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ATs facing allin preflop

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Lukie

12-06-2006, 11:13 PM Post subject: ATs facing allin preflop

#1 (permalink)

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yes, I'm serious.

If I remember correctly, I've been playing alright, nothing remarkable, not overly aggressive or nitty. I really have no idea why I don't have 400+ on this table.

Villain is an unknown. I havn't been paying much attention to this table. I have a couple heads up games going on other tables and have too many open to begin with. WHAT I DO KNOW: I opened up the recent hands list and this guy had won the large majority of them. With the limited time I had to go through them, he hadn't overbet pushed a single time but was raising a ton preflop.

Basically what I want to know is, what can I expect to see here? I think we can weight it away from the monster pairs and complete garbage, but I think he needs a decent-semi decent hand to make this push. I don't really know how to weight it though to be honest or what hands he can be doing with.

Anybody want to venture a guess and say whether this is a call or fold? I'm not interested in hearing 'wait for a better spot', all I really care is if this is +EV or not. If it is, I call. Assume that wanting to play deeper with this guy cancles out future implications of me calling him here semi-light (eg he would be less likely to push in the future) so neither of those matter.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($1392.45)
Button ($340.30)
Hero ($342)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

, A

.
1 fold, Hero raises to $16, BB raises to $1392.45

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Warpe

12-06-2006, 11:35 PM

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I'm tempted to call for shits and giggles.

gabe

12-06-2006, 11:52 PM

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gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

this would be the worst call ever.

Warpe

12-06-2006, 11:53 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

this would be the worst call ever.

oh yeah, definitely.

I can't imagine what villain has. I'd assume AA and also assume he has brain damage.

Alexos

12-07-2006, 12:24 AM

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lolol!!

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12-07-2006, 12:35 AM

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Numbr2intheWorld

12-07-2006, 12:38 AM

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you are mistaking loose aggression in other areas for loose aggression here. I'm pretty sure you said he has never reraise pushed preflop, right? You don't know what that action means, then. He could be a loose raiser, but is he a loose reraiser? Does he push with nuts are shit.

Sadly you don't know these factors so you can't possibly call here and have it be +EV.

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Lukie

12-07-2006, 01:04 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Warpe

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

this would be the worst call ever.

oh yeah, definitely.

I can't imagine what villain has. I'd assume AA and also assume he has brain damage.

lol no, it is a 1-tabling aggrofish, in a blind war, i have an ace, he thinks he's all bossy, and despite not pushing yet pre, he has raised like every hand and I think that means something. oh, and while it might be smart for just this reasoning, who plays AA like this? I'd be shocked to see AA. WHICH MEANS WORST CASE SCENARIO, ONE OF MY CARDS IS LIVE, RIGHT??

Lukie

12-07-2006, 01:07 AM

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Ok, I called.

I'll be taking guesses as to what he had. Possible prize(s) to the first person with the correct answer.

hint #1: I was quite pleased with my call after the hand.

hint #2: It wasn't something absolutely ridiculous. e.g. not 92o or a hand of similar preflop worth.

hint #3: If you think I won this hand at showdown, you're crazy. I've actually never won a hand that was all-in before the flop, favorite or not.

Warpe

12-07-2006, 01:07 AM

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You didn't...

lolzzz_321

12-07-2006, 01:10 AM

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swiggidy

12-07-2006, 01:11 AM

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Pelion

12-07-2006, 01:18 AM

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A8?

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

benny999

12-07-2006, 01:50 AM

#14 (permalink)

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55?? a guy at my 100nl table today was reraising big whenever he got a pocket pair 22-88

Warpe

12-07-2006, 01:51 AM

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mcatdog

12-07-2006, 01:52 AM

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Someone made this move on me the other day when I had AA, and he showed down JTs (it was his second or third hand at the table). It made me wonder whether I should start calling these bets more often. AT is a little bit too terrible of a hand for me to think about calling here though.

IowaSkinsFan

12-07-2006, 02:05 AM

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dsaxton

12-07-2006, 02:07 AM

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Why would you gamble for all your chips with a small edge against a player who will give you his money when you have a big edge?

kmind

12-07-2006, 02:19 AM

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|~|ypermegachi

12-07-2006, 02:23 AM

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AJ+

Lukie

12-07-2006, 02:38 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why would you gamble for all your chips with a small edge against a player who will give you his money when you have a big edge?

because (assuming that I do have a small edge, which may not apply to this hand) it's not like I cover the guy and once he busts, he's gone. He's sitting with 350xbb. If I double through, then I have what I feel is a massive edge against a hugely overaggro player and we're nearly 200bb to boot.

Also, you don't want to pass up small edges in cash games.............

nutsinho

12-07-2006, 02:46 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why would you gamble for all your chips with a small edge against a player who will give you his money when you have a big edge?

i hope you are leveling. i want to shoot myself everytime i hear something like this. even gabe kaplan on high stakes poker says things like "greenstein made that laydown because this is a cash game and not a tournament so even though he had a small edge he correctly decided to wait for a better spot" if its +ev in itself or +ev longterm due to metagame or other reasons, and you have a proper bankroll, you call.

my guess is KQs btw

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drmcboy

12-07-2006, 02:57 AM

#23 (permalink)

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Lukie

12-07-2006, 07:31 AM

#24 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

AJ+

leave off the + sign fool!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($1392.45)
Button ($340.30)
Hero ($342)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

, A

.
1 fold, Hero raises to $16, BB raises to $1392.45, Hero calls $326 (All-In).

Flop: ($1734.45) T

, 5

, 9

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($1734.45) 8

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1734.45) J

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1734.45

Results in white below:
BB has Jd Ah (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Td Ad (one pair, tens).
Outcome: BB wins $1734.45.

Lukie

12-07-2006, 07:38 AM

#25 (permalink)

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btw, this hand happened a couple orbits later. I have 3-bet a few times since and I think he's getting fed up. I probably could have found a fold somewhere, but given my experience with super aggro donk fishes, the way this hand played out, it's really never a monster pair. He'd probably smooth call or do something like min 4-bet pre, and the flop bet is laughable. riiiiiiiight man, if you have AA I'll pay it off....

edit: he actually did min 4-bet pre. ha! I'm funny.

He left after this hand by the way HYACHACHACHACH

also, when I had no idea that this guy was THIS crazy. If this hand had taken place before the one in the OP then I would have beat him in the pot with ATs. As is, I think that was a marginally bad call but not nearly as bad as people think. This is possibly results oriented but I'm not sure.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($1735.45)
MP ($115.20)
Button ($329.90)
Hero ($396)
BB ($96)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

, T

.
UTG raises to $16, 2 folds, Hero raises to $56, 1 fold, UTG raises to $96, Hero calls $40.

Flop: ($196) 3

, 4

, 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $180, Hero raises to $300, UTG calls $120.

Turn: ($796) A

(2 players)

River: ($796) 8

(2 players)

Final Pot: $796

Results in white below:
Hero has Tc Ts (two pair, tens and eights).
UTG has Jd Qh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $796.

gabe

12-07-2006, 07:51 AM

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i cant believe you called this.

dont move up quite yet.

gabe

12-07-2006, 07:53 AM

#27 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if its +ev in itself or +ev longterm due to metagame or other reasons, and you have a proper bankroll, you call.

i think there are some special dynamics involved with 1-tabling LAG fish that makes this not true because of different things they will do depending on results of hand

Lukie

12-07-2006, 08:18 AM

#28 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

i cant believe you called this.

dont move up quite yet.

you're playing against a guy that is raising almost literally every hand preflop. you're not paying much attention. you're not quite sure how he will respond to a raise in front. You open your sb with a hand that is actually ahead of the vast majority of hands in the game and the villain instantly goes all-in in the BB.

Sorry, if this is a bad call then it's certainly not terrible. It's not like it's a 9-tabling regular that is obviously doing something that looks retarded to get a call.

Lukie

12-07-2006, 08:20 AM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if its +ev in itself or +ev longterm due to metagame or other reasons, and you have a proper bankroll, you call.

i think there are some special dynamics involved with 1-tabling LAG fish that makes this not true because of different things they will do depending on results of hand

agreed, which can be reasonable justification for passing up a small edge, but I also want to get deeper with the guy which can be reasonable justification for calling a bit light here. Obviously if I'm always dominated it's the easiest fold ever but I don't think that's the case.

nutsinho

12-07-2006, 08:34 AM

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good call bad beat

My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.

Lukie

12-07-2006, 08:41 AM

#31 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

good call bad beat

haha, my thoughts exactly

Pelion

12-07-2006, 12:07 PM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if its +ev in itself or +ev longterm due to metagame or other reasons, and you have a proper bankroll, you call.

Thats true at 100bbs since you can always rebuy. BUT if the money is deep so rebuying would mean effective stacks are much smaller then you have to consider yourself as effectivly on a short bankroll and I think folding small edges (when you know you are against a player who will give you bigger ones later) is correct.

e.g. Villain has a nasty habbit that when he gets a PP, (any PP) he open pushes preflop (or pushes over a raise) and turns his cards up. Folded to you in the SB with 600BBs. Villain also has 600BBs in the BB. You make it 4BB with AcKc and villain pushes the rest in before showing you 2d2h.

1,712,304 games 0.010 secs 171,230,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.0842 % 49.77% 00.31% { AcKc }
Hand 2: 49.9158 % 49.60% 00.31% { 2d2h }

When you call you will win 604BB 50.0842% of the time and lose 600BB 49.9158% of the time.

EV is 302.5 - 299.5 = +3BB right here.

So by your logic you should call since it is +EV.

BUT You should wait until you have an overpair and heres why.

The EV of the same situation but with you holding 88 is

1,712,304 games 0.010 secs 171,230,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 80.9849 % 80.48% 00.50% { 8c8d }
Hand 2: 19.0151 % 18.51% 00.50% { 2h2s }

489.1 - 114.1 = +375BB

While the EV of the same situation with 100BB stacks is

84.2 - 19.0 = 65.2

The difference between these two situations is 375 - 65 = 310BB

So you are gambling 3BB of EV now to hopefully win an extra 310BB later.

You are getting implied odds of 103:1 so you dont have to be right very often. You need him to put you allin with an underpair less than 1% of the time after this for it to be correct to fold the AK hand.

Obviously this is an exaggerated example but it illustrates the point that even in cash games it is sometimes correct to fold small edges and wait for bigger ones. Obviously with 100BBs you can always rebuy for the same amount so it is ALWAYS incorrect to fold any edge.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

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givememyleg

12-07-2006, 12:15 PM

#33 (permalink)

WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
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Lukie, you're sick.

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Renton

12-07-2006, 01:25 PM

#34 (permalink)

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i think the bottom line here is that you NEVER SAW HIM PUSH BEFORE

The second biggest consideration is that you are barely ahead when ahead, and drawing very unlive when behind.

sandstorm

12-07-2006, 01:26 PM

#35 (permalink)

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fold

>3

this is my favourite part of the post
it looks like angry boobs

b-rabbit

12-07-2006, 09:27 PM

#36 (permalink)

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YOU GUYS ARE CRAZY

do the right thing.

Lukie

12-07-2006, 10:26 PM

#37 (permalink)

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consider:

This player had basically been playing the same way for another orbit or two. This hand happened AFTER the hand in the OP so it doesn't apply to my decision making in that hand. It just goes to show you how a crazy laggfish overvalues hands. Things to point out: repopping from the blinds when this guy opens UTG is such a massive show of strength compared to simply opening from the SB. It is also a 6handed table instead of 3 handed. QJ is soooo much weaker then AT/AJ in terms of preflop strength. yadayadayada. I don't expect to convince anyone, but whatever.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($1735.45)
MP ($115.20)
Button ($329.90)
Hero ($396)
BB ($96)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

, T

.
UTG raises to $16, 2 folds, Hero raises to $56, 1 fold, UTG raises to $96, Hero calls $40.

Flop: ($196) 3

, 4

, 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $180, Hero raises to $300, UTG calls $120.

Turn: ($796) A

(2 players)

River: ($796) 8

(2 players)

Final Pot: $796

Results in white below:
Hero has Tc Ts (two pair, tens and eights).
UTG has Jd Qh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $796.

|~|ypermegachi

12-07-2006, 10:58 PM

#38 (permalink)

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for what it's worth (i suck at NL), i think this is a bad call.

you got ATs. at best, you're against 2 unders, in which case you're 2:1 to win. under pair, you're coin flip. overpair, you're like 1:7 or something brutal like that. dominated, you're like 1:5.

best case scenario is 2:1, and you're willing to gamble your entire stack? shouldn't even matter who the player is!

mcatdog

12-08-2006, 01:28 AM

#39 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

best case scenario is 2:1, and you're willing to gamble your entire stack?

mcatdog

12-08-2006, 01:34 AM

#40 (permalink)

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For what it's worth, I don't agree with this call, but I don't think it's THAT bad. I think I would probably call with a range of 88+, AQ, AK.

Maybe it's because I like to play with a 100-buyin bankroll, but I don't understand why the specter of losing a buyin if we're wrong is supposed to be so horrifying. Are you guys the nits who wait for AA when a maniac like this is at the table and curse your bad luck when someone else stacks him twice before you get the chance to play a hand?

Not being willing to gamble with these guys is a huge waste of money. I got berated by one of those nits for calling all-in preflop with AK last night and stacking the maniac (obviously I'm better than Lukie at winning preflop all-ins, work on that dude). Don't be the guy who plays so tight that someone else wins hundreds of dollars while you keep paying your blinds.

|~|ypermegachi

12-08-2006, 03:30 AM

#41 (permalink)

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let's see...

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.2871 % 29.93% 00.36% { ATs }
Hand 2: 69.7129 % 69.36% 00.36% { TT+ }

Hand 1: 30.5087 % 27.61% 02.90% { ATs }
Hand 2: 69.4913 % 66.59% 02.90% { AJs+, AJo+ }

Hand 1: 48.7871 % 48.55% 00.23% { ATs }
Hand 2: 51.2129 % 50.98% 00.23% { 99-22 }

Hand 1: 60.8140 % 60.58% 00.24% { ATs }
Hand 2: 39.1860 % 38.95% 00.24% { KJs+, QJs, KJo+, QJo }

Hand 1: 66.3774 % 66.13% 00.24% { ATs }
Hand 2: 33.6226 % 33.38% 00.24% { 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, 92o+, 82o+, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

hmm...i expected the numbers to be a lot worse than this...

nutsinho

12-08-2006, 03:48 AM

#42 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

best case scenario is 2:1, and you're willing to gamble your entire stack?

My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.

zenbitz

12-08-2006, 04:21 AM

#43 (permalink)

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OK, Lukie - you are correct in that his range pushing here is stupid wide. HOWEVER, aren't you still way behind his range? He would have to be pushing any ace, any pair for this call to be good.

To claim that this was a good call implies AJ is not at the ass-end of his range here, which seems kinda optimistic.

Renton

12-08-2006, 04:31 AM

#44 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

To claim that this was a good call implies AJ is not at the ass-end of his range here, which seems kinda optimistic.

yea, whenever i make a big call and he has like the same hand with a slightly worse kicker, i always fee like my call is kinda poor

elipsesjeff

12-08-2006, 07:12 AM

#45 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

you're not paying much attention.

And this is the number one reason why I fold....

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johnny_fish

12-08-2006, 09:22 AM

#46 (permalink)

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any pair, any broadway.. Easy fold.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.5989 % 47.77% 02.83% { AcTc }
Hand 2: 49.4011 % 46.57% 02.83% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

dsaxton

12-08-2006, 03:20 PM

#47 (permalink)

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I don't see why this is a serious discussion. If I raise with deuces preflop, my opponent pushes all-in for a full buy-in, and shows me A-K, I still fold. I prefer to play poker in cash games, not flip coins.

Also, here's an interesting link about expected value:

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/paradox-stpetersburg/

"The ‘expected value’ of the game is the sum of the expected payoffs of all the consequences. Since the expected payoff of each possible consequence is $1, and there are an infinite number of them, this sum is an infinite number of dollars. A rational gambler would enter a game iff the price of entry was less than the expected value. In the St. Petersburg game, any finite price of entry is smaller than the expected value of the game. Thus, the rational gambler would play no matter how large the finite entry price was. But it seems obvious that some prices are too high for a rational agent to pay to play."

Lukie

12-08-2006, 04:25 PM

#48 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

assume 2/4 with 100bb eff stacks. You open to 16 straight in the co with 22, button tables AKo and pushes allin. Blinds fold.

$384 for you to call to have 52.65% ($424) equity in a $806 pot. Folding is a mistake here that costs you $40. Say your winrate in said 2/4 game is 2.5ptbb/100 (+20cents/hand) This is 200 hands worth of expectation. This is a very bad fold under most circumstances.

edit: if you want to be nit-picky and include rake ($3), it's still a $38.50ish mistake.

Lukie

12-08-2006, 04:29 PM

#49 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

you're basically arguing that a 10% edge isn't good enough to gamble on. It's 1 buy-in. Ouch.

Lukie

12-08-2006, 04:31 PM

#50 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: back with a vengeance

Posts: 3,307

to further prove how right I am in the 22 v AK example, take a professional blackjack player. He counts cards and has roughly a 1% edge. We have a 10% edge on this call (+$38.50 expectation on a $384 call).

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