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25nl, rivered sraight facing shove

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yourfather

08-29-2008, 09:16 PM Post subject: 25nl, rivered sraight facing shove

#1 (permalink)

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Not much of a read on villain but I think he's prob a donk. He's minbet a couple flop and turns.

Can he ever have a boat here? His line is so weird. Maybe we have the same hand?

Snap call right?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $108
Hero (MP): $26.75
CO: $29.40
BTN: $28.60
SB: $24.70
BB: $13.90

Pre-Flop: A

dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 2

(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05) K

(2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

River: ($5.55) Q

(2 Players)
Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $26 and is All-In, Hero snaps calls?,

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Ash256

08-29-2008, 09:25 PM

#2 (permalink)

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I don't understand what he has so call

Listen to my music

freechus9

08-29-2008, 09:31 PM

#3 (permalink)

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snap

My sig is too much for you to handle.

overflow

08-29-2008, 10:55 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 356

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash256

I don't understand what he has so call

I snap but he's got KK or QQ here some of the time. LAG donks hate 3-betting monsters preflop because they want to be able to take LAGvalue lines with them post flop with underrepped hands (even if they don't know that's why they're doing it). So I think QQ and KK are in his range a lot more than your usual TAG in this spot. It's possible he flopped trip deuces, it's so weird because you're getting 34/23 on your money which is pretty crappy.
We're getting about 1.48:1 on our money so if we're right 41% of the time, or more, we should show a profit:
(34)(.41) + (23)(-.59) = $0.37 +EV

Let's stove a decent range and see if we've got 41% equity!

Code:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  60  games     0.005 secs    12,000  games/sec

Board: 2d Jc 2s Ks Qh
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	75.833%  	68.33% 	07.50% 	            41 	        4.50   { AdTh }
Hand 1: 	24.167%  	16.67% 	07.50% 	            10 	        4.50   { JJ+, 22, AQs+, ATs, KJs+, QJs, AQo+, ATo, KJo+ }


---

Ok, maybe that range is a bit wide for shoving the river, so let's take out a few one pair hands. In this model, I've taken away all the combos of AQ, reduced the combos of KJ by 1/2, and reduced the number of AK hands by 1/4.

Code:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   4,137,974  games    18.712 secs   221,140  games/sec

Board: 2d Jc 2s Ks Qh
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	68.473%  	58.71% 	09.76% 	       2429419 	   404002.00   { AdTh }
Hand 1: 	31.527%  	21.76% 	09.76% 	        900617 	   404004.50   { JJ+, 22, AcKc, ATs, KcQc, KdQd, KcJc, KdJd, QJs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, ATo, KQo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJh, KdJs, KhJs }


---

You're still waaaaaaay in the black for this decision. Let's try one more time for giggles, this time he only gets straights, full houses, and AA:

Code:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   4,137,974  games    18.712 secs   221,140  games/sec

Board: 2d Jc 2s Ks Qh
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	68.473%  	58.71% 	09.76% 	       2429419 	   404002.00   { AdTh }
Hand 1: 	31.527%  	21.76% 	09.76% 	        900617 	   404004.50   { JJ+, 22, AcKc, ATs, KcQc, KdQd, KcJc, KdJd, QJs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, ATo, KQo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJh, KdJs, KhJs }


---

If he's only shoving boats, and hands that tie you you're pretty well screwed, if he even has 2 pair, aces, or GPTK some of the time we should profit enough to call.

Deanglow

08-30-2008, 12:10 AM

#5 (permalink)

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you lose to quads, call

overflow

08-30-2008, 12:17 AM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 356

Last code box in my post should have read:

Code:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,072,575  games    14.349 secs   214,131  games/sec

Board: 2d Jc 2s Ks Qh
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	18.741%  	07.50% 	11.24% 	        230439 	   345399.50   { AdTh }
Hand 1: 	81.259%  	70.02% 	11.24% 	       2151472 	   345404.50   { JJ+, 22, ATs, K2s, Q2s, J2s, ATo, K2o, Q2o, J2o }

yourfather

08-30-2008, 04:37 AM

#7 (permalink)

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I called he had JJ, guhhh.

nutsinho

08-30-2008, 02:50 PM

#8 (permalink)

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i was gonna say that JJ is way his most likely hand. Why didn't you bet the turn here? You fold out most of his range with a turn bet. As played, river is puke-whatever. Not sure a passive donk shoves A2s here, but against a range of JJ/22/A2s youre a 2 to 1 dog so unless you think he's a total spazz or is weak enough to be playing other hands involving a 2 in them, you can probably drop this to the shove. He certainly doesn't show up with AT or T9 like ever.

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Deanglow

08-30-2008, 03:06 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Against a random donk, I wouldn't discount KQ

nutsinho

08-30-2008, 03:17 PM

#10 (permalink)

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kq calls flop?

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yourfather

08-30-2008, 04:22 PM

#11 (permalink)

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I didn't think he would flat from the button too often with JJ+. I had been opening a wide range, not sure if he noticed though.

After he called my flop bet I thought he had a mid pair that he probably wouldn't fold or J10, JQ, JK, AJ and I decided not to barrel the turn. When he minbet I had to call.

He played it so passive until the river I didn't see any boat he could really have. Quad deuces actually did seem more likely than Jacks full.

His line was terrible considering he gets only a minbet from me after the flop most likely unless I hit what I thought was gin.

I think KQ calls the flop here a decent amount of the time as well.

nutsinho

08-30-2008, 04:44 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by yourfather

His line was terrible considering he gets only a minbet from me after the flop most likely unless I hit what I thought was gin.

I think KQ calls the flop here a decent amount of the time as well.

1. I'd say his line was 100% perfect according to the fundamental theorem.

2. I heard passive retards aren't too big on floating.

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yourfather

08-30-2008, 04:48 PM

#13 (permalink)

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1. He lucked into his line working. If I had a random pair or Jx here it doesn't work almost ever.

2. They don't float so much to fire turns and rivers but they do sometimes cuz they think your fos or because they want to hit what they think are their 6 outs.

griffey24

08-30-2008, 05:00 PM

#14 (permalink)

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I think once you check the turn, his line is good.

You aren't checking the turn here with a strong hand. You might check the turn here wtih Kx, but once he min bets you'd for sure raise him for value.

So you either have air on turn, and his minbet could be inducing some kind of bluff, or a value raise. Or you have a draw on turn and likely a weak draw that wasn't strong enough to bet yourself. Obviously he wants to let you get there.

I'm not saying he thought about any of these things when he minbet you. But once you check the turn, a very small bet is prob best given what you're repping.

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25nl, rivered sraight facing shove

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