50NL Marginal hand facing river overshove

What does it mean?!

Villain is 33/13/5 after 33 hands. How many times is this a bluff without further reads on villain? The only hands that do this seem like bluffs, since sets would value town me, unless they figured me for the flopped flush?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($53.80)
SB ($50.80)
BB ($49.65)
UTG ($46.75)
Hero ($49.25)
CO ($20.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K.
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 3 folds, BB raises to $6, UTG folds, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($12.75) A, 4, J (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($28.75) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($28.75) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $35.65 (All-In)

i raise the flop with the nuts

Yea I know. I don't know why I didn't... But as played..

Raising the flop would be pretty retarded here.

call. his pre flop range is prob. (99+,AQs+,AKo) with the possibility of a 9h or higher..... its +EV for him to bet the flop considering 2 of the hearts that beat a 9 are already on the board, not to mention if he's holding the Qh there's only 1 heart that beats it. By the river, the only hand that improved against you is 99.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.333% 23.33% 10.00% 7 3.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 66.667% 56.67% 10.00% 17 3.00 { AdKh }

why is raising the flop bad? He's only beat by 2 hands in opp. range. Raising or calling is +EV. It just depends on hero's ability to play later streets which choice is the more +

Originally Posted by frosst

why is raising the flop bad? He's only beat by 2 hands in opp. range. Raising or calling is +EV. It just depends on hero's ability to play later streets which choice is the more +

Raising is the line that wins the least money when we are ahead and loses the most money when we are behind. The only hands we are ahead of we are way ahead of, and we only have 30% equity against a set.

If we are ahead 90% of the time but a bet only gets called the 10% of the time we are beat, is a bet +ev?

only hand that we beat that gets it in on the flop is AQ with the