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2/4 - KTs flops big, facing heat 170bb deep

  
 
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zook
Old 08-26-2008, 06:30 PM     Post subject: 2/4 - KTs flops big, facing heat 170bb deep #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is running 20/11/2.8 and this is the first time we've played together but we've developed some history in just a few orbits. He donked into me on a KT8 two-tone flop, I called and folded to his pot-sized turn donk on a blank. He's also raised my cbet on an A53 two-tone flop and I folded. I've been active and he's seen me 5bet shove 65s so he might think I'm crazy aggro spewy.

I usually have no problem getting it in on this flop but a 3bet seemed awkward with these stack sizes. Thoughts on flop and turn play?

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saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($718.55)
UTG ($787.50)
MP ($400.00)
Hero (CO) ($888.50)
Button ($80.00)
SB ($684.00)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10 K
UTG raises to $14.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $14.00, 1 fold, SB calls $12.00, 1 fold

Flop: ($46.00) 2 K 7 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $32.00, Hero calls $32.00, SB raises to $116.00, 1 fold, Hero calls $84.00

Turn: ($310.00) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $284.00, Hero... (SB has $270 behind)
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griffey24
Old 08-26-2008, 06:55 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 He's raising UTG's cont bet into two players on a K high flop.... I can't imagine not giving him respect on this c/r and on this potish turn follow through.

Honestly... when I think of his range here, I feel like a flop fold might even be good (easier for me to say this now, I'd prob rarely do it in practice). I really feel like this is 222/777 a large portion of the time, and we have pretty bad reverse implied odds on any turn K or T.

As played, I'd prob just drop it on turn.

I feel like hands like this (tp/wk + FD) have a lot more value when we're the aggressor against a continuation bettor (who has lots of air/one pair hands in their range) than in this kind of spot where lots of sets are in their range. The bonus of having TP here gives us an illusion of having a monster, when really on the turn our hand is mostly no better than a draw.
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ATOTHEC101
Old 08-26-2008, 07:47 PM #3 (permalink)  
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yeah i played a hand very similiar to this the other day except with kqs on a k104 flop, i folded to his overbet shove (shortstack had already moved in) and hed flopped a set of 10s. In your situation id peel the flop hoping he either checks it down or that we make our flush. Turns a definite fold.
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Ragnar4
Old 08-27-2008, 01:24 AM #4 (permalink)  
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What's wrong with hero snapshoves flop?
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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griffey24
Old 08-27-2008, 02:04 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
What's wrong with hero snapshoves flop?
I think you'd be hard pressed to find a range of hands we're ahead of, to this kind of flop action.

Board: 2h Kc 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.570% 57.54% 00.03% 5127 2.50 { 77, 22, AhJh, Kd7d, QhJh }
Hand 1: 42.430% 42.40% 00.03% 3778 2.50 { KhTh }


I think QhJh is pushing it a bit too
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Da GOAT
Old 08-27-2008, 08:11 AM #6 (permalink)  
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i think griffeys analysis is spot on
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nutsinho
Old 08-27-2008, 04:25 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 i think u played it well assuming u folded turn
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bode
Old 08-27-2008, 05:06 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
What's wrong with hero snapshoves flop?
I think you'd be hard pressed to find a range of hands we're ahead of, to this kind of flop action.

Board: 2h Kc 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.570% 57.54% 00.03% 5127 2.50 { 77, 22, AhJh, Kd7d, QhJh }
Hand 1: 42.430% 42.40% 00.03% 3778 2.50 { KhTh }


I think QhJh is pushing it a bit too
'
i couldnt do a proper EV equation to save my life, but with the dead money in the pot + FE this is surely a +EV shove, right? Shouldnt AK be in his range alot here too, even if it is only 1/2 the combos?
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reprisal
Old 08-27-2008, 08:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bode
i couldnt do a proper EV equation to save my life, but with the dead money in the pot + FE this is surely a +EV shove, right? Shouldnt AK be in his range alot here too, even if it is only 1/2 the combos?
Hero is 170BB deep w/ Villian. If this villian is trying to get all the money in the middle w/ TPTK this deep then its highly likely he'd squeeze here .
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