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5/10 bottom two facing push on scary board

  
 
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gabe
Old 06-27-2006, 07:08 PM     Post subject: 5/10 bottom two facing push on scary board #1 (permalink)  
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only history between me and villian is that on another table a few minutes earlier, we got allin TPTK+nfd vs his set and he won.

he thought for a little while about pushing river, if that means anything

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($2516.26)
Button ($1027)
SB ($1572)
BB ($862.83)
UTG ($1431.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T, 9. SB posts a blind of $5.
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, Button calls $35, 1 fold, BB calls $25.

Flop: ($110) T, K, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $82, Button calls $82, BB calls $82.

Turn: ($356) A (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $250, BB folds, Hero calls $250.

River: ($856) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, , villian pushes for $660, Hero...
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zenbitz
Old 06-27-2006, 07:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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It's a push, but it's not an overbet, 3/4th pot.
What do you beat? AQ, AJ, JJ, QQ, busted f/d , air.

Only reason I want to call is that pot is laying you >2:1.... but you are probably beat.
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johnny_fish
Old 06-27-2006, 08:02 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I don't get it.. FD would check the turn behind usually, so what one pair hand would do this? Fold.
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gabe
Old 06-27-2006, 08:54 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_fish
I don't get it.. FD would check the turn behind usually, so what one pair hand would do this?
but a hand with no pair might
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bdawg56kg
Old 06-27-2006, 10:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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You'd have to put him on a naked flush draw here to call I think, but your line looks so weak that he very well might be pushing the river w/air. I'd probably fold without a better read (ie seeing him pull big bluffs).

Also, if you are calling this with bottom 2, this means you are calling with a hand like AQ/AJ right? Since there is little difference in relative hand values in this case.
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zenbitz
Old 06-27-2006, 10:48 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_fish
I don't get it.. FD would check the turn behind usually, so what one pair hand would do this?
but a hand with no pair might
You think he floats, then bets 2/3rd Pot on turn with air into 2 villains?

I think this hand is simple. X% he has 2 pair/set/straight Y% he has a weirdly played flush draw. If X <= 2 x Y then call.
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gabe
Old 06-28-2006, 01:53 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
If X <= 2 x Y then call.
well seems like you just solved poker
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veos
Old 06-28-2006, 01:19 PM #8 (permalink)  

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How many times would he bluff a missed flush? Does he usually bet draws?

Most people would reraise with set, KT, K9, T9 or straight without a flushdraw on flop. Higher pp, AK would definetly reraise pre-flop.

hmm.. would KJ, QJs/o, KT, K9, A9s/o, ATs/o even call your raise preflop? What table image do you have?

AQ would probably also reraise preflop and both AJ and AQ would fold the cbet.. But not if they were clubs. So i say AJs is the best shot of the two..

KQ, K9 (and maybe KJ) would probably rerasie you on the flop, or he could take a chance that the next card wouldn't be a club and hope you would check a missed flop..

KJ, KQ, KTs, JTs, AJs, ATs, A9 or QJs of clubs, or any other 2 clubs are a possibility...

But would he push JTs, KJ, KQ or KQs when the A hit the board and you called his bet? Don't think so..

It could also be a very strange played AK (he could push with that be cause he belives that you don't put him on that hand and would call with less) .. but, no.. people usually play them straight forward and reraise pre-flop.

That leaves AJs, ATs/o, A9, QJs of clubs or any other clubs are left..

hmm.. one thing i think is strange is if he has QJs he would have bet less on turn to trap you both and if he has QJo he would have rerased on flop not to risk another club on the turn. .. Or he called the flop hoping to get money from button also.. The more i think about it i would say he doesn't have QJs/o..

so, AJs, ATs/o or A9 .. and still perhaps QJs/o
In this situation i would have folded to his all-in.

I would have played it slightly differen and bet turn then check/folded river..
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zenbitz
Old 06-28-2006, 08:09 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
If X <= 2 x Y then call.
well seems like you just solved poker
Yeah, now the game is no fun for me.
The problem is, I can't get any sites to accept my bets of $(2X+Y)/2
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jackvance
Old 06-28-2006, 08:15 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 I think you are beat, and that you called..
Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
 
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