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2/4: three barrels multiway

  
 
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pocketfours
Old 06-14-2009, 11:56 AM     Post subject: 2/4: three barrels multiway #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 16/12/2.5 seemed very solid. My image is fine, 21/18/3.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($465.60)
SB ($463)
Hero (BB) ($510.90)
UTG ($578.10)
MP ($524.50)
CO ($403)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5
UTG calls $4, MP bets $18, 2 folds, SB calls $16, Hero calls $14, UTG calls $14

Flop: ($72) 2, Q, 3 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $55, 1 fold, MP calls $55, 1 fold

Turn: ($182) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $120, MP calls $120

River: ($422) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $317.90 (All-In)...
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 06-14-2009, 01:29 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I am not familiar with PT, but I assume the nrs are suggesting he is very tight aggressive preflop.

Villain reminds me a little of myself. He probably does not punish limpers too much, as this is getting too obvious nowadays and his stats are so low. His range for raising is here is often AQ+, 66+ so from an Equity perspective we are behind to all but AK.

If I am to Weight his range after calling your donk bet it is heavily towards AQ, but also QQ, KK, AA. All these hands are not afraid of getting drawn out, and a reraise is building the pot for your 22, 33.

Since I believe he puts you on QJ+ 22, 33 he probably doesnt like his hand too much as his range is weaker than yours. When he still calls turn I feel you are getting outplayed here by AA, KK, QQ, AQ.

The river doesnt really change anything, because I doubt very much he has a diamond draw in your in your range. But your all-in move strongly suggest you had 22, 33 (not QJ, KQ) and he may very well fold AQ, although he might still call KK, AA here and definitely QQ.

Without doing the maths you need about 40% fold equity to make your river bet EV+. (Sorry saxton). I dont know his tendencies post-flop, but I guess you at least have 30%, but I am not sure its over 40%.

Personally, I think this is spew, since his range is very strong preflop. But you did a decent job representing the set of ducks and treys. Maybe a check-call, check-raise line would have done the job better.

Another point is that you have a good image and therefore I doubt he has 44-JJ in your range when donking this flop. If he thinks like this his call on the river is a mistake with AQ, KK, AA. The chances of him having QQ is absolutely possibly after the turn as he can easily get it all in on the river.

I find it very interesting to see this hand and a player with much more guts and balls than myself. How do you people estimate OPs Fold Equity on river? Do you think he calls with AQ, KK, AA and how often?
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pocketfours
Old 06-14-2009, 04:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Thanks for a very good response SP.

My donkbet on the flop is very marginal. I guess I liked my pair and didn't want to c/f. As you said, after villain calls flop I put his range on KQ+, QQ+. After he calls the turn it's probably AQ/QQ+.

On the turn I hit a good draw and again didn't feel like I would want to c/f. There's no way I can profitably c/c of course. I also feel like he would not fold AA to a c/rai, just because that's such a common semibluff line.

What does villain think his perceived range is? Surely he must think it's at least AQ+ when he calls the turn. Does he think I expect him to fold that? That's hard to say.

If he thinks I'm bluffing then what does he put me on? 45s? Even that would often stop betting in hopes for a free river. People don't turn made hands into bluffs all that often at 400nl. I also don't think he would expect me to lead flop with 44-JJ as you said yourself.

I don't think you can profitably stack off with AA for 130BB against a good player in a 4 way 2bet pot with a dry flop. I know I wouldn't. So I'm expecting him to fold AQ/KK/AA and call with QQ.

3 combos of QQ vs 6 AA + 6 KK + 9 AQ. 3/24 = he calls 12,5% of the time if my range estimation and reads are correct.

Then again this might all be spew, which is why I posted
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 06-14-2009, 04:14 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I doubt he folds KK, AA, AQ 100%, so your Fold Equity estimated to 87,5% is way too high IMO. But I agree that your FE is better than 40% at this level.

I am not familiar with these higher stakes, but at 100 NL FE is way lower versus his range and at lower stakes it drops even lower.

At first it looked very spewy, but now I believe the shove is very good- especially since we have virtually no Equity.
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Old 06-14-2009, 05:08 PM #5 (permalink)  
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you're polarizing your range to sets (I guess A5s also) and air
so KQ = AA here if he decides to hero call you

he also has a queen high diamond draw on the turn some of the time so he could easily call with KdQd on the turn or even QdJd if it's in his PF range
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bigspenda73
Old 06-14-2009, 06:28 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 QJdd/KQdd/AQdd need to be in his calling range
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 06-15-2009, 02:01 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 flop bet is definitely good every so often (honestly you shouldnt really value lead this specific flop against regs, only bluff sometimes). The rest is meh. You kind of have to lead the turn cause i dont know if the c/r gets an overpair or AQ off. And also since your essentially assured seeing the river a bet is essential. River bet is also pretty good.

So i guess what im trying to say is well played.
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pocketfours
Old 06-15-2009, 05:36 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
QJdd/KQdd/AQdd need to be in his calling range
This wasn't the type of guy who would raise QJs pre imo.
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pocketfours
Old 06-15-2009, 05:42 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
flop bet is definitely good every so often (honestly you shouldnt really value lead this specific flop against regs, only bluff sometimes). The rest is meh. You kind of have to lead the turn cause i dont know if the c/r gets an overpair or AQ off. And also since your essentially assured seeing the river a bet is essential. River bet is also pretty good.

So i guess what im trying to say is well played.
Thanks. I would also clearly bet with a set and not go for a c/r, especially against this guy who probably pc the turn.
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