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200NL - Bluffing 4-flush board

  
 
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XTR1000
Old 05-22-2008, 11:29 PM     Post subject: 200NL - Bluffing 4-flush board #1 (permalink)  
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Fine or spew? I´d appreciate comments on river bet size.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($285.85)
CO ($483.05)
BTN ($197.00)
SB ($170.00)
BB ($224.70)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, SB calls $7, BB calls $6

Flop: ($24, 3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $16, Hero calls $16, SB folds

Turn: ($56, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $38, BB calls $38

River: ($132, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $75
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tarath
Old 05-22-2008, 11:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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tarath
This is spew against an unknown but is a play a make a lot (although generally with air, not with a nice amount of showdown value) with a read. I think evaluating bluffs in a vacuum is rarely constructive. Can you tell us anything about this guy?

I'm also not sure why your bluffing 2 streets here. When the A of diamond peels off we can heavily weight his range towards 1 pair hands which may contain a diamond (ie 77). Our hand has a lot of showdown value. I would check the turn. Then evaluate on the river if I wanted to turn our hand into a bluff. If you had air I would like this a lot better than when you have 10/10. And checking the turn and bluff raising the river is much scarier and likely cheaper than firing the turn and the river.

But really as I said you need a read here. A good player is not going to believe you peeled the flop with the K of diamonds which is all your repping. If the K of diamonds rolled off instead of the A this is a much better play.
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tarath
Old 05-22-2008, 11:39 PM #3 (permalink)  
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tarath
oh and your bet sizing it pretty good i think. I might do 60 on the river.
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