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acesfullokings
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09-09-2007, 09:21 AM
Post subject: 50 NL AK facing 4 bet shove
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 198
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What to do, its my second hand at the table
Noble Poker Bingara (No DP) 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker
saw flop | saw showdown
Button ($49.25)
SB Hero ($49.50)
BB ($53.30)
UTG ($17.43)
UTG+1 UTG+1 ($50.60)
Preflop: Hero is in the SB with A  K  UTG calls 0.50, UTG+1 raises to 2, 1 fold, Hero raises to 7, 2 folds, UTG+1 moves all-in for 48.60, Hero ??
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I started a new job so don't play much ATM, just FTP mini grind
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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fold
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Easy fold, at these stakes people aren't often 4-bet shoving less than AA/KK. You could throw in some more hands if you had history or stats, but without them I'm always folding this here
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acesfullokings
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 198
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How's the size of the 3 bet?
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I started a new job so don't play much ATM, just FTP mini grind
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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fine.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Yeah, a fold is cool here.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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You only have $7 invested and you're flipping or way behind every time fold.
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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fold.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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snap fold
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
You only have $7 invested
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So not the point
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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It's totally the point in conjunction with the rest of his sentence! Shame on you for manipulating his quote 
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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I really isnt. Dead money (pot odds) is important. The amount of it we have invested isnt. If there were antes involved then this could become a call with reasonably short stacks even though we would still have so little invested.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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the point isn't the money in the pot, it's the range of hands UTG+1 is capable of doing this with.
In reality I'd expect this to be AK/JJ/QQ a lot and AA/KK very little.
I'm leaning towards fold but call wouldn't be that bad.
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2_Thumbs_Up
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 271
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Actually, against QQ/JJ a call would be so marginal that the rake probably makes it -ev. I do think this is AK a lot though. But it doesn't have to be AA/KK often to really screw us over.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
the point isn't the money in the pot, it's the range of hands UTG+1 is capable of doing this with.
In reality I'd expect this to be AK/JJ/QQ a lot and AA/KK very little.
I'm leaning towards fold but call wouldn't be that bad.
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vs AK/JJ/QQ we break even. add KK, we're a slight dog. add AA, we're owned.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.492% 24.65% 18.84% 116502500 89038110.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.508% 37.67% 18.84% 178017184 89038110.00 { AdAh, AhAs, KcKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
/thread
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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I really think this is a spew call against an unknown at these stakes. We are high enough to not have too many people stacking off with total rubbish, but low enough that people arent adapting to light 3betters by opening up 4 bets.
Enough people at these stakes have a 4bet range of AA/KK that calling here really sucks imo.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.492% 24.65% 18.84% 116502500 89038110.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.508% 37.67% 18.84% 178017184 89038110.00 { AdAh, AhAs, KcKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
/thread
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1). You are missing 2 combinations of A-A/K-K.
2). I doubt it's standard at 50NL for J-J to 4bet PF.
Here's another range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 6524615 7436014.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 14561741 7436014.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, QQ, AKs, AKo }
And it is a generous range for villain; if you take A-Ko out of villain's range our equity again decreases by 5%. With $14 in the pot, and needing to call $40 we aren't getting close to having 1.5:1 pot odds.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I intentionally left out 2/3 of AA/KK hands, guess my post wasn't clear that I think AA/KK is hugely discounted here.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I intentionally left out 2/3 of AA/KK hands, guess my post wasn't clear that I think AA/KK is hugely discounted here.
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If you are going to assume villain's are frequently going to get trappy with K-K+ and always nuts with J-J/Q-Q your analysis is going to be flawed. Neither of those scenarios are "standard", and since we know nothiing about our opponent it is a bad idea to factor those sorts of things into determining our equity.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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It's not nuts to 4bet shove JJ/QQ and it's not unstandard to smoothcall 3bets with AA/KK.
In fact, I would say those actions are closer to standard than the actions you're projecting.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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sigh... fold prolly
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
It's not nuts to 4bet shove JJ/QQ and it's not unstandard to smoothcall 3bets with AA/KK.
In fact, I would say those actions are closer to standard than the actions you're projecting.
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agree to disagree?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
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