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Anymore value here?

  
 
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AHiltz
Old 08-01-2007, 01:56 PM     Post subject: Anymore value here? #1 (permalink)  
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No reads at all. Been at the table for about 3 mins.

I pot the turn and then pot the river.

** Game ID 1528813642 starting - 2007-07-31 11:56:43
** Frankfurt [Hold 'em] (0.25|0.50 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- sladder12 sitting in seat 1 with $63.95
- AHiltz sitting in seat 2 with $52.45
- n1stew sitting in seat 3 with $58.59
- Nalle1978 sitting in seat 4 with $63.43
- nawab2 sitting in seat 5 with $89.44
- sixxpak sitting in seat 6 with $114.90 [Dealer]

sladder12 posted the small blind - $0.25
AHiltz posted the big blind - $0.50
** Dealing card to AHiltz:
n1stew called - $0.50
Nalle1978 folded
nawab2 folded
sixxpak folded
sladder12 folded
AHiltz checked

** Dealing the flop: :Jc:
AHiltz checked
n1stew checked

** Dealing the turn:
AHiltz bet - $1.25
n1stew called - $1.25

** Dealing the river: :Kc:
AHiltz bet - $3.75
n1stew raised - $15.00
AHiltz ????
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kevster
Old 08-01-2007, 02:11 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 We have to believe we're ahead and if he has 89 then nh and we pay him off.

Unless I'm missing something obvious, I raise to $30 and call if he pushes.
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SmackinYaUp
Old 08-01-2007, 06:29 PM #3 (permalink)  
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If this was higher stakes and against a good opponent I could see a call here ...maybe. There are so many hands he could have other than 89 that I'm gonna push in this particular spot.
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Silly String
Old 08-01-2007, 08:09 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Push that shit and watch 2 pair pay you off.
Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
 
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SmackinYaUp
Old 08-01-2007, 09:02 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Yes, anyone's raising range would be pretty wide on the river in this small pot. If I was in opponent's place, I would raise a ton of hands.

Now time for a little over-analysis:
Your only job is to estimate if his call-3bet-shoves-on-the-river-in-small-pots range is wide enough that you're going to profit in the long run vs the few times he does have 89. Its a pretty easy assumption in this hand, but something to keep in mind in future hands.
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He who does not sin goes to Heaven.
 
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AHiltz
Old 08-02-2007, 12:28 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I was not worried about 89. I quickly considered min raising and shoving and since shoving was only about $15 more, I just shoved. He folded. Thus this thread. Just wanted to see what other people have had success with.
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Silly String
Old 08-02-2007, 09:38 PM #7 (permalink)  
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This sounds an awful lot like Sklansky's bet sizing with the nuts in ToP. I guess you need to weigh how fishy the villain is and put % on his likelyhood to call your different bet sizes. A min-raise may get a call from 2pr that a push would not, but overall I like the push.

Given we have better showdown hand.
if you think villain calls min-raise 70% of the time:
additional EV = $15 *.7 = $10.50

if you think villain calls push 30% of time:
additional EV = $35 *.3 = $10.50

Break even point. I guess I like the min-raise/call a push method. Maybe Top 2 pair or a set pushes over you. Kevster wins!
Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
 
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