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400nl- A Common situation that I am Commonly Misplaying IMO

  
 
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sauce123
Old 02-28-2007, 07:37 AM     Post subject: 400nl- A Common situation that I am Commonly Misplaying IMO #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($130)
BB ($716.80)
UTG ($422.50)
MP ($547.45)
Hero ($839.50)
Button ($594)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A.
UTG raises to $16, MP calls $16, Hero raises to $80, 3 folds, UTG calls $64, MP folds.

Flop: ($182) 6, 6, J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $100, UTG raises to $342.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $624.50


OK, so you will all notice that the results are posted right off the bat. Villain in hand is a taggy regular who probably thinks I'm getting out of line cause I squeeze frequently. I did some pokerstove calcs here and noticed that i have a little over 25% equity against any pair here making a fold on flop correct regardless of what hes pushing with. Thats the easy part.

See my problem with this hand is that I feel I invested a significant number of bets and then was forced to fold with probably some equity on the pot which is a spot i hate to put myself into. I specifically made the cbet slightly over half pot as I knew it was going to be raised frequently and i definitely didnt want to be priced into calling... So is a cbet of any size +ev here?

So this hand is bad. Question is where. Raise a little less preflop to make a flop cbet and folding to a CR more clear??

Or check behind on flop and hope to hit a K or A?? If we hit JJ is a significant part of his range. If we hit a K, AA is a part as well.

Or C/F, maybe the best option. It just seems intuitively weird to me to raise to 80 pf with AK on a big 3bet and check/check, fold turn. Comments on betsizing and theory on all parts of the hand appreciated, I also think this is a fairly common situation at all levels. Thanks. Sauce.
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-28-2007, 08:04 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think possibly your weak flop bet might have influenced villain's push, because on the 2nd level of thinking, your 1/2 pot bet indicates you not willing to put your stack on the line; which is exactly the case.

If you really want folding equity and think villain will push with a wide range but cant call himself, then a c/r allin still gives you good equity. FWIW, villain shoves a lot more than AA-KK here after calling the preflop raise, especially if he thinks you are squeezing. You may also get a free showdown with AK vs AQ if you are so lucky.


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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 02-28-2007, 08:36 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Even OOP, you're 3-bet is pretty big. Do you take the same line with QQ-AA too? It somewhat seems like you're trying to deter action. Also the more you raise PF the harder a decision you're giving yourself when effective stacks are only 100BB and you flop nothing and have your c-bet raised.

Since he is a TAGG I think you have to give him credit for a pretty strong hand (99-AA, AK) to call such a large 3-bet. If you're squeezing a lot he probably doesn't give you credit for that much of a hand either. The flop comes such that he is almost always either way ahead or way behind. Given that he probably considers your range is fairly wide and you follow through on the flop with a weakish c-bet, you're creating a good situation for him to push a lot of his range. Again, you're large 3-bet sets the scenario up by essentially forcing him into a push/fold scenario.
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benny999
Old 02-28-2007, 08:43 AM #4 (permalink)  
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most times vs a tag I would just check that flop and try to spike top pair, unless he would call with a lot of PP only to fold on this board.
I'd only bet to mix up play so he thinks I'd bet nothing sometimes too.
As far as getting comitted or not with your bet sizing, I haven't given that much thought either, but I try to bet the size I think gets him to fold the most, whether it makes me comitted or not.
for example, say you bet 90 or something that left him with like 2/3 pot on the turn. he might call and try to showdown, but then you can shove if he checks the turn or river. maybe this is the same as other options, I dunno really, just a thought.
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koolmoe
Old 02-28-2007, 02:00 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
a c/r allin still gives you good equity.
That would be a neat trick since Hero is in position.
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pgil
Old 02-28-2007, 02:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by koolmoe
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
a c/r allin still gives you good equity.
That would be a neat trick since Hero is in position.
thats why it gives him so much FE, villain will never see it coming
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Genitruc
Old 02-28-2007, 03:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 this is actually Ravageur on genitruc's acct but anyway.

Do you usually squeeze that much? I"m not sure I like that amount, it 'looks' like a squeeze with AK, making it easier for villain to play this hand perfectly. Make it 64$ to go here?

I also don't mind checking behind, especially if you're capable of doing this with AA (i would have no problem checking AA here, there's not many turn cards we'd be worried about). So having said that a thinking villain won't insta-put you on AK after the check (although most do). If you do check, I think a cool line is to fire the turn and push any river if checked to (not sure how spewy that sounds, but when ppl do that to me I freak out).

Having said that, I really think villain has JJ/QQ here a ton of the time, so yeah in your case bet/fold isnt that bad. Check/folding every once in a while can't be that horrible either if villain is capable of getting it in here with less than the stonecold nuts.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 02-28-2007, 03:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 You don't bet this flop at all. You said this guy is solid; he raises UTG, then calls a large reraise when squeezed OOP. Unless he's really getting sick of you, his range, IMO, is AA-JJ, AK, all of which you are pretty much screwed against.

I don't like the c/r because you are so tricky he'll probably call you anyways with KK and maybe even convince himself to do it with QQ. Obviously with AA or JJ he's calling.

I know you squeeze a lot, but if he's solid he probably realizes that you squeezed a UTG raiser which definitely is representing something more often than not.

So check behind and pray to spike an A.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 02-28-2007, 04:09 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 i just check behind the flop, he know your three betting a lot so there's pretty much nothing in his range u are beating besides AQ and AK, which may push pre anyway.
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sauce123
Old 02-28-2007, 05:59 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Yea I don't think a bet is TERRIBLE exactly in hindsight...

A few notes from earlier posts,

I have no trouble whatsoever checking AA behind on a flop like this I would say I bet flop 2/3 and check flop 1/3 with AA.

I also (anyone on this forum who has played me can attest to this) raise a TON preflop with my bigpairs. I don't do this not to give set odds, I do it just because ppl routinely call a big 3bet by me with mid PPs and AQ AJ type hands, because they know a significant part of my squeezing range is hands like 97off. So naturally, its just the easiest way for me to build a big pot when I actually have a hand or else I would be ridiculously exploitable.

I honestly think a very in depth analysis is needed to see if that 3bet is "too big", it is definitely too big if the flop comes 66J lol. Though I agree it doesn't "have" to be this big as I am in position, however building a big pot in position with one of the better hands in hold em can't be all that terrible in the grand scheme of things.
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Ravageur
Old 02-28-2007, 10:00 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
I honestly think a very in depth analysis is needed to see if that 3bet is "too big", it is definitely too big if the flop comes 66J lol. Though I agree it doesn't "have" to be this big as I am in position, however building a big pot in position with one of the better hands in hold em can't be all that terrible in the grand scheme of things.
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Do you really make these sick squeezes with trashy hands? If so that's pretty sexy and I'm glad I don't play at your tables. I can't imagine what i'd do with 10s if I was villain in this hand. Probably call and c/r AI on most flops. Either than that there's not all that much you can do to defend your style (If villain pushes he's only getting called by better). Obviously it can't be bad to play a bit pot with AKs in position, but that's just this hand in a vacuum. People are really calling >1/4 of their stacks set mining at 400 nl?

Hrm...don't think i'm up for thoroughly analyzing how +EV your squeezes are, but throw in metagame and they can't be that bad. Myself and my poker friends are in a phase where we're not ultra aggro preflop in shorthanded games, mainly because we think our edges are magnified postflop. In doing this though we don't force our opponents to make big mistakes preflop. What are your PT stats btw?
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Renton
Old 02-28-2007, 10:13 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 64-70 should suffice preflop.

This is a pretty good flop to bet. I u think he thinks u are full of shit, then obviously check back and yahtzee the turn.
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sauce123
Old 02-28-2007, 11:35 PM #13 (permalink)  
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OK

So.... Yes I make lots of squeezes with trashy hands, mostly against nitty regs, I also raise a LOT PF with my big hands to semi-offset this. On a side not I don't make squeezes with trash against tight (relatively, I mean I believe hes like a 19/17 or somethin) UTG regs because.... THEY GET CALLED A LOT lol. So in this spot my range is probably TT+ AK, AQs maybe. Though I doubt UTG knows this. There are definitely situations where a CO raises is called by a loose btn and SB and I will squeeze with any two just because CO range= QTo+ type hands and so my squeeze/cbet line is +ev even if I never ever hit a flop.

My PT stats at 400 nl r: 25//20//3.11 total AF

These are also incredibly misleading as I went through a phase where I decided to try a 30/24 type BLD style just for fun but I decided against it as it hurts my brain too much. Also small sample size but whatever...



Ok so back to the hand: Just opinions on the other line which hasn't been brought up yet. Open push?? When called with JJ we have approx 0 equity... however it is much more likely he has QQ or a smaller PP or AK AQ and with QQ here he can only beat a bluff. Is this +ev??

Is it +ev if we raise to 100 PF, therefore manipulating potsize to out advantage??

And yes, I do overbet with AA about 25% of the time preflop, legit (and KK).

I wonder about this smaller cbet line, cause it just seems so weak and I can't imagine anyone folding here ever, actually I would be inclined to make a play like that with AA, expecting to be CR shoved with air and all PP a lot.

Just a few things to think about.

(One last note: lol the reason I bet so much pf was that I just got a new AHK script and I accidentally clicked the wrong button- this would have been my std 3bet OOP, though I think the difference in ev here would be small regardless of my 3bet size on average)

Sry about length. Sauce
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c-luvin
Old 03-01-2007, 02:03 AM #14 (permalink)  
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sauce, godly play lately

Me and the steinbergs were just discussing your Ak hand. checkin behind is pretty much the concensus. as for open pushing its true your scaring QQ off maybe 1/2 the time depending on how much hes seen you squeezing, jj your fucked, is he really making this call with 99-1010 oop, is he not pushing you pf with ak,aq if hes really trying to play back at you for making these squeeze raises, so open pushing really doesnt work considering the majority of his range is calling.

as for raising to 100pf, as you said before getting into a big hand with one of the best hands in holdem cant be that bad so it doesnt make sense to me to do this with ak because the hands that call 100 pf are killing you, the hands that call 64-70pf are profitable to play against with ak.

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gabe
Old 03-01-2007, 02:05 AM #15 (permalink)  
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check or bet enough that you have to call

i like check because you dont turn your hand into a total bluff, which is what people think you are doing anyway since you are squeezing alot
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elipsesjeff
Old 03-01-2007, 02:11 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c-luvin
as for raising to 100pf, as you said before getting into a big hand with one of the best hands in holdem cant be that bad so it doesnt make sense to me to do this with ak because the hands that call 100 pf are killing you, the hands that call 64-70pf are profitable to play against with ak.
This makes some good sense.

For some reason I though OP was in the BB and so open push wouldn't be the best unless villain was shortstacked.

How often would villain 4bet preflop with a good hand to get it HU? Does this limit his range some?


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c-luvin
Old 03-01-2007, 03:05 AM #17 (permalink)  
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in this situation 4 bet to what? i think in this situation since sauce made a large raise he thinks hes getting all his chips in with AA-KK regardless so it would be a good spot to smooth call a 3-bet. he might 4-bet QQ so maybe take that out of his range, and as i also said in my post i think hes 4-bet pushing AK(maybe aq) if he is trying to play back at you for 3 betting light. haha soooo....this leaves him with JJ maybe 1010? AA KK

...also maybe we are giving villain way too much credit how much do you know about this guy that we can actually narrow his hands down to AA KK or JJ. still the more we look at the hand the more it looks like a c/c, and fold to a bet or check it down
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sauce123
Old 03-01-2007, 03:28 AM #18 (permalink)  
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theres no way he 4bet here ever except with AK or a bluff maybe... Sauce
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Genitruc
Old 03-01-2007, 05:07 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 I think as a general line with a bloated pot like this checking is better than open-pushing is better than bet-folding.

As you mentioned before, stack sizes are awkward for the push so either raising more or less seems optimal preflop.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Alibi
Old 03-01-2007, 06:28 AM #20 (permalink)  
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doesn't the check scream AK though?
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 03-01-2007, 07:48 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alibi
doesn't the check scream AK though?
No, AA or JJ could check behind.

Quote:
theres no way he 4bet here ever except with AK or a bluff maybe... Sauce
I wholeheartly agree. AK is 4-betting this everytime if he isn't giving you credit. And also, JJ may do this too come to think of it, maybe even QQ. I'm surprised most of you aren't seeing what i'm seeing... I think this guy has a monster hand.
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c-luvin
Old 03-01-2007, 06:40 PM #22 (permalink)  
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im with massimo
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