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200NL AJs

  
 
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Dislexsik
Old 10-09-2007, 09:24 PM     Post subject: 200NL AJs #1 (permalink)  
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I dont have HH so ill try to explain it.

200NL
Im open with AcJc from CO and villain (30/11/1.75) 3bets from b utton (his 3bet range is something like TT+, AK,AQs), SB calls wich is a lagtard and i call.


Pot is about 70$ Flop is K36 with 2 clubs so i have the nutflushdraw.Lagtard checks, I check and villain bets 50$, lagtard folds.
Now my question is, if lagtard would have called, is it best to call aswell? When he folds is it good to shove?
 
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bbqsquirrel
Old 10-10-2007, 12:53 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I like your line of reasoning
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benny999
Old 10-10-2007, 08:41 AM #3 (permalink)  
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id raise. more equity for you if you knock one or both out.
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Miffed22001
Old 10-10-2007, 06:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 i might be trying to find more reasons to fold preflop to be honest.
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martindcx1e
Old 10-10-2007, 06:27 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
i might be trying to find more reasons to fold preflop to be honest.
agreed
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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Dislexsik
Old 10-10-2007, 07:58 PM #6 (permalink)  
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i agree, preflop might be bad or borderline, i usually never call this, but this time i had the maniac calling aswell, and we all had +130BB stacks.
If the maniac didnt call i would fold it even with 130BB stacks...
 
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 10-11-2007, 12:02 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 The player on the button doesn't seem very aggressive overall, so i wouldn't count on him firing out another bet on the turn without a pair of Kings or better. I definitely wouldn't expect him to call more money into the pot with worse. Basically your options for a non club turn are going to be much worse than they are on the flop, and a non club turn is most turns.

What % of his range hits the flop (A-K, A-Qs, 10-10+)?

18 combinations of A-Ko, A-Ks
6 combinations of A-Qs
18 combinations of 10-10, J-J, Q-Q
(though with J-J/Q-Q i would expect BTN to check behind a good % of the time, probably close to 100%)
12 combinations of K-K, A-A

Given a reasonable c-bet range, you probably only fold out about 1/3rd of his likely holdings by check/shoving the flop. Though against the range of hands that would call a shove (A-Ko, A-Ks, K-K+), you do have about 35% equity.

Board: Kc 3c 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.138% 65.14% 00.00% 9673 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 34.862% 34.86% 00.00% 5177 0.00 { AcJc }



An EV analysis:


Hero wins 50BB 100% of the time, 33% of the time. (50 * 1.00 * 0.33) = 16.5

Hero loses 120BB 65% of the time, 33% of the time. (120 * 0.65 * 0.33) = -25.7

Hero wins 120BB 35% of the time, 33% of the time. (120 * 0.35 * 0.33) = 13.9

50BB = [(10xBB preflop 3bet * 3players) + (20BB c-bet)], Hero check/shoving the flop and winning the pot uncontested.
120BB = Hero check/shoving the flop and losing/winning the hand when BTN calls.

(16.5 + (-25.7) + 13.9) = 4.7BB


It's +EV given that, due to the relatively shallow stacks, you win a nice sized pot the times villain folds to your check/shove.

This doesn't mean your preflop decision was correct, though. Even with a weak player in the 3bet pot, calling with a hand like A-Js can put you in some tough spots on the flop (like when you hit TP and are faced with a bet).
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