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AA - value bluff shove on river

  
 
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griffey24
Old 09-10-2008, 04:40 PM     Post subject: AA - value bluff shove on river #1 (permalink)  
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 -Villain in this hand has been pretty tight for the most part
-On a different table he's pretty much letting me steal all of his BB's when it folds to my SB's
-He hasn't called that many of my preflop raises on this table and hasn't done anything too crazy. his 3-bet % is very low
-on the turn, I was going for the c/r but missed it, though agains this opponent I should have expected a check through and just bet
-on the river, I really have zero zero clue a) what hand is raising me b) what hand is raising me so small (Q9?.. thats it?)
-all I know on the river is that I MAY be ahead, but also that the nuts is in my range but not at all in his range
-good shove? bad? spewfest?


$2/$5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($839.00)
UTG+1 ($900.12)
CO ($444.50)
BTN ($524.20)
SB ($600.00)
BB ($774.50)

Pre-flop: ($7, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $15, UTG+1 calls $15, 2 folds, SB calls $13, 1 fold

Flop: ($50, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $35, UTG+1 calls $35, SB folds

Turn: ($120, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($120, 2 players)
Hero bets $75, UTG+1 raises to $155, Hero raises to $789
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kmind
Old 09-10-2008, 05:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I don't understand the turn c/r unless you have a bad image?
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griffey24
Old 09-10-2008, 06:02 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
I don't understand the turn c/r unless you have a bad image?
Yah c/r turn here is bad, since there are no draws even that he would think I'm repping.

Though yah in general, I'm pretty sure I must be one of the more spewy/bluffy regs (not a good thing!).. so I can't see how my image would ever be that good.
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Deanglow
Old 09-10-2008, 06:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 My heart screams yes but his raise size screams no
 
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The_OG_Rocco
Old 09-10-2008, 06:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
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overpost....sorry.
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griffey24
Old 09-10-2008, 06:25 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
My heart screams yes but his raise says screams no
What can he have that only calls flop, checks turn and then raises this river so small? It feels like really thin value to me...

Its just one of those spots where I think my AA is good sometimes, but even the times its not, it's definitely a hard call for him.

Maybe he even has a floated KQ/AQ here sometimes, going for thin value? no clue...
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The_OG_Rocco
Old 09-10-2008, 06:29 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Something tells me that Villain probably has J/10 or a set of pretty ladies. He seems to be playing solid/tight poker. He also has a large stack. For these reasons alone, you should be wary.
I would have preferred a check on the river to try and see his hand and minimize your losses. If he bets out a reasonable amount then you could smooth call it.
I think that shoving was / is wreckless in this situation.
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griffey24
Old 09-10-2008, 06:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_OG_Rocco
Something tells me that Villain probably has J/10 or at least a set.
I think he never ever has JT here, cause JT has zero piece of this board on the flop, unless he's on a super mega float. I won't discount a set, a set is possible, but I think unlikely given flop flat and turn check.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_OG_Rocco
Something tells me that Villain probably has J/10 or at least a set.
I would have preferred a check on the river to try and see his hand and minimize your losses. If he bets out a reasonable amount then you could smooth call it. I think that shoving was / is wreckless in this situation.
We have aces... why are we trying to minimize our losses, instead of maximizing our gains? We're ahead on this river, given action, like 90+% I'd imagine.

The shove may be wreckless though.. that's what I'm trying to figure out
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The_OG_Rocco
Old 09-10-2008, 06:37 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_OG_Rocco
Something tells me that Villain probably has J/10 or at least a set.
I think he never ever has JT here, cause JT has zero piece of this board on the flop, unless he's on a super mega float. I won't discount a set, a set is possible, but I think unlikely given flop flat and turn check.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_OG_Rocco
Something tells me that Villain probably has J/10 or at least a set.
I would have preferred a check on the river to try and see his hand and minimize your losses. If he bets out a reasonable amount then you could smooth call it. I think that shoving was / is wreckless in this situation.
We have aces... why are we trying to minimize our losses, instead of maximizing our gains? We're ahead on this river, given action, like 90+% I'd imagine.
The shove may be wreckless though.. that's what I'm trying to figure out
I am not talking about pre flop or post turn, I am talking about the river. Shoving all in on the river is very wreckless in this situation i.m.o.
Most likely, you are right about him not having J/10 after I re-read everything, but pocket Q's for the set is VERY likely i.m.o.
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Old 09-10-2008, 08:25 PM #10 (permalink)  
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no worse hand can call except for kings
but kings would put in a raise on the flop or a bet on the turn

it's like, sure, 90% of the time you'll get a fold
10% of the time you lose your stack...
so...
why not just call river?

he's not calling with worse
he might be raising on the river with AQo, but he's going to fold it to your huge river raise
but if he has QQ he's getting the best of it

if he has a set of 9s you're just rewarding him for slowplaying like a fish
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Marshall28
Old 09-10-2008, 08:38 PM #11 (permalink)  
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id have to say i think it's definitely spewy.

though, whoever is saying he is gonna show up w/ QQ or something like JT has no idea what they are talking about.

given how passive you've said this guy is, i do expect him to show up w/ something like 22/44/99/Q9, 99/Q9 more often probly than the others.

also given how passive he is, it's unlikely he is the type of player that is going to make a thin value raise, passive players are just too scared to do that and want to get to showdown generally.

i think the river is a call, although, if you felt very sure that he had something worse, i like a click it back much better than just a jam ... it will induce spazzy plays, so u can snap if he sticks it in, and it will also get u a little more value out of hands that he *might* have been betting thinly for value with.
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Genitruc
Old 09-10-2008, 09:04 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point
 he can have a set here
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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