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98s UTG deep 50NL

  
 
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Parasurama
Old 07-21-2009, 03:41 AM     Post subject: 98s UTG deep 50NL #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 20/13/3b of 2.8%/fold to cb of 35% over 600 hands. I haven't seen him take this line until now.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($123.80)
MP ($53.95)
CO ($69.25)
Button ($21.30)
SB ($76.15)
BB ($116.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 9
Hero bets $2, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 4, 9, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.35, BB calls $3.35

Turn: ($10.95) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.45, BB raises to $19, Hero ?
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meeloche
Old 07-21-2009, 03:47 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Well I don't think I can fold yet but I'm likely going to on a bunch of rivers.



 
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kmind
Old 07-21-2009, 04:00 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Yeah seems like a call but idk about river. It's like he has KsQs/KsJs/AsKs or something. He can only have 1 combo of 99/88 and 44 would more than likely raise flop. It'd be weird for a draw to raise on the turn as opposed to flop. With 35% fold to cbet can he have any other K in his range that he just floated on the flop?
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Parasurama
Old 07-21-2009, 04:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Yeah he could have a K floating the flop but I don't see him raising the turn with a bare top pair for value and he definitely wouldn't do it as a bluff.

Ok, say we call and he fires $35 on the river into $49. What do we do on:

1) 3
2) J
3) 6
4) 4
5) 8
6) 8
7) A
8) A
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Marshall28
Old 07-21-2009, 06:17 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I'd raise to 45 and call off a shove, I think it's a hand like KQss much more often than K9 flatting out of the blinds.
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bspahn
Old 07-21-2009, 06:25 AM #6 (permalink)  
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seems kinda belluga ish

for value on the turn im really only seeing 444 or AK I guess, i think KK/AA he 3bets pre

the hands that have use beat on the turn I think will be scared of a river flush (his 2pr/set hands) card... if he bets big on a river spade do you think its more likely to be a bluff?

calling turn imo is the only option.
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Parasurama
Old 07-21-2009, 02:48 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall28
I'd raise to 45 and call off a shove, I think it's a hand like KQss much more often than K9 flatting out of the blinds.
I'd stack off all day 100bb deep but 230bb deep you're still 3betting and calling it off on this turn?
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WillburForce
Old 07-21-2009, 03:13 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 anyone like a fishtastic shove?
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Old 07-21-2009, 04:21 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by WillburForce
anyone like a fishtastic shove?
villain has set all day and he's happy your AK hit or something
I mean it's like yeah he's sometimes trying to rep a king or raising a king but he's not going to bet river if he doesn't have the nuts unless he's really spewy
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pocketfours
Old 07-21-2009, 05:59 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshall28
I'd raise to 45 and call off a shove, I think it's a hand like KQss much more often than K9 flatting out of the blinds.
This would be my plan here also.
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bspahn
Old 07-21-2009, 06:16 PM #11 (permalink)  
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so we're 64/36 against Kx of spades types hands and absolutely crushed by everything else (except AA/AK ?)
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Silly String
Old 07-21-2009, 07:01 PM #12 (permalink)  
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You say everything else, like there's a ton of hands that beat hero's holding? I count 6 combos of 44 & KK, then 2 combos of 99/88 & a couple of discounted combos of K9/K8s. We are ahead of everything else.
If I could find something we beat I would be all-in already. I could see this being 8 combos of KQ/KJs so F-it I'm pushing afterall you baited him with that tiny ass turn bet.
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Parasurama
Old 07-21-2009, 07:31 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I wish I had a river to show you guys but I tanked and folded.

I think the people that are saying 3b and call it off are used to much more aggressive games where people take very strong lines with draws. Not that some people at 50NL wouldn't take this line with a draw I just have no reason to believe this particular villain would.

I folded because:

-we're deep
-my hand is not underrepped at all
-my hand has good but not great equity against the hands in his range that it beats
-my hand has little to no equity against the hands in his range that it doesn't beat

The argument for calling as I see it:

-there are very few combos of sets due to our having two pair
-the turn K pairs much of his flop drawing range
-I bet smallish on the turn and may have induced
-His raise size is small (indicative of a draw) and gives us a great price

I should have focused on his bet size and made the call but I was worried about getting coolered for my whole stack. I've been trying as hard as I can to just fold in marginal situations because there are many more +++EV situations I can find.

Raising is interesting and it may be correct due to the (I think) large number of draws in his range. Considering he probably doesn't follow through on the river if I flat I still think calling is better.

So call>raise>fold?
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