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zook
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08-08-2007, 02:23 AM
Post subject: 3/6 sick spot 230bb deep
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
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Villain is a laggro regular (26/20/3.6 over 2.5k hands) but I haven't seen him get out of line in big pots. I've been abusing him a little at this table and another, playing very aggressively. He hasn't resisted until this hand...
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 4 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1464.60
Hero: $1378.15
SB: $674
BB: $600
Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8  7 
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.
Flop: J  5 6 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.
Turn: 9 ($131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero...
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Fnord
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Hero Calls.
Fold the river if the board pairs. Don't give up if a 4rth diamond hits.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
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hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
i think you can fold here...check/raising this turn is very strong. he also sized the bet very much like he wants value.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Hero Calls.
Fold the river if the board pairs. Don't give up if a 4rth diamond hits.
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what makes you so sure he doesn't have a flush?
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snowbird4life
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Straight
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Im pretty sure i call here from what you have said. It sounds like hes just sick of you pushing him around.
Pretty much what fnord said imo, i cant see folding this right now anyway.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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villain played his hand horribly unless he has air.
i do what fnord does though.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Hero Calls.
Fold the river if the board pairs. Don't give up if a 4rth diamond hits.
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what makes you so sure he doesn't have a flush? |
We're not but we cant think like this.
Just because our opponent has a flush sometimes here, it makes up very little of his range. JJ, 66, 55, 99, AA, KK,QQ,AdJ, air all could very well play this similarly, and each of those hands are combined way more likely than a flush.
Our hand actually doesnt look as strong as it is, in fact if im opp i probably play air this way a lot. We can just rep so much more than zook (who most of the time raises flops with fd's i would think), and zook plays so many weak hands this way.
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snowbird4life
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Straight
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I totally agree with ISF here i just cant put it into words as well as he did lol.
I think this applies to a lot of other hands as well. Not directing this towards Hyper, but i think a lot of times people tend to weight villains range towards what they are scared of, and not really what his range actually is. I think this is part of the reason in a lot of instances bet/fold is the better line (not here, but in general). In this instance, i think you are seeing a flush here way less than you think especially given OP's reads on villain.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
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his line doesn't make that much sense for JJ, 66, 55, 99, AA, KK, QQ...
aren't those hands betting the turn again?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
his line doesn't make that much sense for JJ, 66, 55, 99, AA, KK, QQ...
aren't those hands betting the turn again?
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doesnt a flush?
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|~|ypermegachi
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touché
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silu73
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I would call and call a river bet on the river if the board doesn't pair (basically same thing Fnord said).
Just one question. What if a 4th diamond falls and villain open pushes? Then it would be a clear fold right?
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benny999
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zook - do you float a lot? he prob expects you to raise a flush draw but maybe you don't.
also, why would a set/2pr do that for value, at least without some history or something?
i would think his range is mostly air/diamond or big flushes.
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zook
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
zook - do you float a lot?
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Some. I wouldn't say a lot. I mainly raise flush draws, but occasionally call with non-nut draws to balance my other floats.
I'm a little surprised by the advice so far. Why am I calling a river bet if a 4th diamond hits? I definitely agree that he could have air, but isn't a semibluff a bigger part of his range?
Also, everyone's assuming that he's ready to play back at me (which could definitely be true), but another way to interpret my read is that he isn't willing to play a big pot without a big hand.
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benny999
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i think lags are more likely to play back than wait for a hand.
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IowaSkinsFan
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wait im sorry misread fnords advice. WTF this is an easy shove on the turn no doubt about it.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
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in position i call. also were he making these big 4x raises as a part of his agression before ?
and if ur decided to call big bet on river then push right here as teres like 20 scare cards to come in river.
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Ravageur
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
wait im sorry misread fnords advice. WTF this is an easy shove on the turn no doubt about it.
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I'm not sure a shove gets called by anything worse than a set. Maybe i'm being too nitty though in thinking of what villain's calling range is this deep. I just think since we're not folding at this point, we might as well get as much value out of his potential Air compared with the amount of times we're paying off a flush anyway. I don't think at this point we need to protect against another diamond (if we get sucked on that sucks but oh well) and if he boats up on the river he wasn't folding the turn anyway so it doesn't matter. I think Fnord's advice is pretty good.
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Family Cruise IMO
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|~|ypermegachi
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230bb deep i think pushing here is really bad.
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zook
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I called. Still not sure what I think of that.
Part 2, a nice river comes, but he bets almost 90bb!
Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.
Flop: J 5 6 ($51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.
Turn: 9 ($131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero calls.
River: Q  ($881, 2 players)
UTG bets $525, Hero...
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I called. Still not sure what I think of that.
Part 2, a nice river comes, but he bets almost 90bb!
Pre-flop: ( 4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.
Flop: J 5 6 ( $51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.
Turn: 9 ( $131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero calls.
River: Q ( $881, 2 players)
UTG bets $525, Hero... |
How could you fold here. call
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ravageur
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
wait im sorry misread fnords advice. WTF this is an easy shove on the turn no doubt about it.
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I'm not sure a shove gets called by anything worse than a set. Maybe i'm being too nitty though in thinking of what villain's calling range is this deep. I just think since we're not folding at this point, we might as well get as much value out of his potential Air compared with the amount of times we're paying off a flush anyway. I don't think at this point we need to protect against another diamond (if we get sucked on that sucks but oh well) and if he boats up on the river he wasn't folding the turn anyway so it doesn't matter. I think Fnord's advice is pretty good. |
I think its pretty close (wow i flip flop like Obama)
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Fnord
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Look him up on the river. Ni Han.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
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if u called turn it was obv u will have to call bet on river, u cant fold here. not that great to continue with that straight so deep but woteva.
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SmackinYaUp
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I'm not sure what to do here, this spot sucks balls.
His huge bet on the river sure looks like either a flush or a bluff. If you've been pushing him around a lot and he had a set, I don't see why he'd value bet it so strongly.
I wouldn't discount the flush as much as quickly as everyone else. Lets say I raised AKs in that spot utg and the asshole who's been pushing me around calls yet again. The asshole floats me once again but hot damn I finally hit a diamond! I'll check and let the asshole try and steal (again) and I'll smack a big checkraise in his face. Oh look he called... and the river brings a blank! How lovely I think I'll bet 525.
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Miffed22001
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I called. Still not sure what I think of that.
Part 2, a nice river comes, but he bets almost 90bb!
Pre-flop: ( 4 players) Hero is Button with 8 7
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls, 2 folds.
Flop: J 5 6 ( $51, 2 players)
UTG bets $40, Hero calls.
Turn: 9 ( $131, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $111, UTG raises to $375, Hero calls.
River: Q ( $881, 2 players)
UTG bets $525, Hero... |
this looks like a pretty easy call.
I can see why you dont like the turn call but did it occur he could have picked up lots of backdoor draws (straight/flush draws) and decided you werent going to see a river card for cheap and that he shouldnt be bluffing here anyway?
I think calling turn is the correct decision and that on anything but a non diamond river im all in if he pushes and probably only calling a river bet (weak but we could push for value perhaps)
Also, any chance you are pushing him off the same hand?
With those stats (his) i know id open up your hand UTG sometimes for mixture... but QTd looks like a probablility for his hand. Or have we not really seen him raise turn bets on air/draws as a laggro yet?
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zook
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Smackin: Some of my thoughts exactly. I'm glad someone else doesn't think this is easy. (And I'm not being results-oriented, I timed down before I called the river.)
Miffed: Not sure what your first question is exactly, but it did occur to me that he might c/r the turn if he picked up some outs (backdoor flush or str8 draws) which is why I briefly considered 3-betting the turn. But then I decided I was pretty far ahead or drawing dead and I'm probably not getting any value from hands I'm ahead of by 3-betting. I think I'm comfortable with the turn call now.
As for my reads on him, I called him a laggro because of his stats and the fact that he steals from the CO and BTN a TON and c-bets a lot. He actually usually folds to my 3-bets, both in and out of position, and has folded to most resistance I've put up. So far in this short session I think I had raised his c-bet once, floated and bet a flush turn once and double-barreled him a couple of times, and he folded every time. So he's either waiting for a hand or finally playing back at me. He's a regular, so I assume he's capable of playing back, but I'd be a little surprised if he'd choose to do it 230bb deep.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Calling the turn just brings a real problem because we've defined our range so well and have made it real easy for our opponent to play on the river.
Does he not Vbet sets or overpairs on the river? Well it's not like he was going to fold them to a shove but now he may not value bet(although it wouldn't be the best play with the way he played it). You've just lost tons of equity against made hands.
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SmackinYaUp
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Calling the turn just brings a real problem because we've defined our range so well and have made it real easy for our opponent to play on the river.
Does he not Vbet sets or overpairs on the river? Well it's not like he was going to fold them to a shove but now he may not value bet(although it wouldn't be the best play with the way he played it). You've just lost tons of equity against made hands.
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Just curious, why do you think its easy for the opponent to play on the river? I am weak playing out of position on the river in big deep pots like this. If I was in his shoes with something like a set, I'd be hard-pressed to find the most +ev move here.
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He who drinks beer sleeps well.
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zook
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Calling the turn just brings a real problem because we've defined our range so well
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I completely disagree. I could have a huge range here... anywhere from a strong made hand (like 87, set or 2pr) that feels wa/wb, to a nut or near-nut flush, to a TP that thinks opp is making a move, to a good flush draw that thinks implied odds are there (2.4:1 pot odds aren't terrible either).
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|~|ypermegachi
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i still don't really understand why most people here are so willing to call down. just because zook's been bullying villain here doesn't mean he's playing back. he could have a hand, and from how he sized his bets, it looks like he has a flush.
unless he is incredibly tricky, most bluffs who CR more and bet more on the river.
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Miffed22001
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
i still don't really understand why most people here are so willing to call down. just because zook's been bullying villain here doesn't mean he's playing back. he could have a hand, and from how he sized his bets, it looks like he has a flush.
unless he is incredibly tricky, most bluffs who CR more and bet more on the river.
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he could have a set here as much as a flush and because hes playing back for some reason he has either a flush or a set and with the river we cant noit call.
Also, as said above if we raise his turn c/r we give away our range to something destroying a set/overpair.
So i call turn and force myself to call anyriver even this deep.
I think he has a flush or set, very rarelt an overpair or the same hand and i say that because hes pissed that we are forcing him to play. But we havent done much to him so far right....
playing it this way and calling river is def right IMO.
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sauce123
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i dont think this spot sucks balls i think ur way ahead a lot
id call turn as a lot of villains range is bluffs and i think hes going to follow thru often enough for call>raise for protection
on river i think its muuuch closer to raise than to fold but id call.
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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sauce123
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ISF- i think we should call with almost our whole range in this spot so it doesnt define our hand whatsoever
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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SmackinYaUp
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
ISF- i think we should call with almost our whole range in this spot so it doesnt define our hand whatsoever
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What kind of range would you be willing call with and what kind of range do you put the opponent on?
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He who drinks beer sleeps well.
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He who does not sin goes to Heaven.
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sauce123
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
ISF- i think we should call with almost our whole range in this spot so it doesnt define our hand whatsoever
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What kind of range would you be willing call with and what kind of range do you put the opponent on? |
i think the weakest hand we can conceivably call with is AdJx
obv any set, 56+, any flush. I mean even is he is tilting i just dont think we can call c/r + bet with worse.
i would naturally assume hes relatively weak here- with AdKx and a big PP with a diamond being his two most likely hands as well as some big flushes occasionally. i really dont like villain's line: with 100 BB stacks this line is veeeeerry often a semibluff in today's game. with stacks this big it has a lot more merit but i would still tilt it towards a semibluff because it puts him in a shitty spot with any other strongish made hand. also at least 10% bluffs
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Ash256
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crazycrazy
if u called turn it was obv u will have to call bet on river, u cant fold here.
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Untrue.
Interesting hand, fun absorbing the various opinions. Only thing I can input is agreeing with Hyper that he may not necessarily be playing back just cause we've been giving him some shit.
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mixchange
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I call the river, but holding my breath. I think he has a hand, it's just whether or not he hit his flush which is really hard to determine. He's definitely got a hand in this spot by the river, but doesn't have to on the turn.
I don't see why he c/r's with a flush though, that would be an odd way to play it... that's a big reason I call, the line reminds me more of a set or draw (e.g. Kd10x or KdQx) than a flush. I call river, as I can't constantly play in fear of a flush in HU raised pots. It could be a higher straight, which would be the most infuriating ;p
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benny999
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does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?
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sauce123
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?
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i rly think the best line for villain here is bet/bet/bet with all of these hands
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Fnord
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Zook, if you think he's got it, fold. Otherwise Call, Call is probably the line unless you think he's going to give up or tip his hand on the river. I think only you can really answer these questions given your first hand information. Even someone in the same player pool as you has less information to work with here.
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Miffed22001
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?
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i rly think the best line for villain here is bet/bet/bet with all of these hands |
yeah but if hes going to mix it up and catch us off guard then this is the line with a set right?
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Zook, if you think he's got it, fold.
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zook, if you had doubts whether he has the flush or not on the turn, i think this river is a pretty clear indicator he does have the flush.
do you have any river aggression numbers? showdown hands?
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SmackinYaUp
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Whatever the case is, I really don't see a decent reg overplaying a single pair this bad..unless he was trying to bluff with it for some reason.
If he knows you're not a fish, he's not gonna vbet a single pair that hard. In fact, if he thinks you're a fish, every possible draw hit. He knows 78 could be out there.
With your recent history of abusing him, he is either bluffing or he has a flush. I really doubt he'd put 200bbs into the pot vs a floating abuser when every draw hit. Most likely he's either bluffing or has the flush.
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He who drinks beer sleeps well.
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benny999
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a set doesnt make sense to me, since i think most good regs use similar logic to sauce...i mean does he expect zook to call down with AJ?
im not saying it's impossible, but it's a very small part of his range imo.
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silu73
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To be honest I sometimes play my flushes this way. Raise pre-flop get called, c/bet gets called, voila I hit my flush on the turn. If I believe that my opponent got a piece of the turn card I go for a check/raise and value bet the river. I know its a donkish line but it confuses the hell out of my regular opponents. However, I also play the same way with air to mix it up.
Here, if you think opponent can be tricky I could make an argument for folding but given that I have a straight and am so far ahead his likely holdings I might call and pray.
Also given that Zook as quite a history with the opponent and he has not gotten out of line in big pots, his line suggests he is not afraid of the flush. The more I think about it the more I tend towards folding (but would then break my head about "what could he have had?"
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sauce123
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i think his river bet fits set/bluff/str8/flush but pretty much excludes two pair and overpairs
without history this would be a lot closer
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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zook
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Thanks for all the discussion everyone. Fnord, I agree with you that I *should* know best whether calling is correct here, but I was conflicted at the time and then results came and biased my thinking. I never post things looking for a definitive answer, just looking for ideas that will improve my thought process the next time.
Results: I called, villain showed Kh Td for the rivered straight.
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mixchange
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god, I had such a sick feeling he had k10 there with 1d.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
does anyone think c/r the turn then bet the river is a good line for value from UTG with an overpair? with J9? 555?
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i rly think the best line for villain here is bet/bet/bet with all of these hands |
Yeah but an overpair is a horrible check raise here, 77 is just mildly bad.
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06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
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