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Ask ISF about a bluff or bluffing
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dev
V is 36/25/2 over 42 hands
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($59.85)
BB ($133.45)
UTG ($100.90)
MP ($106.50)
CO ($134.15)
Hero (Button) ($107.60)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5  , 3
2 folds, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($8.50) K  , 4  , 10 (2 players)
CO bets $6, Hero raises $12, CO calls $6
Turn: ($32.50) 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $21.10, CO calls $21.10
River: ($74.70) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $71 (All-In)
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Seems really bad, what makes you think he is going to play KK/TT/77/44/QJ/KT/AK/KQ any differently? This is a great example where results oriented negative reinforcement well hurt your game (I have a hunch he folded).
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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Hand 1: Villain is laggy 26/23 cb 90% over 115 hands, should I be including barreling frequency in my hud?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($113.10)
Button ($135.60)
SB ($112.50)
Hero (BB) ($131)
UTG ($426.50)
MP ($230.70)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 7
UTG bets $3, 4 folds, Hero calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) 6 , 5 , 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10
River: ($34.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $21, Hero raises $56
Hand 2: Villain is 30/23/3b's 5% from blinds/fold to cb 44%.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($115.70)
BB ($151.65)
UTG ($71.75)
MP ($101.50)
CO ($286.10)
Hero (Button) ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 2 , 2
3 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) 4 , A , 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($14.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero raises $35
My image is pretty much that I'm never bluffing here so both villains have to think about folding an A imo.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Parasurama
Hand 1: Villain is laggy 26/23 cb 90% over 115 hands, should I be including barreling frequency in my hud?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($113.10)
Button ($135.60)
SB ($112.50)
Hero (BB) ($131)
UTG ($426.50)
MP ($230.70)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7  , 7
UTG bets $3, 4 folds, Hero calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) 6  , 5  , 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10
River: ($34.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $21, Hero raises $56
Hand 2: Villain is 30/23/3b's 5% from blinds/fold to cb 44%.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($115.70)
BB ($151.65)
UTG ($71.75)
MP ($101.50)
CO ($286.10)
Hero (Button) ($100)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 2  , 2
3 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) 4  , A  , 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($14.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero raises $35
My image is pretty much that I'm never bluffing here so both villains have to think about folding an A imo.
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Hand 1: I think I call turn and fold river. This bluff is too odd for me to like, I think there's a good chance he has trips/boat or AK/AQ.
Hand 2: Looks like he has a 9 or an ace. I think as most of the time when he calls this raise he will be losing but he's not going to fold a 9 and sometimes wont fold an ace. If he was unlikely to have a 9 id like it more. I think if those two 9's were an 8's I'd like this more but i think it would still be bad.
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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[quote="IowaSkinsFan"]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Marshall28
Hand 1: I think flatting the raise is much much better than 3betting the flop. I think if you flat the flop that he will check a lot of turns, especially this one, when he missed, and bet when he has a hand. Also, flatting the flop is a more clean rep of a 9 or boat. As played, I doubt he ever is folding the turn. The problem with betting the river is I think his most likely hand on the flop was a 9, boat, diamond draw, or JT. Its hard to put him on a hand but im thinking he has T9/J9 a lot. Its possible you could get him off JT/diamond flush on the river but I think timing would have been longer on the turn, no? It's also likely he'd raise those hands on the turn, while its much more likely he would flat J9/T9.
Hand 2: Well it would seem that he has KQ/AK (lesser amount) a very large % of the time the river bet seems good. I'm wary of preflop. I understand your in position and feel that you are going to have good FE pre and will be able to get people off weak hands postflop. The issue I have is... given a PFR calling range of AQ+, KQ, 22-JJ... the only way you will get him off a hand on is with a multi street bluff like this. A flop cbet without later streets aggression is surely going to be -EV given this range. The turn bet given he may call the flop with 88/66/KQ/AK/99/TT/AQ but fold 22-55, it seems that a turn bet is still -EV. I don't think your aggression postflop in this situation is going to be to your benefit.
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I definitely agree on the first one, it's too likely he has a 9, I should have flatted the flop. (He called river w/ naked JT)
I'm struggling understanding your explanation on the 2nd hand. You said that c-betting the flop w/out planning on firing more barrels is -ev which I agree, and it was my plan to fire multiple barrels. But then you said that the turn bet is -ev since I don't fold out AK/KQ/TT, though those are for sure folding to the river shove, right? Assuming that's the case then it would all be +ev, wouldn't it? (Also if you didn't note we're 400bb deep effective)
Or am I thinking about it completely backwards by looking at the big picture instead of analyzing street by street? Pooruser once told me I need to play 1 street at a time more often, do you think that's the case? Or what am I missing?
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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thanks, yeah def agree about hand 1 being really weird. I kind of just found myself in a situation on the river where I thought he wasn't likely to have a hand strong enough to call, does that make sense?
hand 2: I just thought he was way more likely to have an A than a 9 and that 9x is a big part of my range when I take this line. What do you think about barreling the turn with my gutshot?
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dev
V is 36/25/2 over 42 hands
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($59.85)
BB ($133.45)
UTG ($100.90)
MP ($106.50)
CO ($134.15)
Hero (Button) ($107.60)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5  , 3
2 folds, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($8.50) K  , 4  , 10 (2 players)
CO bets $6, Hero raises $12, CO calls $6
Turn: ($32.50) 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $21.10, CO calls $21.10
River: ($74.70) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $71 (All-In)
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Seems really bad, what makes you think he is going to play KK/TT/77/44/QJ/KT/AK/KQ any differently? This is a great example where results oriented negative reinforcement well hurt your game (I have a hunch he folded).
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I've been 3 barreling a bit lately and this one seemed really thin. He had KJ and called. My first thought was that it was a decent 3 barrel, but I just marked the hh for later and checked it out after the session and wasn't sure. I figured he was agro enough to play bigger hands harder and fold out a lot of the trash that had me beat. Given how strong I was repping by the river I thought I had decent FE. I was wrong.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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26/21/2/38
No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($69.70)
UTG ($205)
MP ($555.65)
Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($245.75)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , K
1 fold, MP bets $6, Hero raises $18, 2 folds, MP calls $12
Flop: ($39) 7 , 4 , Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $31.60, MP calls $31.60
Turn: ($102.20) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
River: ($102.20) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $150.40 (All-In)
Looking back at the hand I don't really get my flop bet amount. Normally I'd go for like 24ish. But as played, with the Ad, river shove?
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Marshall,
What im saying about the turn is he could've flatted the flop with a nut hands and now will raise. Thats a possibility. But betting the turn planning to bet the river if called seems like a good idea. Still, the turn bet seems marginal.
My big problem with the hand is i dont think the preflop threebet is good given our postflop bluffing opportunities. Its likely your going to have a percieved light squeezing range, your better off just squeezing a tight range here.
Pooruser isnt very good at poker so i wouldnt listen to him much but I think his advice seems good.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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When is it okay to bluff with little to no equity?
How is this affected by metagame? I mean we can always say eventually you'll get the same spot with a hand that has better equity so save your bluff until then, but what about if you're playing your first few hands HU and you think you'll have much less fold equity later on or there's a certain dynamic present currently which increases your fold equity which may not be present later?
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I'll try to answer and compare it to ISF's answer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Parasurama
When is it okay to bluff with little to no equity?
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1. When it maximizes your EV in the hand
2. When it creates EV+ opportunities later when you would not have them otherwise
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Parasurama
How is this affected by metagame? I mean we can always say eventually you'll get the same spot with a hand that has better equity so save your bluff until then, but what about if you're playing your first few hands HU and you think you'll have much less fold equity later on or there's a certain dynamic present currently which increases your fold equity which may not be present later?
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No, because it might be more profitable to bluff two or three times in a row than to only pick the best spot and bluff. And then if you pick up a hand after bluffing several times in a row you're more likely to get paid.
Easy example: you 3b someone the first hand of a HU match. Then the next time you 3b him again on your BB. Then you 3b him a third time. Then you get QQ and 3b him the fourth time in a row he'll probably peel really light or 4b as a bluff because you 3b him every single time so far.
So maybe your third 3b had a slightly negative expectation, but you feel that your opponent will overadjust and view you as a maniac so it's EV+ for image.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I'll try to answer and compare it to ISF's answer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Parasurama
When is it okay to bluff with little to no equity?
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1. When it maximizes your EV in the hand
2. When it creates EV+ opportunities later when you would not have them otherwise
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Dude I think you just killed the forum.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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I started a response to ask about river bluffing frequencies, but writing it resulted in some sort of thoughtprocess. So I guess all I can ask is whether I hit something here or not:
Let’s say on an A high board I expect my opponent to have AQ, AJ and AT.
I expect him to call a decently sized bet with AQ and AJ and fold AT. (so villain folds 33%)
Betting a PSB (let’s say 100) here means we lose 66 (0,66*100) everytime we bluff and win 66 (0,33*(100+100)) everytime we bluff, so the EV of every bluff is 0.
Funny thing here is that the odds we are offering are the same as the FE we have (2:1 vs 33% FE).
If we i.e. bet 3/4 PSB instead of full pot, we lose 50 (0,66 x 75) and win 57,75 (0,33 x (100+75), making it +EV bluff with every hand.
Game theory says to have a value:bluff ratio related with the odds you’re offering your opponent.
In the above example we’re offering 2:1 with a PSB, meaning we should bluff for a PSB a third of the time we valuebet. GT isn’t very practical in most of our games thou. This is only of relevance if villain adjusts his calling ranges based on our bluffing frequencies, which is very rare.
(I have no experience in any stakes higher than 100NL, but I can’t imagine people having good enough reads on people to really come close to wanting to follow GTO strategies)
So my conclusion is, as long as the odds we are offering ourselves to our bluff (betsizing) is better than the FE we have, we are making money.
The FE we have in a given situation is always the same, whether it is 70%, 30% or 0%. So in my view, river bluffing shouldn’t rely on frequencies, it should be on betsizing and FE.
Of course they are related in that a bigger bet usually comes with more FE. But imo our thoughtprocess should not be ‘I want to be bluffing here x amount of time’, but should be ‘I have x amount of FE with y betsizing, is that profitable?’.
If the answer is yes, you should bluff and should do so with every non-value hand (excluding +EV check behinds), not with a certain frequency.
The next time you face the same situation with another hand, it’s the same question although you probably have a little less FE this time (if villain adjusts). That could mean you don’t want to be bluffing anymore, because it just came –EV. But it’s not because of some frequency.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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oh yeah the specific situation I wanted to ask about is when I flat a LP open out of the blinds with the intention of c/r a lot of flops. It's profitable when I do it but I also know I have awful equity when called.
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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attempt at raptor bet DEEP
OPP seemed LAGGY so far
I set this up for a good river shove, the problem is I have no equity but the main thing I'm wondering is if this is a REASONABLE spot or board texture to use this sort of betting. Is this a case where I'm repping like nothing and he's repping like nothing but he's pulling the final trigger?
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO DenisDiderot ($116.50)
BTN Hero ($324.87)
SB Take_It_Back ($103.00)
BB gregoire60 ($294.90)
Pre-flop: ($1.50, 4 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, gregoire60 raises to $9.50, Hero raises to $26, gregoire60 raises to $42.50, Hero calls $16.50
Flop: ($85.50, 2 players)
gregoire60 checks, Hero bets $33, gregoire60 calls $33
Turn: ($151.50, 2 players)
gregoire60 checks, Hero bets $45, gregoire60 calls $45
River: ($241.50, 2 players)
gregoire60 bets $174.40, Hero folds
Final Pot: $415.90
gregoire60 wins $413.90 ( won +$119 )
Hero lost -$120.50
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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so why are you 4betting 86o again... or raising it to begin with...
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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I'm BTN and he's 3betting light. Suppose there are better hands to play post flop when villain is likely to mess around post flop...
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Yeah bspahn thats just terrible
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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what hands would you LIKE to have in this spot to raptor bet as a bluff on two streets, since we're trying to learn something here.
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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Villain is FISHY 41/8
If I'm trying to get him off Tx, JJ-KK etc here is this a wise spot to make a small overbet?
obv I have to assume he has AA/TT here near 100% when he shoves as an aside..
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG peeeedor ($181.55)
UTG+1 bjea53 ($96.55)
CO bobfishman ($32.78)
BTN easyeasy69 ($137.17)
SB berni75 ($104.70)
BB Hero ($110.05)
Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, bjea53 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.50
Flop: ($7.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, bjea53 checks
Turn: ($7.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, bjea53 calls $6
River: ($19.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, bjea53 raises to $85.50
Final Pot: $127
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,465
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do you really think a bad player is capable of laying down a pair here?
I wouldn't try forcing him off anything..even if he can see what your're repping he'll probably still call with his JJ/QQ or whatever because you checked the flop so he's thinking omg you can't have an ace! Well, it doesn't even look like you're repping the ace to begin with.
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Check out my blog here!
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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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i suppose if i repped an ace id value bet like half to 2/3 pot on river - to a thinking player, which this aint.
bet turn, c/f river then
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Villain is a reg:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($102.35)
UTG ($29.70)
MP ($36.75)
Button ($30.80)
SB ($132.15)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10 , 7
3 folds, SB bets $2, Hero calls $1.50
Flop: ($4) J , 7 , A (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6
Turn: ($22) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls $16
River: ($54) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $37
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Villain is a reg:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($102.35)
UTG ($29.70)
MP ($36.75)
Button ($30.80)
SB ($132.15)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10  , 7
3 folds, SB bets $2, Hero calls $1.50
Flop: ($4) J  , 7  , A (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6
Turn: ($22) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls $16
River: ($54) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $37
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I think the board came out decent for this. I would just jam the river though if I was going to bet here though. It's not like the board pairing would scare any flush we had, since he never has a boat here.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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kmind- looks fine.. i don't think you need to jam the river, but I would bet slightly bigger.. thinking 40-41$ here, just nitpicking though
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bspahn
Villain is FISHY 41/8
If I'm trying to get him off Tx, JJ-KK etc here is this a wise spot to make a small overbet?
obv I have to assume he has AA/TT here near 100% when he shoves as an aside..
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG peeeedor ( $181.55)
UTG+1 bjea53 ($96.55)
CO bobfishman ( $32.78)
BTN easyeasy69 ( $137.17)
SB berni75 ( $104.70)
BB Hero ($110.05)
Pre-flop: ( $1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, bjea53 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.50
Flop:  ( $7.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, bjea53 checks
Turn:  ( $7.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, bjea53 calls $6
River:  ( $19.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, bjea53 raises to $85.50
Final Pot: $127
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no good. once he checks the flop and all these draws bink off by the river, he'll often be calling any pair. i like the idea of overbetting, but you'll have to make it 30$+
id rather just c/r the turn here and bet any river..
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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villain is a reg
this is probably a standard cbet
do you like this, if so, what rivers do we bet?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($50.65)
UTG ($101.50)
Hero (MP) ($100)
CO ($97.55)
Button ($119.05)
SB ($94.50)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K , J
1 fold, Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold
Flop: ($8) 8 , A , 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($8) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12
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Dragon Slayer
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 228
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Villian seems like a pretty good reg. 28/20 over 1k HH. Not sure what he leads into 2 players with. Could be a J could be trips, could be air.
Maybe be a good place for bluff? I thought me C/C flop and lead turn looked super strong. Maybe a C/R or river bluff? A few hands ago he C/C me on Ax7r flop then big C/R on 7 Turn
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($50.45)
CO ($65.90)
Button ($31.25)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($111.80)
Hero (UTG) ($50)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A , Q
Hero bets $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50
Flop: ($6.25) 10 , 10 , J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3
Turn: ($12.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, CO calls $7.50
River: ($27.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $21.50, Hero folds
Total pot: $27.25
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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IOPQ - Wouldn't you bet pretty much anything that connects with the board on that flop?
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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Latest Poker News
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Bbickes
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06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
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In an effort to perhaps keep players from moving to the new Revolution Network setup by the former Lock Poker, Merge Network has taken drastic steps to respond to their player base's requests to impro ...
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