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AQ 3-way pot

  
 
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Harry
Old 08-14-2007, 02:19 AM     Post subject: AQ 3-way pot #1 (permalink)  
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BB is a 16/14/4 regular
CO is a 30/0.7/0.2


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SB: $578.25
BB: $1,565.00
UTG: $579.00
Hero (MP): $939.20
CO: $835.90
BTN: $920.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q A (6 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21.00, CO calls $21.00, 2 folds, BB calls $15.00

Flop: ($66) 2 T A (3 Players)
BB bets $44.00, Hero calls $44.00, CO calls $44.00

Turn: ($198) K (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $120.00


What range do you put BB on? Does anyone raise the flop?
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JeffreyGB
Old 08-14-2007, 03:08 AM #2 (permalink)  
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As a 16/14 reg, I have a hard time giving BB a lower A. With AK or TT+, I'd expect a 3bet preflop, especially given his aggression factor. I tend to give a cold-calling range of pairs below TT, AQ.

If he's bad, we can add suited connectors like JTs, but I don't really think it's there in this case. Similarly, we might be able to add AJ/AT in some cases, but I don't think this is one.

Are we tight from EP? If he's a reg, he could know this and know that our range includes more pairs than Ax hands. Thus he bets figuring we'll fold non-A hands and that there's less reason to fear loose-passive CO. This means he could have any hand in his cold-calling range. When we call (and CO calls), he knows someone hit and shuts down.

Alternatively, he can reasonably expect someone to have an A here and comfortably bet TT or 22, expecting to get action.

I think we split with him here about 1/3 the time, lose to a set about 1/3 the time, and see an underpair most of the rest of the time.

I don't see what we gain from a flop raise.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-14-2007, 03:26 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 If BB then raises all in over the top when u bet i think its a set or two pair and you should fold.

Although, at the time of the bet not knowing what he'll do next i think its a lot of random steals/weak made hand wanting to see where he stood.
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bigspenda73
Old 08-14-2007, 03:53 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 I don't think raising the flop accomplishes much
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silu73
Old 08-14-2007, 03:54 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I would proceed with caution should he raise the turn. I would almost never raise the flop. If turn is called I would not call a river bet but would check behind any card except the J.

I put him on 22/TT should he call the turn. A guy with his stats would not lead this flop with a straight draw. That's 2 pair (40%) or a set (60%).

All that IMO.
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Alexos
Old 08-14-2007, 04:03 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 BB is most likely strong here: set, two pair, AJ would be the only hand u beat, or AQ for a split. CO can have anything from a gutshot to two-pair as well by the turn considering his low AF.

Calling the flop bet is fine, since there are only gutshot draws out there.

You played it alright thought, im not sure if checking turn is horrible. Bet/fold seems fine.
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Harry
Old 08-14-2007, 04:04 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I'm obv folding if I get raised on the turn.

How does CO's overcall on the flop affect out turn decision?
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Alexos
Old 08-14-2007, 04:09 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
I'm obv folding if I get raised on the turn.

How does CO's overcall on the flop affect out turn decision?
Probably a check is in order now that I think of it. Turn card is really bad for us. He could have AK, AT, KT, JQ...try to get a cheap showdown if possible imo
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JeffreyGB
Old 08-14-2007, 04:20 AM #9 (permalink)  
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You didn't post a read on CO, so I assumed from his ridonkulous preflop stats that he was at least bad enough to have and call down with any Ax, and in many cases worse pairs. With no read, I think his impact on the situation is actually minimal.
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