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AQ facing half buyin river bet......Bluff, flush or set?

  
 
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Hornsta9
Old 03-15-2007, 12:00 AM     Post subject: AQ facing half buyin river bet......Bluff, flush or set? #1 (permalink)  
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Posts: 112
Hornsta9
No reads on villain and no stats either. I have only been at the table for 2 orbits.


Whats your play on the river here considering villain is an unknown?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($50.50)
BB ($44.85)
UTG ($123.05)
MP ($50.50)
Hero ($49.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, MP raises to $1, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP calls $3.

Flop: ($8.75) 5, Q, 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.5, MP raises to $11, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($30.75) 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($30.75) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $29.25

Final Pot: $60
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MiJ
Old 03-15-2007, 12:13 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Location: Miami
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MiJ
i think he has kq or a flush ,he doesnt have a set he would have bet the turn against an uknown ill give him the benefit on the doubt on the riv.. iwould put a nice big bet on the turn tho ...
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Benoso
Old 03-15-2007, 12:21 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I push this flop after he raises. i discount AA and KK cos he minraised preflop and cold called our 3bet.
 
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silu73
Old 03-15-2007, 12:23 AM #4 (permalink)  
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silu73
This looks like a made flush to me. Lots of idiots mini-raise the flop when they draw to a flush.
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JL
Old 03-15-2007, 12:57 AM #5 (permalink)  
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JL will become famous soon enough
 I fold here.
Easy call if 3rd doesnt fall though.

Usually if this is a bluff he will bet turn after the MR.
But because he checked the turn it looks like a flush draw very often.
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Hornsta9
Old 03-15-2007, 09:54 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Hornsta9
I have been in this position quite a bit, with donk's check-min-raising the flop. It kind of freezes me up as I don't particularly want to play for stacks with TPTK. Is this thinking -ev?

I checked behind on the turn to try and keep the pot small. Again is this a bad move at these stakes?
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silu73
Old 03-15-2007, 08:17 PM #7 (permalink)  
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One thing I have noticed at those stakes is that they usually have the goods when they bet pot OOP. Unless I have strong reads I often find a fold unless I have Top Two+
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