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50NL, 99 hits set but river brings flushy...

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badgers

01-08-2008, 05:56 PM Post subject: 50NL, 99 hits set but river brings flushy...

#1 (permalink)

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Villain is 25/18/3 over 100 hands. Should I be 4-betting here preflop?

How about the flop? Is calling here OK OOP?

On the turn, villain thought for a long time before checking behind (not playing on any of my other tables) This made me really think he had the flush when the river card came... AA/KK just calls here right.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button ($9.95)
Hero ($83.80)
BB ($85.95)
UTG ($129.80)
MP ($39.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with

.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($12)

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($26)

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks.

River: ($26)

(2 players)
Hero bets $18, BB raises to $40, Hero.....

Final Pot: $62

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Pelion

01-08-2008, 06:29 PM

#2 (permalink)

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how loose does he 3bet? This is probably a fold preflop. Wow river sucks. It really does look like he has the nuts here even though you are getting good pot odds. I dont think he ever has AA/KK here. The only thing you really beat is some kind of sick bluff with AKo and i highly doubt hes doing that 20% of the time even though your line is so weak. In the heat of it I probably make a pot odds call but I think a puke fold is correct.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

Deanglow

01-08-2008, 07:41 PM

#3 (permalink)

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4betting preflop is not a good idea with these stacks.

If this were any other situation except blind v blind or BUvB, I would fold, but I just can't do it.

minSim

01-09-2008, 07:14 AM

#4 (permalink)

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c/c flop is ok.

I can't fold river, this is AA, KK or a bluffing AK often enough imo.

Muzzard

01-09-2008, 10:15 AM

#5 (permalink)

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AA/KK/AKs would usually just fire the turn as well.

I can't discount QQ, but I'd say you're ahead here more often than not and with pot odds I'd say this is a call.

Da GOAT

01-09-2008, 11:07 AM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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eh Pelion your folding preflop to a 3bet here????

Its a crap spot but id expect to be behind here, your hand is now simply a bluff catcher.

i put opp on either JT, AKs or air. you need to be right 35% of the time to profit (call 22 into 62 pot). i dont think he will bluff enough to profit and im really considering his timing tell on turn to be him thinking ''ok i wanna bet turn but ill take a free card to hit my flush''

Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.

chris_k14

01-09-2008, 12:50 PM

#7 (permalink)

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I would call river getting good odds and with a reraise pre with his stats more like kk, aa. If he's reraised pre with club cards he's been fortunate.

WildBobAA

01-09-2008, 12:51 PM

#8 (permalink)

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I'm paying him off, but yeah, he probably has the flush if he's not an idiot.

And Pelion, you're folding 99 preflop here BvB vs a 3-bet? wtf?

bode

01-09-2008, 01:34 PM

#9 (permalink)

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bode is an unknown quantity at this point

i c/c here since our hand cant really stand a c/r. and lol pelion at folding pre.

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badgers

01-09-2008, 01:46 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bode

i c/c here since our hand cant really stand a c/r. and lol pelion at folding pre.

I was just thinking this... AA/KK/AQ will all value bet this river, AK may bluff etc. I think that is the better line, though I got excited when I hit my set and felt I had to bet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

This is pretty much exactly what I thought. I don't usually put much faith in timing tells at these stakes, but I just thought it was interesting and worth putting in the OP.

As played I folded and immediately quit all tables due to forthcoming insta-tilt.

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Irisheyes

01-09-2008, 02:13 PM

#11 (permalink)

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hand is fine now call

will641

01-09-2008, 04:57 PM

#12 (permalink)

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yeah i dont understand ppl wanting to fold this? and pelion, not only do we have a good hand and possibly ahead in a BvB situation, at the very least we have monstrous set odds. did you notice the stacks? they're like 175BB deep.

Cash Rules Everything Around Me.

Pelion

01-09-2008, 05:38 PM

#13 (permalink)

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i didnt notice stack sizes pre for some reason. I do call this and play poker post flop.

Having said that there are alot of arguments against calling. BvB makes this hand worse for us because it makes his 3 betting range wider which reduces our implied odds when we catch. Hes probably 3 betting lots of pairs and high offsuit cards here and maybe suited connectors too so our implied odds are by no means "huge". Id guess we very rarely stack him when we set up. That means calling planning to sethunt is probably -----EV. We are also out of position so we are going to really struggle to play 1 pair well. Last of all we are deep enough that our one pair hands are going to be even shittier to play than usual, but not yet deep enough for pure sethunting to be profitable if he stacks off with overpairs every time.

So yea I do call this because we are deep, but I think its a fold for 100bbs and I don't think a fold preflop is LOL bad here if hes any good..

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

jyms

01-09-2008, 05:54 PM

#14 (permalink)

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With a standard 15x rule it's a call. But can we all agree on that the problem is in a BvB and a thinking opp. can we still use 15x? I think if we even up it to 20x, which is huge, we still may have the odds. Calling is Ok, since we are deep.I agree with Pel that I may fold this at >100BB's but I am a nit too. I cna't get my head around what hands he has here that we stack, other than AA, KK, even AQ, may not stack off on this flop.

So even arguing about set odds, and agreeing or not, does that allow us to continue in the hand? What other reasons do we have to get involved in a 3 bet pot, BvB, and OOP?

Now comes down to him saying I have the flush, do you believe him? FWIW, I think the flush is more believable than AA, KK.

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jyms

01-09-2008, 06:01 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SBRugby

Generally, just avoid the good players. When getting re-raised or 3bet, find better spots.

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WildBobAA

01-09-2008, 06:42 PM

#16 (permalink)

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It's not like we're calling for set value only...

Pelion

01-09-2008, 07:13 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Actually thinking about this more and im really starting to hate calling. It would really help to know how wide his 3bet range is here but Ill explain my objections to set hunting with estimates.

He looks aggressive but not psycho. Im assuming we have a TAGGy sort of image so we are around between 15/10 and 20/15. We are probably attempting to steal around 25-30% of blinds, and with his aggressive tendencies he is probably reraising with something like 10-15% of hands in a BvB.

(77+/ JTs+/ATo+/A8s+ is 10%. He might have a wider range. He probably doesn't have a tighter range.) Sadly he doesnt look like a psycho. If we hit the flop we are going to get a cbet out of him almost every time but we probably arent stacking him with less than TPGK or an overpair. Also for 175bbs deep we wont necessarily stack him when he has something like a JJ or TT overpair, or when he has AJ on an A high flop. If we just call the flop cbet and look to raise the turn then he has 3 cards to hit a decent hand. Assuming he always stacks off with TPTK or an overpair the percentages of boards he will stack off on is roughly

AA - 100%, KK- 75%, QQ - 66%, JJ - 50%, AK 33%, AQ, 25% (ish)

Thats an average of about half the time when he has one of these top pair type hands. AA-JJ/AQ-AK is the top 4% of hands so he will stack off with the top 2% of hands on average. Since he is reraising about 10% of hands, he is going to be stacking off around 1/5 of the time on the flop *if* we flop a set (plus some times when he flops a straight draw/ flush draw/ straight/flush/higher set).

But we only flop a set about 10% of the time so when we call preflop we only expect to stack him about 1/50 of the time. Thats not great knews when we are only getting 20:1 for his stack. We do win his cbet if he misses and we hit but that isn't enough to make up for it.

So we can't profitably sethunt and fold when we miss. That leaves us playing a probable underpair hand out of position against a TAGgy opponent in a medium-big pot with deep stacks when we are probably only just better than a coinflip against his 3bet range, and i don't really like the sound of that.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

Pelion

01-09-2008, 07:18 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

It's not like we're calling for set value only...

it has been suggested

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

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