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AA hand...

  
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 05-20-2007, 03:14 AM     Post subject: AA hand... #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 21/16 over 136 hands. He hasn't showed down before this hand, but he has been aggressive. I thought that even though this was a dry board the river seemed like a possible bluff because there are only a few hands that like the J. Otherwise, he could possibly value bet KQ or AK here... I probably shouldn't have checked the turn though.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($220)
BB ($200)
UTG ($97.85)
MP ($197)
Hero ($280.65)
Button ($188)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) 3, T, K (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12.

Turn: ($43) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $30, Hero calls $30.

River: ($103) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $72, Hero calls $72.

Final Pot: $247
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sauce123
Old 05-20-2007, 04:31 AM #2 (permalink)  
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max- i think when u run bad u tend to chronically reverse tilt. This seems like one of those times as the past few hands that ive looked at that u have posted seemed to be u taking sub optimal passive lines and wanting to fold on the river.

first, the river definitely isnt close to a fold. Second, the jack is one of the worst cards in the deck for you. Thats because on the flop his range is made up of only a few hands: KQ, KJ, KT, TT, 33, QJ, AQ, AJ, AT, JT, T9 is a pretty accurate range (and occasional floats but this isnt a prime floating flop)

So your worst two turn cards are a queen and jack judging from this range. The good news about a jack is that a few of the hands which were folding to a strong turn bet r now calling one as they have picked up more outs- AT (gutty), QJ (open ended), AJ, o yea and AQ aka teh nuts. KQ also got stronger. T9 may call another bet but prolly shouldnt. KJ JT pulled ahead.

At this point I would still bet for value/info, as we are folding to a raise against this range but still r likely ahead from a lot of the hands that are calling. But you check which is a small mistake. When he bets 30 we gain little info as just about his whole range thinks its ahead of ur hand now that u underrepped it by checking. The J on the river is also a shitty card as now we beat even less, but I think you are still ahead enough to make a call here as KQ KT are just so likely and ur hand is so underrepped he could conceivably show up with air here. Though I dont think a fold would be terrible.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 05-20-2007, 04:49 AM     Post subject: Re: AA hand... #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
I probably shouldn't have checked the turn though.
nope.
 
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minSim
Old 05-20-2007, 02:03 PM #4 (permalink)  
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very VERY nice post sauce.
Is this the thought process you go through every hand?
And has it become some kind of second nature for you? Or do you have to actually put effort in it to do it every hand again? How was that when you were playing at the stages of let's say 100NL?
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sauce123
Old 05-20-2007, 08:29 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minSim
very VERY nice post sauce.
Is this the thought process you go through every hand?
And has it become some kind of second nature for you? Or do you have to actually put effort in it to do it every hand again? How was that when you were playing at the stages of let's say 100NL?
Yea i definitely go through a similar thought process on every hand of any importance and it takes a certain amount of effort. i mean at any point in a hand i may not be saying in my mind every hand in his range (tho I do this occasionally) but if someone asked me i could pretty instantly spit one out. its the same at 100NL except in general people's ranges are smaller and so its easier to assign them one, also many players are over aggro so when you check you can assign them a bluffing percent of like 50%. I actually remember putting a weird bluff in the range of anyone at any time at 100NL which i assigned like a 10% probability, just because so much weird shit would happen.
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Jupit3r
Old 05-21-2007, 07:38 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I bet $5 bucks sauce is gonna play at high stakes poker in five years with teh pros.
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