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will641
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05-20-2009, 06:29 PM
Post subject: bet river?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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villain is 18/14/2 over 100 hands fwiw. his range seems heavily weighted to 88-JJ. im wondering if this river is a bet given that. an argument for checking back is obviously with the flush card he would probably fold to anything large, so maybe a gay bet is in order? i think if river is a non spade its a pretty clear bet.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($204.40)
MP ($210.95)
Hero (Button) ($498.10)
SB ($128)
BB ($228.30)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , J
1 fold, MP bets $6, Hero calls $6, 2 folds
Flop: ($15) Q , 7, 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $12, MP calls $12
Turn: ($39) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $28, MP calls $28
River: ($95) 3 (2 players)
MP checks,
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check it back, he's folding a queen here if you bet big
if he has JJ he can never put us on a worse hand because every single draw has two pair or straight or flush
and don't feel bad when he shows 88-JJ because he probably folds those hands on the river to any bet that is not super gayly-sized
in this situation, I don't expect him to have better a lot, but I don't expect him to call either
he has some hands in his range that beat us though, like 76, 66
there's some value in betting, but I just don't see how we can make anything other than an "insult" bet of like $15
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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is there any chance he will c/r bluff here? even to a gay bet?
i cant see 88-TT call here, JJ maybe cry calls but i doubt it. Prob just check back though im interested in others opinion.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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seems like a pretty clear bet and i dont know why you want to size it small if you have any respect for his hand reading ability
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
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cbet % is pretty important here, idk why people always put the wrong info.. like when they get 4bet, they put the other guys 3bet% info wtf (nothin against u Will just a general observation  )
anyway, it def looks like 88-JJ a lot so id bet this river always, maybe ~$65ish
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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i guess its one of those spots where u ask urself why in the world would he c/c 3 streets with QK/AK or better (lol) so no point checking
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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CBAT
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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I'm checking. River hits too much of his range.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBAT
I'm checking. River hits too much of his range.
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u think a big part of his range is FD's or 3x?
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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You're good a ridiculous amount of the time, and given the passive line he's taken plus the scary river he'll just reckon we're trying to bluff him.
Rivers a def bet, a gay bet doesn't achieve much as it's very unlikely he'll spazz if you bet small, $68 on the river please.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Spade is fairly meaningless, in fact it could even help you (he may think you're bluffing at it). Surely he never has a FD here, he'd cbet that if he's anything like a std TAG (which his stats indicate).
I'd tend to make it about $60.
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Just playing to improve.
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
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Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
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Location: Toronto'ish
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBAT
I'm checking. River hits too much of his range.
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u think a big part of his range is FD's or 3x? |
ummm 6x?
Villain here seems very tight, and that's not to say that we're not ahead, but I'm not really convinced a river bet here has THAT much value given the board.
flush and straight gets there, and while he might not have those, it makes a call from worse by a tight player a lot more unlikely. I'm not surprised to see KQ by passive nitish players here either.
56 and 67 also seem possible here. meh I think I check here sometimes, but if I have a read that he plays 99-JJ type hands on this board like this and/or is prone to heroish calls then I'd bet $60ish.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
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I agree with griffey
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
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if i've seen him make some hero calls in the past then i like a bet, but really wtf are we ahead of that calls a bet on this river? 99-JJ is pure hero call and is behind always vs our range here. i mean, maybe we get exactly KQ to fold, but that seems like the only upside to betting here imo.
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
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c-bet%?
It's really unlikely he has you beat imo... whether I bet or not depends on my faith in his hero-call ability, and I'd definitely try to make it look like a bluff. I don't think anything under 2/3 pot is getting called by a middle pair.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.
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I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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i didnt post cbet stat cause its worthless over 100 hands but i dug it up to satisfy the masses. 67% over 3 spots!!!
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.
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I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play |
i agree with this theoretically, but imo people severely overestimate the impact of metagame at levels like .5/1 & 1/2 with huge player pools on stars and ftp.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.
|
I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play |
i agree with this theoretically, but imo people severely overestimate the impact of metagame at levels like .5/1 & 1/2 with huge player pools on stars and ftp. |
I don't know, when I go through the lobby on tilt I have like 2 people on each table already marked
when I sit down I get 3b and 4b like the first hand
so obviously at least it matters the first hand
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Silly String
Don't forget the metagame associated with our river bet even if he folds to it. The fact that we 3barrel here may get us called later.
|
I changed my mind, our bet here merges our range and if he calls us with KQ we'll gain in the future since he's less likely to look us up in spots where we bluff in the future
So when we have a wide range for betting on a scary river we win whether we are bluffing or betting for thin value since it makes all of his marginal hands very difficult to play |
i agree with this theoretically, but imo people severely overestimate the impact of metagame at levels like .5/1 & 1/2 with huge player pools on stars and ftp. |
I don't know, when I go through the lobby on tilt I have like 2 people on each table already marked
when I sit down I get 3b and 4b like the first hand
so obviously at least it matters the first hand |
it def matters, i just think some people overrate it. I have probably 10 people in my DB that i have 2k + hands with no datamining.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Unless he has 66 your good here, ofc bet
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