a loose raiser I am most likely 3betting KQ PF as most solid players will; however, a 10/8 is simply not adjusting _that_ much to their opponents, otherwise they wouldnt be 10/8.

In all honesty, from a lot of the hands you have posted recently I feel like you are trying too hard to outplay people postflop and I really think it is going to get you in trouble.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-22-2007, 12:46 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb

In all honesty, from a lot of the hands you have posted recently I feel like you are trying too hard to outplay people postflop and I really think it is going to get you in trouble.
I think he has a point, Danny...
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-22-2007, 12:51 AM #17 (permalink)  
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 I'd like zook and dsaxton to explain themselves then.
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gabe
Old 01-22-2007, 12:55 AM #18 (permalink)  
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just push river
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