all in preflop equity

If a mod wants to move this to holdem strategies, feel free. I posted this here because the SH forum gets a lot more traffic and this post applies a lot to short handed games.

Question:

Against preflop certain preflop stack off ranges, which hands fair best out of 67s, Axs (x being under 9), and 55? Note: there are small equity differences between A2s, A3s etc as well as pp's 22-TT.

My calculations

1) KK+, AKs.
a) 55 fairs best with 27.5% equity

2) QQ+, AKs, AKo
a) 55 fairs best with 35.645% equity

3) JJ+,AKs,AKo
a) 55 fairs best with 33.217% equity

4) TT+, AQ+
a) 55 fairs best with 37.1% equity

Someone tell me if this is not correct.

I think these are the two most important ranges to consider

K-K+

A-5s: 26
5-5: 19

10-10+/A-Q

A-5s: 31
5-5: 37


Besides those two ranges, the difference in equity between the two hands is usually around 4% (always in favor of small pairs).

However, the other very important variable to consider here is the timing of the 4bet semibluff. When you factor that in, it seems likely that the value of slight difference in equity would be effectively eliminated.

AK, JJ+ is the most important, as this is the normal stack off range observed in light threebetting 6 max matches.

again, 55 is the best with 33% as you said.

So why haven't i been playing back with 55 more often?

Originally Posted by Massimo

So why haven't i been playing back with 55 more often?

because you've been relying on other people's pre-conceived notions that they posted on FTR instead of doing the math yourself

nice thread

It's fun stacking regs with low pp's AI pre-flop. It usually puts them on monkey tilt.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $5/$10 - 5 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1032
Hero: $1055
Button: $1112
SB: $980
BB: $1291

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with 6 6
UTG folds, Hero raises to $30, Button raises to $110, 2 folds, Hero raises to $300, Button raises to $700, Hero raises all-in $1055, Button calls.

Flop: 7 7 3 ($2125, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2125)


Turn: 9 ($2125, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2125)


River: 5 ($2125, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $2125)


Results:
Final pot: $2125
Hero showed 6s 6c
Button showed Ad Kd

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

AK, JJ+ is the most important, as this is the normal stack off range observed in light threebetting 6 max matches.

again, 55 is the best with 33% as you said.

I would be interested to see the equity other pairs under 1010 have against this range... if its not too much trouble for someone to post them

Originally Posted by Lucky#$levin

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

AK, JJ+ is the most important, as this is the normal stack off range observed in light threebetting 6 max matches.

again, 55 is the best with 33% as you said.

I would be interested to see the equity other pairs under 1010 have against this range... if its not too much trouble for someone to post them

serious question? I can never tell if I'm getting leveled.

This is an interesting thread. I have been under the impression that I'd be much better off 4-betting Ax and be willing to call a 5-bet.. than a low pair. Maybe I should change my reasoning.

I guess the reason why I felt I would prefer 4-bet/calling with Ax is that at 2:1 we'd almost always be getting the correct odds to call (100bb's) against all villains hands except AA. However with a hand like 55 we'd be getting incorrect odds against all overpairs. I guess only the entire range matters...

hmm... time to start 4-betting low pairs against light 3-bettors?...

Originally Posted by Lucky#$levin

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

AK, JJ+ is the most important, as this is the normal stack off range observed in light threebetting 6 max matches.

again, 55 is the best with 33% as you said.

I would be interested to see the equity other pairs under 1010 have against this range... if its not too much trouble for someone to post them

It's basically the same. It goes down a little as you go below 55 b/c your straight possibilities go down and the chance of your pair getting counterfeited goes up.

serious question... i guess I need poker stove or something huh?

Another serious question is what are we to take away from this peice of info? I my games people are rarely folding preflop with any of the AK, JJ+ range... so what are some of the useful applications for this stat?

Originally Posted by Lucky#$levin

serious question... i guess I need poker stove or something huh?

Another serious question is what are we to take away from this peice of info? I my games people are rarely folding preflop with any of the AK, JJ+ range... so what are some of the useful applications for this stat?

yes, you do need poker stove, and there is almost no difference between 55 and TT against those ranges
+0.4% for TT

What do you take away from this info?
Combined with any % chance that they fold a 3bet to your 4bet you find a ton more equity being aggressive, and even if you get into a ai your only a 3:1 dog.

Lesson that should be learned:

As long as you aren't blown off your suck out equity, don't be afraid to go bonkers preflop and on the flop.

We open to 4BB
villain 3bets to 14bb.

18bb in our pot, assuming 100bb effective we have 82bb left.
EV in big blinds... % villain calls on left, % we win on top.

Ok so basically if you're going to commit yourself preflop with a 4bet, the best hand to have (out of the options Massimo provided) is 55. Right?

ax has blocker i guess

Originally Posted by gabe

ax has blocker i guess

Does pokerstove not take into account that the Ace in your hand makes it less likely that your opponent has AA or AK?

Nice. I'm soo shoving with 55 more often pre, although I wonder why 55 and not 66 if we put aces in his range and no TT.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Nice. I'm soo shoving with 55 more often pre, although I wonder why 55 and not 66 if we put aces in his range and no TT.

55-99 are basically equivalent here. And 33/44/TT are only a tiny bit worse.

well shoving a hand like 88-TT is usually a waste of 88-TT

Originally Posted by Massimo

Originally Posted by gabe

ax has blocker i guess

Does pokerstove not take into account that the Ace in your hand makes it less likely that your opponent has AA or AK?

on the "preflop" tab for villains hand in PS, you have to uncheck all the combos w/ the ace you gave youself. I dont think it does it automatically.

Originally Posted by Renton

well shoving a hand like 88-TT is usually a waste of 88-TT

Why? An overcard is going to flop an enormous amount of time, so if you're going to call a 3-bet and shove over an opp's c-bet on certain flops (like no A or K), you might as well do it with 55 as easily as TT. Conversely, no reason to 4-bet 55 more than TT imo.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by Renton

well shoving a hand like 88-TT is usually a waste of 88-TT

Why? An overcard is going to flop an enormous amount of time, so if you're going to call a 3-bet and shove over an opp's c-bet on certain flops (like no A or K), you might as well do it with 55 as easily as TT. Conversely, no reason to 4-bet 55 more than TT imo.

88-TT have more call value than 55 though.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by Renton

well shoving a hand like 88-TT is usually a waste of 88-TT

Why? An overcard is going to flop an enormous amount of time, so if you're going to call a 3-bet and shove over an opp's c-bet on certain flops (like no A or K), you might as well do it with 55 as easily as TT. Conversely, no reason to 4-bet 55 more than TT imo.

88-TT more call value than 55 though.

cant win if u fold

Originally Posted by sauce123

cant win if u fold

amen

What more can we do but put people to decisions for all their chips????

1. Axs takes away villain's possible combos of AA, AK. This is extremely important. It's not only the equity that matters, it's also HOW OFTEN they have that range. It matters, and 'stove doesn't do it.

2. I used to be a big advocator in pushing these kind of 'edges'. After getting stacked over and over again and losing so much money trying to do it, I've realized that [the vast majority of mid-high stakes] regs just don't 3-bet as light as appeared. Multitabling skews this. Really, you're wanting people to be 3-betting 10%+ of their hands and only felting 3% of their hands in typical situations where this would be useful. My opinion is that is rarer than people realize.

i just played around w/ pstove for a minute, and it does account for your cards vs villains range in an Axs vs QQ+/AKs/AKo.

yeah but what lukie and i am saying is that if you have an A blocker, he has the QQ+ AK calling range significantly less of the time, and therefore the bluff is more effective.

"significantly less often" = 10% less often last time I did the math which was a long time ago so I could be wrong

Originally Posted by mcatdog

"significantly less often" = 10% less often last time I did the math which was a long time ago so I could be wrong

So Axs is better then...

But...I think a hand like AK gets 4bet more often than a hand like TT+, so I guess you should still want to get it in more often with 55 instead of Axs...cuz his 4betting range is tilted towards AK ....

Nice posts lukie

Originally Posted by bode

i just played around w/ pstove for a minute, and it does account for your cards vs villains range in an Axs vs QQ+/AKs/AKo.

renton already covered it, but pokerstove has limitations.

say you have Ad 7d, you knock out every possible hand that villain can be holding that has either the Ad or 7d in it. Everything becomes more likely, albeit very slightly (usually). An exception to that (that being 'very slightly') might be if a nit makes a monster value bet on the river in a spot where he's very close to never bluffing on an unpaired, low board with 3 hearts, and you have the bare ace of hearts, then other hands in his very small range (e.g. Kxdd) become much, much more likely.

so you knock out 3/6 AA combos, 1/4 AKs combos, and 6/12 AKo combos. So if villain's weighted 3-bet range includes 50 card combos, including 100% of AK/AA combos, this stands to make a reasonable difference. Then again, in the context of this specific discussion, shoving garbage into that tight of a range is extremely, extremely bad.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

"significantly less often" = 10% less often last time I did the math which was a long time ago so I could be wrong

depends on the range, i find it's usually a bit more than 10%, but you could very easily come up with a reasonable range where 10% would be a good figure. especially in sng's/late stage mtt's.

10% can still be significant. significant is a relative term... 10% seems like a small number, but if it turns a slight -EV play into a slight +EV play, I would call it significant.

Originally Posted by Alexos

But...I think a hand like AK gets 4bet more often than a hand like TT+, so I guess you should still want to get it in more often with 55 instead of Axs...cuz his 4betting range is tilted towards AK ....

similar idea, but different situation. we are talking about 4-betting ourselves, not getting 4-bet on. I agree that against most taggs in typical situations are more likely to 4-bet AK than KK/AA. Hence there are times, albeit rare, where I might 3-bet a late position raise with a hand like 44, then snap call an insta shove and figure to have about 45% vs their range. Very marginal either way in that case, but variance is fun.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Nice posts lukie

thanks.

it's a subject that interests me.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by mcatdog

"significantly less often" = 10% less often last time I did the math which was a long time ago so I could be wrong

depends on the range, i find it's usually a bit more than 10%, but you could very easily come up with a reasonable range where 10% would be a good figure. especially in sng's/late stage mtt's.

10% can still be significant. significant is a relative term... 10% seems like a small number, but if it turns a slight -EV play into a slight +EV play, I would call it significant.

Yeah I hope people didn't interpret my post to signify that I thought 10% was insignificant. Like most tourney donks I'm happy to get AI as a 53/47 favorite so 10% is huge IMO.

Like you said when I did the math it was for MTT's so the all-in calling range included stuff like 77. If villain is stacking off only with QQ+ AK then it's gonna be more than 10%. I would guess it would be enough of a difference to make 4-betting A3s superior to 4-betting 55 but people should do the math themselves if they want to know for sure.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by bode

i just played around w/ pstove for a minute, and it does account for your cards vs villains range in an Axs vs QQ+/AKs/AKo.

renton already covered it, but pokerstove has limitations.

say you have Ad 7d, you knock out every possible hand that villain can be holding that has either the Ad or 7d in it. Everything becomes more likely, albeit very slightly (usually). An exception to that (that being 'very slightly') might be if a nit makes a monster value bet on the river in a spot where he's very close to never bluffing on an unpaired, low board with 3 hearts, and you have the bare ace of hearts, then other hands in his very small range (e.g. Kxdd) become much, much more likely.

so you knock out 3/6 AA combos, 1/4 AKs combos, and 6/12 AKo combos. So if villain's weighted 3-bet range includes 50 card combos, including 100% of AK/AA combos, this stands to make a reasonable difference. Then again, in the context of this specific discussion, shoving garbage into that tight of a range is extremely, extremely bad.

Maybe i didn't get you, but with us having Ad7d, doesn't that leave 9 combo's of AKo?

ahhh mcat

this thread brings back memories of the good old days