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Anoying river raise

  
 
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kapilalink
Old 04-16-2008, 01:34 AM     Post subject: Anoying river raise #1 (permalink)  
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Opponent is playing 29/12/1 over 113 hands
I felt somewhat lost after my bet on the river. Maybe a check call would be better? Should I have bet turn?

FullTiltPoker Game #6050002419: Table Seagrit (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:21:08 ET - 2008/04/15
Seat 1: funkyboy07 ($236.25)
Seat 2: Brandi1984 ($249.90)
Seat 3: ELMER83 ($427.70)
Seat 4: OneFive ($204.35)
Seat 5: xK1LLeRx ($288.95)
Seat 6: kapilalink ($197)
OneFive posts the small blind of $1
xK1LLeRx posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kapilalink [Jc Qc]
kapilalink has 15 seconds left to act
kapilalink has requested TIME
kapilalink raises to $7
funkyboy07 calls $7
Brandi1984 folds
ELMER83 folds
OneFive folds
xK1LLeRx folds
*** FLOP *** [Qh Jd As]
kapilalink has 15 seconds left to act
kapilalink bets $14
funkyboy07 has 15 seconds left to act
funkyboy07 calls $14
*** TURN *** [Qh Jd As] [Ac]
kapilalink checks
funkyboy07 checks
*** RIVER *** [Qh Jd As Ac] [Ad]
kapilalink has 15 seconds left to act
kapilalink bets $24
funkyboy07 has 15 seconds left to act
funkyboy07 raises to $70
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bode
Old 04-16-2008, 01:37 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 b/f turn. ugh, as played im a station and call
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will641
Old 04-16-2008, 01:52 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 i really doubt you are ever ahead. opp has Ax a lot here. i dont really see a passive guy like this ever raising for value with a J, he might do this with a Q, but even still i doubt it. now, finding the fold button is a different story. best case scenario you tie him. look at his calling range pf. hes calling here with a lot of suited aces, pocket pairs, and some suited connectors. im guessing he folds 90% + of his range on the flop. and i think this is a random retarded bluff very very rarely.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-16-2008, 04:17 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bode
b/f turn.
why? seems way too thin especially considering your kicker doesn't play.

On the river you have to call 56 to win 70 (1/2 of 140, we're guessing he's never doing this with worse than a Q), so you have to be right like 40% of the time. Considering that an A isn't that much less likely than a Q mathematically (there's 2 Q's and 1 A), and that this type of player isn't raising a Q that much, it looks like a fold.

I definitely don't blame you if you called though.
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nutsinho
Old 04-16-2008, 04:40 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 fold
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Deanglow
Old 04-16-2008, 04:57 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 The problem is you need to be good about 1/3 to make this a profitable call but you are good 1/never
 
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Schiplt
Old 04-16-2008, 05:14 AM #7 (permalink)  
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fold he has Ah6h like 100% of the time
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