3-bet called, hit my weak Ace

Opponent stats over 200 hands:
VP$IP: 17%
PFR 14.5%
Fold to 3-bet: 85%
Fold to flop c-bet: 50%

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200.00)
UTG+1 ($197.00)
CO ($214.00)
BTN ($361.40)
SB ($198.00)
Hero ($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $8, 4 folds, Hero raises to $24, UTG calls $16

Flop: ($49, 2 players)
Hero???

Step 1: 3-bet kinda nitty guy who opens a fair range
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit

What's my plan for this spot?

bet/fold is std??

If called, I check/fold anything but a deuce?

yeah, i think we need to play it as simple as that. anything else is just too fancy imo and will make turn action a nightmare.

urg. if he raises 14% and folds everything but 15% to a 3bet that makes him folding everything apart from just over 2%. If you call that 3% to make it a little wider that is still JJ+ and AK. I'm not sure check fold is not the best option even if i would nearly always bet fold as above.

One of these days i will learn 6max but I need some convincing that 3betting an utg raise with this hand is good. OK, he folds a lot to 3bets, but you have picked on his tightest range, and even if he thinks you have a lot stronger hand than you do and is wary

EDIT: oh yeah, good point about sample size of 200. almost means nothing I spose.

im not sure over 200 hands fold to 3 bet stats will be accurate. its good to know sample size for 3 bets he has faced. i hate 3 betting a weak suited ace out of position.

what cruz said - 200 hands is too small a sample to look at fold to 3b and fold to cbet (esp fold to cbet in 3bet pots). It's a big enough sample to make me not wanna mess around too much with his UTG raises, though.

Flop is interesting, what does he think of us? If I've been 3-betting/cbetting alot I think b/f, if he has no reason to think I'm out of line preflop then I might just c/f the flop (but stick in a valuebet somewhere on a later street if it checks through). My thinking being that he's probably mucking anything less than KK to a cbet on this flop, he doesn't have many hands to bluff with if we check, and he's probably gonna try to check down JJ/TT but miiiight cry call a bet on a later street.

Yah, I agree with the previous posts in that I'm not a big fan of preflop. I'd rather do this with a more polarized range that wouldn't tempt me to stack off with the second best hand. Or at very least, 3-bet UTG IN position with this kind of hand.

As played, I think I'm looking for only one street of value here post flop. I think if we get a second street in here we're in trouble. I don't mind checking flop (with intention of calling), and probably c/f turn since I don't think he's turning KQ/KK/JJ into a bluff.

If flop checks through, I'd bet turn, since those above hands will likely peel one street.

i don't like pre (although i could be talked around, do we have any reads on his 4betting tendencies or calling 3bets oop?). flop here i check. if he's nitty he probably plays straightforward/faceup enough and as others have said you probably get value later(i might check turn also).

do fold to 3-bet and fold flop to cbet have massive significance in any spot even with a decent sample for any good player? my stats would be hugely different vs different players.

I usually check the flop when I find myself in these spots. If it checks through he'll be more inclined to peel with lesser hands. If he bets I'll call one street and c/f the turn.

Basically what Griffey said.

I check the flop everytime. What hands can you really extract value from?

I may even check two streets in this situation and go for one street of value on the river.... thats why I would hardly ever three bet with this hand.

If the original raise is from utg from a somewhat nitty dude, I think its even more important to polarize your three bet range here.

How much have you been 3betting? If you've been 3betting noticeably light (or even semi-light) default would be to check flop and b/f turn + riv.

Pretend you have KK and play it the same way.

Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

im not sure over 200 hands fold to 3 bet stats will be accurate. its good to know sample size for 3 bets he has faced.

Good enough to make some educated guesses about how he plays. Christ sakes you guys bitch and bitch about playing tough hands about unknowns. 200 hands is how many HOURS of live play? I would LOVE a big datamine of the regulars or if I played for a living again I would have four figure samples on the regulars. I don't. I'm not going to pass on a good light 3-bet once in while because of this.

As for playing back at his UTG range, he probably knows that I'm positionally aware which offsets some of the risk so long as I'm careful about frequency and aware of where we're at in our relationship.

All, Consider the merits of the following hands for making this play:
A2s
67s
J4o
KQo
22

i think pre is fine every once and awhile and its a ok hand to do it with. it makes top pair and when it hits your not going to have other aces that often since he folding everything besides ak and maybe 4betting that. also it has blockers to other aces and AA. and its suited.

i would like to know his attempt to steal before doing it though to kind of get a feel for just how tight his utg range is going to be. if its high then i wouldnt do this as much but if its closer to his pfr then this would be better.

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

i would like to know his attempt to steal before doing it though to kind of get a feel for just how tight his utg range is going to be. if its high then i wouldnt do this as much but if its closer to his pfr then this would be better.

THANK YOU!

I'm very inclined towards c/cing a flop and a river if he's the type who doesn't auto-give up after firing once.

bad

If I was bluffing here I'd probably bet out like 2/5ths pot and get JJ/99 to fold.

Since we have A2s on this board we only have two real hands that we are vbetting that call the flop, none of which have more than at most 2 streets of value (KK, sometimes KQ). SO the obvious move on the flop is to check/fold.

Turn it gets tricky. It looks like we may want c/c on chance he is either betting KK or making a stab with a low pp, However at least with a low pp he probably is stabbing dos streets.

River, obviously we vbet if we got here, which is probably going to happen about 1/3rd of the time. He should call with 99-JJ, KQ, KK.

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I usually check the flop when I find myself in these spots. If it checks through he'll be more inclined to peel with lesser hands.

Checking this flop looks stronger than betting, so this isn't necessarily true. I do agree with Danny that just based on preflop this guy's range is so strong that check/fold is the clear play on the flop. Honestly I think you should just check/fold every street unless you improve, but this guy seems pretty bad at poker so you can probably bet the river and have him call you with a worse pair.

Any merit in giving up some EV by bet/folding the flop to avoid showing my hand? If he raises I can always run the timer and bitch about Ace magnets.

There's virtually no reason to bet the flop.

i m arriving late but i ll respond without reading what other ppl have to say

i like, in order :

1-bet flop, check/fold turn, 1/3 pot riv

2-check flop, check/call turn, check/call riv

3-bet flop, shove turn

and folding to a raise at any point

oh yeah there is 1 reason to bet flop...

idk...there is only a small range that we're ahead of here. He's not calling many 3-bets, so that limits his holdings. The board hit his high A or QQ, so we're behind those and he isn't folding them. So KK, maybe 99-JJ is what we can beat and what he would possibly fold as well.

Knowing that, I'm willing to play this one sorta passive and c/c the flop, c/f the turn, and bet the river (if we make it). He's not betting the turn with hands we beat but he may raise the flop with those same hands and since we can't call his raise, let's not set ourselves up. If we make it to the river then we're obviously ahead and can slip in a value bet that KK and maybe JJ can't help but call.

What is his aggression level? Is he going to fire the flop with worse than your hand?
You indicated that he's kinda nitty so I like c/f flop. c/f turn and bet/fold river.
My guess is that his range hit this flop pretty damn hard. AQs+, AK, TT+. He probably isn't calling a 3bet OOP with much less unless you've been 3betting the hell out of him or the table.
I ran the numbers thru Stove and I'm amazed that we are even favored. 55/45 vs my range estimate. Maybe I b/f turn to make it look like a steal as Griffey said.

Originally Posted by Silly String

I ran the numbers thru Stove and I'm amazed that we are even favored.

There is a reason Ax is LoLPush 10bbish deep. It's never that far behind.

Just surprised. Of that range all that we beat is KK, JJ, TT, but they make up the majority of his range since we have 2 exposed Aces. Everything else has us crippled though.
The villain only has 8 combos of AK, 2 AQs, 3 QQ, 1AA that beat us. Just found the Ace holdings very surprisingly low. 18 combos of the PPs that we beat.
So we beat 18 hands and he wins 14 hands, then his chance to suxors out is a little better. 55/45 us.
That is provided my range estimate is even close.