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50NL, KQs deeeeeep

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TonyB73

08-04-2009, 11:03 AM Post subject: 50NL, KQs deeeeeep

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2008

Posts: 414

I have only 40 hands on villain - not enough for meaningful stats - but fwiw he's playing roughly 24/10. He has already flatted my raises IP a couple of times, and this is the second time he has 3bet IP. He has shown an ability to fold and I haven't seen anything overly spewy post-flop.

iPoker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - iPoker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($91.35)
CO ($200.78)
Button ($162.92)
SB ($34.10)
BB ($120.81)
UTG ($160.62)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K

, Q

1 fold, Hero bets $1.75, 1 fold, Button raises to $6, SB calls $5.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($18.50) 4

, J

, 10

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $15, 1 fold, Hero raises to $85.35 (All-In) ...

So preflop I put him on probably JJ+/AK/AQ, and I thought that although a lot of that range dominates me, it would be worth another $3.75 to see if I could flop a flush or straight. In a 3bet pot with SB coming along as well, I had implied odds out the wazoo. So I figure I'll call, and if I don't get a flush or straight, or a draw to one, I'm gone.

So I flops an open-ender and a backdoor flush draw. The cbet doesn't tell me anything - I think he cbets with his whole range here. I think he either has an overpair, a set or a gutshot, so my draw is likely to be good if I hit and I am getting odds to call.

But if I'm right about his range then with all the blockers in my hand and on the board, he has AK/AQ more than 50% of the time, and I think he probably auto-folds those hands to a raise here. Even if I give him the worst possible range for me here - TT+/AK - he still has AK about a third of the time, which is a good amount of FE. So my thinking was that I can credibly rep JJ/TT/44 and take down a $33 pot a third of the time, and the rest of the time I still have north of 30% equity in a $180 pot. Seemed like a good spot for a semi-bluff.

I could have raised smaller, but I thought that any raise is pot-committing, and if I shove I might be more likely to get a fold out of something like QQ. In retrospect, without extra fold equity, risking this much could be a pretty high price to pay for the equity I have (on my maths its pretty marginal).

Is this pure spew? If so, how should I have played it?

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bode

08-04-2009, 11:50 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2006

Location: slow motion

Posts: 4,270

bode is an unknown quantity at this point

preflop call is pretty spewtastic even with an overcaller.

Quote:

eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.

08-04-2009, 06:11 PM

#3 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

probably a fold pre
I would flat the flop this deep and I'm not even going broke on K or Q turn

Galapogos

08-04-2009, 07:12 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: The Loser's Lounge

Posts: 2,322

This man is not looking to fold post flop. Look at his betsize, look at the shortstack, look at the board.

Fold preflop too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sauce123

I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.

08-04-2009, 08:34 PM

#5 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

foldpre

Vi-Zer0Skill

08-04-2009, 08:35 PM

#6 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

BTN most likely has a wider raising range than AQ/JJ+ if he has already 3bet twice before this hand, in a 40 hand sample.

BTN's flop cbet definitely tells you something... there is a shortstack he just willingly committed himself against in a 3way 3bet pot. he might do this with AK some of the time, but generally he would check behind worse than a pair of Jacks in this situation. you don't have much fold equity versus his cbet range.

if the SB isn't a complete moron, his coldcall range IS something like JJ+. against his range your hand is ruined by reverse implied odds! when he has JJ and you flop a K/Q, he isn't putting more money in. when he has AA and you flop a K/Q, ur toast.

however if the SB is a complete moron or something close to that, 4betting preflop is certainly superior to calling.

-you can get all in versus the SB with decent equity.
-your 4bet will be percieved as being stronger than usual by BTN, because SB is in the pot. he won't continue with worse than QQ+/AK, and he folds QQ/AK at least some of the time. you have at least 66% fold equity vs. BTN, maybe even as high as 80%.

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