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will641
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01-25-2008, 04:34 PM
Post subject: am i ever winning here?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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villain is unknown, i tend to default that he isnt very good. the only hand i can put him on this line with is AQ, because he is probably scared on flop and turn that i have KK/AA, so he calls flop and check behinds turn, an when he fills up, he throws in a half pot bet. i wanted to call this, but i think one of my biggest leaks is looking people up light in situations like this, and in general 3 bet pots where i dont have the nuts i feel like i suck at.
Edit: i forgot to mention that he could def. be bluffing AK, but i feel like if hes bluffing he is probably going to bet around $45.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
BB ($104.25)
UTG ($101.15)
MP ($98)
Button ($67.70)
Hero ($103.45)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J , J .
UTG raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, UTG calls $10.
Flop: ($29) Q , 3 , 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20.
Turn: ($69) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.
River: ($69) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $30, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $69
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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def fold river
In threebet pots, especially after someone raises UTG, your opps range is very tight. When someone calls a threebet oop there most likely hand is AQ/KQ as well.
I probably check the flop too.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Your pot odds are pretty good here, you're gettin better than 3:1 even, so you only have to be ahead like less than 25% of the time.
If there's any chance he is value betting any pair 44-TT, or even A high to get you off a chop I think based on pot odds this should be a call.
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bigslikk
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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Don't know what he has exactly, but I agree with you: his range is beating you. He could have AQ, KQ, overpairs, maybe AdKd. I don't think the villain "fears" anything on the turn, really.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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just throwing this out there, how about a block bet?
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Your pot odds are pretty good here, you're gettin better than 3:1 even, so you only have to be ahead like less than 25% of the time.
If there's any chance he is value betting any pair 44-TT, or even A high to get you off a chop I think based on pot odds this should be a call.
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sorry.. didn't notice this was a 3-bet pot.
ok I think that weighs it more towards a fold... and yah i prob c/c flop given that you're wa/wb.
Fold is prob best.. but his bet is so damn small.. I just can't fold to such small bets.. though that doesn't mean you shouldn't 
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Anyone like $55 on river? It looks like we have AK IMO
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Not enough value to fire a small bet, i'd def just c/f.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Not enough value to fire a small bet, i'd def just c/f.
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Would you agree with me that there's more value (and a much higher expectation) in betting 61 than 34?
(Though I'm still undecided on whether betting is the best option atm)
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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you might want to consider calling preflop against an UTG, unknown full stack.
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