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3bet pot, turning made hand into riverbluff vs nit

  
 
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minSim
Old 03-16-2010, 05:26 PM     Post subject: 3bet pot, turning made hand into riverbluff vs nit #1 (permalink)  
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BTN is playing 15/12/7.0 with 7% 3bet over 144 hands and has 3bet me a few times already in only like 30 hands or so. In all he had position on me, I folded everytime.
He cbet only 1 out of 4 orbits which I saw in his stats, I haven't seen him play any postflop pot this session, nor do I have notes from before.

UTG is the table fish 36/0/1 over 116 hands which I have been isolating a ton but he has gotten the best of me so far.

I have been 25/20 at the table with everyone being tight and I'm hunting the fish.

In short my thoughts:
Pre I think I can make a little profit with a call when UTG is in the pot as well.
On the flop the only thing I thought of was overpairs. His turn action actually makes little sense for an overpairs other than that he's afraid, which is why I shoved river.

While writing this post I conclude that the river being a club is probably a bad thing as AKcc or some lost SC of clubs makes a lot of sense for villain.
I missed that at the table to be honoust.

As far as I can remember this is the first time I have turned a made hand into a bluff. I don't think it's a great hand and probably at best close, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.
If you think it's spew, maybe you can give some variables in the hand that should differ for it to be good.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($58.65)
MP ($55.65)
Hero (CO) ($53.95)
Button ($53.70)
SB ($51.45)
BB ($52.90)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, J
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero bets $2.50, Button raises to $7.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $7, Hero calls $5
Flop: ($23.25) 8, 9, 2 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets $11, 1 fold, Hero calls $11
Turn: ($45.25) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($45.25) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $35.45 (All-In)
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Muzzard
Old 03-16-2010, 05:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I would rather 4b pre than call as we don't have absolute or relative position and it's going to be hand for us to continue when we flop a medium hand esp if the fish is the donking type. Even if he isn't we're going to have to c/f a tonne of flops to the pfx.

As played meh, I guess I c/f river a fair amount. As most his range seems to be air, unless he likes to check back strong hands on the turn, but I really can't see that on this board. Obv if you flopped a set or strong draw like JTcc you'd just crai flop.

I also assume you'd 4b QQ/AK pre too with fish cold calling?

How does villain see you? some kind of nit? I just don't see why he'd check back turn even with QQ+AKcc, the only two possible made hands I can see him checking back are like A9/A8/ rest of his range looks to be air.

I guess river shove is fine if he'd fold A9/QK/JQ/AQ, pretty sure he's calling with JT and obv flushes, but thats a real slim part of his range that I'd assume he'd barrel anyway.
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pocketfours
Old 03-16-2010, 06:20 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Why didn't you shove the flop with your straight- and flush draw?
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minSim
Old 03-16-2010, 06:32 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
Why didn't you shove the flop with your straight- and flush draw?
Good point, if I understand you right. I probably would have. I might c/c some of the weaker ones because I think I have little to no FE on the flop. But there are so little weak ones on a board like this.

I'm not 100% confident my 50NL villain thinks like this and goes with it though.

I guess his turn play basically made me stop at level 2 thinking.
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shakesss
Old 03-16-2010, 06:55 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I think i might bet/fold flop for like 15-18. As played i think checking opens you up to getting bluffed a lot, but shoving is pretty thin coz its hard to imagine you had a fd on the flop( unless he thinks you are super passive). He could end up looking you up pretty light. Bet/fold river 10-14?
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Carroters
Old 03-16-2010, 07:28 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Nah 10-14 on the river is never folding out any of the hands we're actually wanting to fold out imo. We'd be far better just checking for a showdown than betting small.

 
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griffey24
Old 03-17-2010, 12:10 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 I don't see why you feel the need to bluff here really? I think we're good enough and get to showdown enough to just check this puppy down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
 
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nutsinho
Old 03-17-2010, 12:36 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
I don't see why you feel the need to bluff here really? I think we're good enough and get to showdown enough to just check this puppy down.

but why cant bluffing be better in a vacuum?
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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griffey24
Old 03-17-2010, 02:14 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 I just can't imagine what part of such a nits range that's better than ours is folding here other than AQ... if that even.

Not even sure he'd 3bet TT/JJ pre.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
 
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nutsinho
Old 03-17-2010, 02:27 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 assume he checked back KK-AA on the turn. do you think thats because he thinks the likelihood we will turn a pair into a bluff on the river exceeds the value of charging our infinite pair + str draw hands? or maybe because hes scared as shit?
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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nutsinho
Old 03-17-2010, 02:30 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 i am not necessarily saying i think a bluff here is awesome. im just playing devils advocate because a lot of ppl on these boards play a really aggro game but dont make the superaggro moves that are truly hood because thinking players arent expecting you to make them.
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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minSim
Old 03-17-2010, 08:13 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
I don't see why you feel the need to bluff here really? I think we're good enough and get to showdown enough to just check this puppy down.
Without considering balancing, you should understand that this isn't an argument for or against bluffing.
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