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Bluff on monotone flop

  
 
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RugbyDonk
Old 03-23-2010, 09:17 PM     Post subject: Bluff on monotone flop #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is an average lag reg. haven't played with him too much and haven't been caught bluffing recently. Thought process revolves around ISF's theorem; my range is way stronger than his on this flop. I rep more straights, flushes, and sets.

is this a good spot to bluff or spew?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($82.10)
SB ($320.15)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($194.40)
MP ($100)
CO ($106.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 7
1 fold, MP bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) 6, 4, 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8, 1 fold, Hero raises $22, MP calls $14

Turn: ($55) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, MP calls $22

River: ($99) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $52.50 (All-In)
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meeloche
Old 03-23-2010, 11:02 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I wouldn't usually continue on that turn. In his eyes it reduces the combo of sets and I doubt he folds a flush for 100bb especially given the price he's getting on the river.



 
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jyms
Old 03-24-2010, 12:16 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Most laggs don't bluff call
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RugbyDonk
Old 03-24-2010, 01:05 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms View Post
Most laggs don't bluff call
What do you mean? what do you think his range is after the call?

AKs, KQs, KJs for flushes. 66, 44, 99 for sets. and TT-AA for overs? maybe Ad and drawing?

If thats his range then he has overs a lot more than sets and flushes which is why we'd keep betting.

Maybe that's not a good range tho.
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jyms
Old 03-24-2010, 01:30 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Most laggs are loose aggressive, and typically rely on bluffing and fold equity to win pots. When laggs stop betting and start calling they usually have a strong hand. Either he has a strong hand or he's not a lagg. Laggs don't call 3 streets on mono flops with TP
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 03-24-2010, 02:17 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 I think this is a good idea if his cbetting range wasnt so strong.
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minSim
Old 03-24-2010, 12:30 PM #7 (permalink)  
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It's quite an interesting hand imo. I have some comments and questions, don't take them as advice so much because I'm swimming in this hand a bit as well.

The general thought that came to my mind immediately was that SPR is bad for c/r-bet-bet.
If you make your flop c/r range bigger you can shove turn.

I'm also not sure you are actually bluffing on the flop and turn, maybe even river. I do think your turn+river betsizing isn't getting many folds from better.


Apart from that I have some questions, because I'm pretty lost on ranges:
- Can someone give me a flop cbet/calling range for villain? Especially are TP/overpairs with a diamond more likely than overpairs without a diamond or is it vice versa?
- Are overcards with 1 big diamond (excluding Ad, I assume it 3bets the flop?) generally in it?
- Aren't most of villains made hands waiting for a safe turn (like this one) to shove it in? So what does his call mean?
(I think your turn betsizing makes this a little more interesting because you aren't committing with bare FD's)
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Mr. Diamond
Old 03-24-2010, 01:06 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I'm not sure about this flop c/r, because I think if he cbets this board he has a hand, which is not folding to raise
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griffey24
Old 03-25-2010, 12:51 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond View Post
I'm not sure about this flop c/r, because I think if he cbets this board he has a hand, which is not folding to raise
I sort of agree. I mean, I think his flop cbet on this board is very polarized. So I think he does fold a lot of his range (that we're ahead of probably anyhow) to a c/r, but when he continues I'd be worried.

He's probably playing all overpairs with a diamond this way, hard to say if he'd fold on the river.
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Alexos
Old 03-25-2010, 03:04 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 don't think this is very good, he's not folding better for half pot
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Luke999
Old 03-25-2010, 11:47 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
don't think this is very good, he's not folding better for half pot
Question:
If we did have a boat it would be a good spot to bet halfpot on the turn right? We aren't really protecting from much and if villan has an overpair with a diamond or is peeling very light with Ad we'd want him to call turn and allow him to catch the flush or give him a chance to bluff.

Sorry to go off track.
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tstrout
Old 03-25-2010, 02:43 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I'm not folding overpairs or a flush to that river bet. River bet has no value. Every hand that calls you has you beat. Your bet is a 100% bluff in my opinion and unlikely to fold anything other than AKo/AQo with 1 diamond.
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RugbyDonk
Old 03-25-2010, 02:44 PM #13 (permalink)  
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So what do you guys suggest?

Just dont bluff on monotone flops in general?
bluff the flop is fine but give up on turn?
bet the turn larger?

here's the outcome:
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($82.10)
SB ($320.15)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($194.40)
MP ($100)
CO ($106.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
1 fold, MP bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8, 1 fold, Hero raises $22, MP calls $14

Turn: ($55) (2 players)
Hero bets $22, MP calls $22

River: ($99) (2 players)
Hero bets $52.50 (All-In), MP calls $52.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $204

Results:
Hero had 7, 7 (two pair, sevens and fours).
MP had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and fours).
Outcome: MP won $201
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Alexos
Old 03-25-2010, 02:58 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke999 View Post
Question:
If we did have a boat it would be a good spot to bet halfpot on the turn right? We aren't really protecting from much and if villan has an overpair with a diamond or is peeling very light with Ad we'd want him to call turn and allow him to catch the flush or give him a chance to bluff.

Sorry to go off track.
Sure yeah, especially with those stacks. It's just alot harder to bluff when stacks only allow u to bet 2/5 pot on turn and half pot on river.

Rugby- bluffing monotone flops is good because they won't be able to continue very often. Even if they have an overpair here w/out a diamond their equity is trash vs your c/r range and many turns r ugly.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 03-28-2010, 06:07 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 You can bluff monotone flops, but there needs to be a weak range to bluff off. In this case the opponents cbetting range basically has no air except really strong bare diamonds. You don't want to try and bluff this range.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 03-28-2010, 07:12 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
You can bluff monotone flops, but there needs to be a weak range to bluff off. In this case the opponents cbetting range basically has no air except really strong bare diamonds. You don't want to try and bluff this range.
With deeper stacks you could make a big bluff here but I agree with this.
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Alexos
Old 03-28-2010, 10:41 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld View Post
You can bluff monotone flops, but there needs to be a weak range to bluff off. In this case the opponents cbetting range basically has no air except really strong bare diamonds. You don't want to try and bluff this range.
i think he's still cbetting a bunch here.

we can also make the argument that since he's cbetting into 2 ppl our c/r range will be stronger here and we get more respect.
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minSim
Old 03-29-2010, 10:46 AM #18 (permalink)  
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So c/c flop c/f turn? or just c/f flop?
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shakesss
Old 03-29-2010, 12:04 PM #19 (permalink)  
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In the last coupe of threads there have been instances where people have c/r flops as a bluff or as a semi bluff and are put in a bad spot when called and the turn is no help. I'm pretty sure ive read some other similar ones. The stacks in these spots are 100bb's. After going through them and thinking about it, i cant seem to figure out what the best bet sizes are for turn and river in such spots. We can go 1/2 or 2/5 on the turn and half pot all in on the river. While this is probably a good option, is it ever credible enough to get some one off a hand after hes called two big bets? Would it be better to size the flop c/r bigger and shove the turn to max FE, or should we be giving up after getting called?

edit: Mr Diamond's thread did not involve a check raise. Omitted the line.
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Dex
Old 03-30-2010, 05:25 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shakesss View Post
After going through them and thinking about it, i cant seem to figure out what the best bet sizes are for turn and river in such spots. We can go 1/2 or 2/5 on the turn and half pot all in on the river. While this is probably a good option, is it ever credible enough to get some one off a hand after hes called two big bets? Would it be better to size the flop c/r bigger and shove the turn to max FE, or should we be giving up after getting called?
I just wanted to kind of discuss this for a few reasons to see what other people think.

1) I know it's been covered in terms of the bet sizing being awkward, but: Before we c/r the flop, how much thought is given to the sizing that will be created on further streets? Once we have c/r we're left with an awkward turn bet and then an awkward river bet that a lot of/most Villains will have a hard time turning down.

Betting $22 on the turn gives us about 53% of the pot left behind on the river. If we're gonna bet that little, we could consider $16 (leaving $58.5 and 67% psb behind) or $14 ($60.5 and 73%). I don't think it makes us that much more likely to be bluffed or semi-bluffed out, or more importantly off our potential range. If we intend to shove the river we really need to give ourselves as much fold equity as possible. I know it's stating the obvious, but still.

2) Aren't a lot of villains, particularly the laggier ones, more likely to get a hand like AdKx, or AxKd, in on the flop? 4 flush boards are generally action killers, and big pairs have more showdown value/are better bluff catches. So does this weight villain's ranges towards big pairs with or without diamonds? Which increases the need to have more fold equity on the river?

3) If we intend to commit our stack on a bluff, would it better to c/c the flop and c/r the turn? Villain would have a harder time calling a turn c/r given pot size/stack size/reduced equity than when we raise the flop. Potentially it also means we don't have to commit our whole stack to the bluff this way.

I dunno, just some thoughts and interested in what other people think.
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