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Irisheyes
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03-29-2008, 11:05 AM
Post subject: 500NL too thin?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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He's a reg who runs 24/6/3. Only folds to flop cbets 40% of the time though. Such a weird style of play.
$2.5/$5 No Limit Holdem
3 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
BTN ($983.95)
SB ($482.40)
Hero ($485.00)
Pre-flop: ($7.5, 3 players) Hero is BB  
1 fold, SB calls $2.5, Hero raises to $20, SB calls $15
Flop:    ($45, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, SB calls $26
Turn:  ($97, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $65, SB calls $65
River:  ($227, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $180, SB raises to $371.4, Hero folds
Final Pot: $969.8
SB wins $580 ( won +$97.6 )
Hero lost -$291.00
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The Odds God
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 252
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standard
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The secret to success in poker is to rig the odds in your favor.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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It sucks to put more than half your stack in and then fold, but what else can you do?
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Fnord
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03-29-2008, 01:34 PM
Post subject: Re: 500NL too thin?
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#4 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Such a weird style of play.
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As a rule, avoid big money bet/fold lines against erratic players.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I like a check on the river here, or maybe a smaller value bet. I don't see him calling that river bet with much worse than you have and I don't see him folding AJ or better, so the bet seems undesirable to me.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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since the board is about as dry as it gets, cant we check back the river? i dont see what villains calling with that we beat.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Do you have any fold to river bet stats?
Have you seen him c/r much before?
If he's not calling many rivers, and has a tendancy to c/r then a check through is ok here. If he calls a lot of barrels I think a weaker bet here can get looked up lighter.
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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I'm not so sure I like the small river bet line because I think if he checkraises a small bet then I'm in a tougher spot than I am now. Although in saying that, whatever about check raising monsters or air I doubt this guy has the cop on to turn something like JT into a bluff on the river which adds favour to a small river b/f.
The reason I bet pretty big is because I was trying to make my hand look like triple barrelled overcards and I was hoping he'd make a hero call. I don't know If I could ever be sure whether this has a higher expectation than a smaller bet which is obviously for value but which also offers him attractive pot odds.
I didn't have a fold to river stat at the time and I couldn't think of a time when he had checkraised in the past. I just checked my database though and found a hand where he checkraised the river with a back door flush.
Looking at his stats now though he folds to flop bet 39% of the time and folds to turn bets 54% of the time and river bets 20% of the time. So basically my strat for this guy is to double barrel the shit out of him and give up on the river a ton until he adjusts. I'm also not going to go for such thin river value because it looks like he folds all his marginals on the turn. Sound good?
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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i dont think this is thin at all
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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yeah seems fine. flop cbet is a little small though isnt it?
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Oh ya. Thats either a misclick or a messed up HH. I probably ment 36.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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03-29-2008, 09:02 PM
Post subject: Re: 500NL too thin?
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#12 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Such a weird style of play.
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As a rule, avoid big money bet/fold lines against erratic players. |
great advice
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