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Bet Sizing help please.

  
 
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euphoricism
Old 12-03-2007, 11:16 PM     Post subject: Bet Sizing help please. #1 (permalink)  
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I 4x pre. Get a call from a LOOPy player on the button. 8x in the pot assumin blinds are raked. 46bb left in my stack. On the flop I cbet some amount.

Let's assume has 8 outs, and he's guaranteed to stack me if he hits one of them How big does my cbet have to be to make it unprofitable for him to call?

Can someone show me the maths? I get the feeling my cbet size is wrong-o.
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bigspenda73
Old 12-03-2007, 11:21 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 shoving sounds right if you know he'll call
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Old 12-03-2007, 11:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 17% to hit turn card would be >17% of remaining stacks assuming you are going to get it all in (implied) I would say pot is fair.

34% by the river means 2X pot or 16x, but if he's going to stack you shove. He's only 34%
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euphoricism
Old 12-03-2007, 11:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Obviously if I know he'll call, shoving with the best hand is always good.

But let's assume he'll only call when he has the proper odds. What size can he call?

My thoughts, which are probably wrong. Lets call our cbet size Q for sake of simplicity..
His odds are wins 8BB+46bb:Q, or 54:Q

and he breaks even when 54:Q = 4.5:1 so I get..

Code:
54          4.5
----   =  -----
Q            1
which is basically 54/4.5=Q, and Q=12.

I'd have to bet 12 into 8 to make it break-even.
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euphoricism
Old 12-04-2007, 12:27 AM #5 (permalink)  
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5x pfr equation is 50/4.5 = 11x, just over pot to break even. And thats assuming we always stack off on the turn (we don't) and villain always has 8 outs+ (they dont). So I guess thats one change I need to make.
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