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99 w/ str8 draw vs. overpair

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r8ed

02-16-2006, 05:15 AM Post subject: 99 w/ str8 draw vs. overpair

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 1,524

100NL, no real read on villain.
I have 99 and raise 4BB. Villain raises another 4BB but our stacks are both over 100, so I call. Flop comes out: 678 w/ two clubs. He bets 1/2 pot. I reraise 3x. He pushes. I put him on JJ+ based on preflop and flop play.

Call?

Twodimes says fold:
pokenum -h jd js - 9d 9s -- 6c 7d 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c 6c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jd 607 61.31 375 37.88 8 0.81 0.617
9s 9d 375 37.88 607 61.31 8 0.81 0.383

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Seasider

02-16-2006, 11:47 AM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Bangor UK

Posts: 563

I hate playing these medium overpairs into aggression. His $4 into the $8 flop could be AK AQ etc. So I like your re-raise, that would be my standard line too. However I am looking to take down the pot there generally if they come back your pair is counterfitted. To me his push looks like QQ+ scared of the draw. He probably has AA or KK. I would fold this here, after all why were you raising, I assume not to take your stack to the felt but rather for information/build pot? He has provided this and it's time to use it. The two-dimes stats confirm this especially with your reads.

Also I like his play caus I can note 'wont escape AA post' in his notes and look for the set any other time we play! I don't play $100 tho so maby my view is off.

alias2211

02-16-2006, 02:28 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: U, S and A!!!

Posts: 469

r8ed-

as played, fold.

you might have just called that 1/2 flop bet, you had almost right odds to do it, and implied odds w/ your read of JJ+ make calling for more cheap cards to make your hand best play.

i'll assume neither of you were SB or BB:

preflop:

.50 SB
+ 1 BB
+ 4 your bet
+ 8 his raise
+ 4 your call
----
flop pot size = $17.50 less rake

flop:

8-9 BB his lead out

scenario here would be: do i call $9 for a ~40% chance at winning a $25 pot?

40% of 25 is $10

implied odds of his demonstrated interest in the hand and stack size are the real story of this situation, though.

i don't like your min raise on the flop because you knew you were beat at that point and a minraise wasn't going to get a higher PP to fold. you paid for information you already had, and you just gave him room to go over the top on you. i think a better line is to cold call that flop bet, and then if you miss and are feeling frisky you can let him lead out again and then go over the top of HIM. let him feel beat, not you! you still have plenty of outs for this 'mistake' to work in your favor.

In answer to your question... it depends...
alias2211.com poker

r8ed

02-16-2006, 03:05 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 1,524

I don't have the HH in front of me, but I think there was another palyer in the hand left to act after me that folded to my reraise. Regardless, a call is the correct move if I had known he was going to push. Him betting 1/2 pot on a board with str8 potential led me to believe he had AK possibly because he wasn't protecting a made hand. So I reraised to see if he was still happy with his hand. He told me JJ+ by pushing. A call is probably still the best play. I should have taken the 1/2pot bet to see the turn and go from there. I put myself in a semi-difficult spot.

zenbitz

02-16-2006, 11:38 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Posts: 2,911

But will AK call your re-raise? If he won't then calling is clearly the best move, right?
If you don't have 99 with the OESD, then the re-raise to drive out overcards is a much, much better move.

3rd guy in probably just gives you better pot odds when he calls, BUT you got to be worried about 2 clubs taking your straight outs.

If you flat call, he will probably put you on a club draw, rather than a 9.

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99 w/ str8 draw vs. overpair

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