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Back to the grind : AA = Action

  
 
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Genitruc
Old 01-14-2008, 08:06 PM     Post subject: Back to the grind : AA = Action #1 (permalink)  
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 My image is pretty aggro, haven’t been caught yet.

Wowens is an aggro tag (24/20ish) and Iluckyme is a nit (13/8)

Lucky thought for quite some time before raising the flop.



$400 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, January 14, 15:18:41 ET 2008
Table Table 127889 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Hulda3 ( $400.06 USD )
Seat 3: Iluckyme ( $473.10 USD )
Seat 4: marken_78 ( $228.70 USD )
Seat 6: wowenslowen ( $652 USD )
Seat 5: HERO ( $533.50 USD )
Seat 2: Overdrink ( $400 USD )
Iluckyme posts small blind [$2 USD].
marken_78 posts big blind [$4 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO
HERO raises [$14 USD]
wowenslowen calls [$14 USD]
Hulda3 folds.
Iluckyme calls [$12 USD]
marken_78 folds.

** Dealing Flop **

Iluckyme checks.
HERO bets [$35 USD]
wowenslowen calls [$35 USD]
Iluckyme raises [$70 USD]
HERO…
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-14-2008, 09:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 call and fold the turn most of the time.
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Pelion
Old 01-14-2008, 10:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
call and fold the turn most of the time.
what are we hoping for ?
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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bair
Old 01-14-2008, 10:35 PM #4 (permalink)  
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why are we considering folding? does a 13/8 even call pf oop with 22 (i think this is a fold a high percentage of the time for this player)? 66? I suppose its more likely since its 3-way but arent KQ and AK much more likely or are you reading the check minraise as set city? this guy flatting AK oop is definitely possible, if not likely. im calling the flop to get womenslowen's dead money in there, and then bet/calling any non-q turn, bet/folding a q turn, and check/folding a K turn.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.619% 65.62% 00.00% 15591 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 34.381% 34.38% 00.00% 8169 0.00 { 66, 22, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.227% 50.23% 00.00% 5967 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 49.773% 49.77% 00.00% 5913 0.00 { 66, 22, AKs, AKo }

If you use the second range and incorporate g-bucks to weigh 66 over 22 and AK, it might get close to a call + check/fold to big beg, but probably not because its 3-way so dead money. If you weigh 22 and 66 heavily over AK (which I think is wrong) then it is probably a call, check/fold to big bet on turn.

All that said, range 1 should definitely be used and its not close to a fold at any point in the hand.
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Genitruc
Old 01-14-2008, 11:53 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I think once there's a caller sandwiched between myself and the nit, he's more likely to call with 22
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-15-2008, 12:04 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Yeah i kind of agree with bair
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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Irisheyes
Old 01-15-2008, 09:04 AM #7 (permalink)  
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yep bair wins
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Galapogos
Old 01-15-2008, 03:13 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Gross, I really don't think a nit is check/min-raising the PFR and a caller with AK here. Sounds nitty but I really think we're way behind.

I make my decision based on post-flop reads. You must have some idea on how he plays TPTK don't you?


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I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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Genitruc
Old 01-15-2008, 04:37 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
Gross, I really don't think a nit is check/min-raising the PFR and a caller with AK here. Sounds nitty but I really think we're way behind.

I make my decision based on post-flop reads. You must have some idea on how he plays TPTK don't you?
nope
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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noble007
Old 01-15-2008, 05:23 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Whats the nits aggression factor?
13/8 doesnt say alot.

22/66 easily for a 13/8 with a raise & call in front & sb discount pre-flop.
(6 combinations)

Dry board, no draws, K high flop.
Villian check, Hero Cbets followed by wowenslowen who just flat calls?
Then after seeing this a nit min check raises oop - when is this ever not a set?

(KQ unlikely to be in his range imo)
Ak is unlikely & I would expect a 3bet here 50% + of the time with a raise and a call in front, + there are only 6 combinations remaining (2 Aces and 1 K are accounted for.)
Also what do you put wowenslowen on? if its not a big hand/ a float-turn steal his most likely holding is a King.

(Therefore only 2 kings and 2 Aces are probably unnacounted for, a total of only 4 combinations remain for villian, + as I said he would usually 3bet pre so likely combinations is less and + it would be a really wierd way to play it - check min-raising oop?)

This looks like an easy fold to me. (But I dont play those stakes)

at best its 6 set vs 6 Ak combinations - ignoring wowenslowens holding
more likely 6 set vs 2-4 Ak combinations - again ignoring wowenslowens could also have a big hand.
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bair
Old 01-15-2008, 05:35 PM #11 (permalink)  
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i fail to see why KQ is not in his range, at least KQs. im no pokerstove or math expert, so i could be wrong, but these are top 12% hands and his vpip is 13. 22+,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+. add in that we have another player in the pot, that probably adds 25% more hands to his actual range(whatever it is, im not saying its that). concerning postflop ranges, ive never minraised a flop in my life, but its actually might be kinda good with AK and KQ here 3-way.
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noble007
Old 01-15-2008, 06:04 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Dude you could be right its just my opinion.

Even though he's a 13/8, the gap between his vpip and hands he raises pre-flop is only about 5%.

(This is in line with most decent players & calling a raise oop usually consists of low-medium pp & sc type hands not KQ which is obv dominated by AK/AQ .)

That combined with the way he played the flop check min-raising oop into two people made it seem pretty unlikely based on my own experience of similiar lines that he had a tpgk type hand.

If he's aggressive enough he could be repping a set with something like 67s but KQ isn't really in there for me, but again just my opinion

(Also regarding min-raising flop - I wouldnt do it but it seems less bad with a hand like 67 where you have 5 outs to an overpair & on such a dry board you might get hero to fold TT+ & alot of the kings in his range but with a hand like QK you're either way ahead or way behind and a min raise would only fold out hands you already beat - again not sure just myopin.)

For me this hand does depend on villlians aggression though.
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andy-akb
Old 01-15-2008, 06:43 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
call and fold the turn most of the time.
could you expand on this a little bit?

I think we have to call simply because there is no reason for him to raise a set on a b0ard this dry, especially when the pot is already getting big. We cannot assume he will play a set like this with absolutely no reason to think he plays tricky; however, I still have a hard time putting him on a range that he would do this with. So while I think we are ahead and should call, I feel unsure of where to go from there.
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Lukie
Old 01-15-2008, 10:23 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
Gross, I really don't think a nit is check/min-raising the PFR and a caller with AK here. Sounds nitty but I really think we're way behind.

I make my decision based on post-flop reads. You must have some idea on how he plays TPTK don't you?
ofc a nit isn't c/minraising 2 ppl oop with a king very often in this spot

just call and spike an ace on the turn, problem solved
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sauce123
Old 01-15-2008, 10:34 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
call and fold the turn most of the time.
what are we hoping for ?
{AK, KQ, 66, 22}
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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Lukie
Old 01-15-2008, 10:37 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 how often is he going to play each hand like this? 66/22 need to be weighted a lot heavier than kq/ak. I think it's a call, see what happens on the turn.

kinda tough to play AA here. having KK is much better. If we had KK, then I would just call.
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Genitruc
Old 01-15-2008, 10:40 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
how often is he going to play each hand like this? 66/22 need to be weighted a lot heavier than kq/ak. I think it's a call, see what happens on the turn.

kinda tough to play AA here. having KK is much better. If we had KK, then I would just call.
fk me wrong hole cards... AGAIN
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Lukie
Old 01-16-2008, 12:15 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 huh?
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-16-2008, 01:38 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 yeah basically if he has a set he's going to play it a lot harder on the following streets than KQ and AK.

That's why i said call the flop.

And obviously if you spike an A you get his stack so there's some decent equity there.
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Genitruc
Old 01-16-2008, 01:49 AM #20 (permalink)  
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 re : Lukie

I dunno maybe I outlevelled myself thinking you were joking about KK being easier to play on this board
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Lukie
Old 01-16-2008, 02:01 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genitruc
re : Lukie

I dunno maybe I outlevelled myself thinking you were joking about KK being easier to play on this board
no i definitely was not joking. KK is definitely better and easier to play on this board (given action, ofc)
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Genitruc
Old 01-16-2008, 10:48 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 yet another reason why folding the flop sux is because you can't give results in a thread like this one
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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benny999
Old 01-17-2008, 06:16 AM #23 (permalink)  
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i like calling and evaluating. usually it's a set - that's how nits make $$...and check-calling aggro players with AK.
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larsmars
Old 01-18-2008, 12:12 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bair
why are we considering folding? does a 13/8 even call pf oop with 22 (i think this is a fold a high percentage of the time for this player)? 66? I suppose its more likely since its 3-way but arent KQ and AK much more likely or are you reading the check minraise as set city? this guy flatting AK oop is definitely possible, if not likely. im calling the flop to get womenslowen's dead money in there, and then bet/calling any non-q turn, bet/folding a q turn, and check/folding a K turn.
I think he's much more likely to call pre-flop with 22/66 than with KQ, aka set mining. Also, I don't think he would c/r two players on a super dry flop with KQ. He might flat call pre with AK, but set alarms should be going off. Like noble said, there aren't that many AK combinations left in the deck, and you would have to think there's a pretty good chance he would re-raise it pre-flop. If the third guy comes along, it's code red and you should not put any more money in unless you spike that ace on the turn.
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Lukie
Old 01-19-2008, 06:49 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 after further analysis, with the aid of some high quality drink, i've come to the conclusion that this is never KQ. you guyz are crazy.

srsly, set camping nit calls oop with kq then c/minraises 2 ppl on ultra dry k62 board. riiiiiiiiiiiiite.
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