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will641
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12-13-2008, 05:55 PM
Post subject: all in on river?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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-villain is 25/20/2.4 over about 400 hands.
-could be variance but according to his pop up stats he hasnt 4-bet yet? could be he just never is 4-betting ipo and is running bad oop
-since he is a thinking player it wouldnt be a good shove here right? he could be slowplaying a straight, which i somewhat doubt. i just dont think hes stacking off with QJ/AQ/KQ. all that being said i think i have the best hand a ton here, so is it still a shove?
No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($139)
Button ($99.55)
SB ($403.60)
Hero (BB) ($496)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , A
2 folds, SB raises to $12, Hero raises to $36, SB calls $24
Flop: ($72) 5, K , J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $44, SB calls $44
Turn: ($160) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $108, SB calls $108
River: ($376) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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yourfather
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: In your fridge
Posts: 603
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I think a shove is decent but I don't know shit. The only 10 he shows up here is Q 10s and that's not often at all. It's kind of a bluff though and I;m somewhat worried about weird JJ passive line but again Im drunk somewhat
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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I don't really think he's gonna call a shove with anything you beat, even though you're probably ahead here very often when he checks the river. You'd have to have a pretty crazy image to get called by AJ I think..
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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this ain't a "only calls when your beat". will wants to know if there is any value in betting. We know he calls with T but does he have anything else that will call. You can't put this guy squarely on QT, I don't think QT calls a three bet nor just calls a flop Cbet. No way your betting puts you on straight as well, so some 2pr's may call putting you on exactly 2pr. If you think you can fold out any hands that beat you, then shove. But I think it's a check, because I wouldn't fold any set with this line if I was him.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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tough one, i think that any reasonable player would have a hard time not leading a straight on this board (who would want to risk having a hand like yours check behind?). Other factors to consider:
- a little metagame because its an aggressive move
- He's rarely calling you with worse
- you do value town yourself sometimes against QQ
So, probably shove but i doubt it matters much (aka, this is really close)
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darys
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High Card
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 12
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he already called you 108 in the river. I would do the all in any way. I bet he got two pairs.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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i think its close and i dont mind either play
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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yeah, i ended up checking back river. he had QJcc and im 99.99% positive he never looks me up there.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 442
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If you think he has a lesser two pair, and is unlikely to look you up, then how about a little gay bet of ~$50?
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Toadstool
If you think he has a lesser two pair, and is unlikely to look you up, then how about a little gay bet of ~$50?
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thats a good idea. he probably cry calls for that.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Was gonna suggest the same thing, do we call if he shoves?
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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