2/4 deep: reverse clairvoyance

**pocketfours** · 03-12-2010 06:37 AM

Villain is 24/20/3.4 laggy reg with 11% 3bet over significant sample. I'm expecting him to assume that I would not flat AA/KK pre this deep.

SB ($849)
BB ($1722)
UTG ($142)
MP ($445.20)
Hero (CO) ($829.30)
Button ($983.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K

, Q

2 folds, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, SB raises to $46, 1 fold, Hero calls $32

Flop: ($96) 7

, 7

(2 players)
SB bets $56, Hero calls $56

Turn: ($208) 4

(2 players)
SB bets $168, Hero calls $168

River: ($544) 9

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $120 ($439 behind).

**surviva316** · 03-12-2010 07:14 AM

well considering these three factors:

1) i'm a scared money 100nl lag reg

2) i check fold like everything here if i'm villain

3) i'm drunk as fuck right now

this just seems like PURE genius to me.

**Irisheyes** · 03-12-2010 09:20 AM

I don't really understand how your turn call can ever be profitable? He still has 99+/AK in his range and if he's bluffing the turn with any high frequency (which I think he is) then I'd expect him to bluff the river too since it's going to take 3 streets to take you off 88.

**pocketfours** · 03-12-2010 10:38 AM

I think he has a ridiculous amount of air in his range and I don't think he is going to bluff the river very likely at all not expecting me to fold the top of my range in a clairvoyance game. Also I have blockers.

**griffey24** · 03-12-2010 01:25 PM

If you had hands like 55-JJ (excluding 99), would you really be betting this river?

I feel like this is a board/spot vs his polarized range that you generally have very little value betting range on this river. He can also easily have some pair here that he just decided to pot control, and will now c/c.

**nutsinho** · 03-12-2010 03:20 PM

he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?

**griffey24** · 03-12-2010 03:48 PM

P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?

**IowaSkinsFan** · 03-12-2010 05:49 PM

Yeah just shove. If he called the shove it would be insane, its amazing you got to this spot with a bluff in the first place.

**pocketfours** · 03-12-2010 10:25 PM

Originally Posted by griffey24

P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?

Yes of course I am, makes no sense to b/f the nuts.

**pocketfours** · 03-12-2010 10:43 PM

Originally Posted by nutsinho

he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?

I guess I never thought that a bigger bet makes a fold more likely against experienced players. I just try to make my bets as credible as possible. With TT/JJ I would want to tempt him so that's my bet with this hand as well.

I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.

**Silly String** · 03-16-2010 04:12 PM

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.

$35 is optimal to induce?? It can't be optimal as a value bet b/c it is too little value for the risk, right?

**tstrout** · 03-16-2010 09:40 PM

He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.

**nutsinho** · 03-17-2010 12:00 AM

Originally Posted by tstrout

He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.

well youre a fucken sicko

**Numbr2intheWorld** · 03-17-2010 01:03 AM

I really hate double floating when there's pot behind

03-12-2010 06:37 AM #1
pocketfours View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Mar 2007 Posts 2,570 Location Lighting sweet moneys on fire.	2/4 deep: reverse clairvoyance Villain is 24/20/3.4 laggy reg with 11% 3bet over significant sample. I'm expecting him to assume that I would not flat AA/KK pre this deep. SB ($849) BB ($1722) UTG ($142) MP ($445.20) Hero (CO) ($829.30) Button ($983.30) Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q 2 folds, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, SB raises to $46, 1 fold, Hero calls $32 Flop: ($96) 7, 7, 7 (2 players) SB bets $56, Hero calls $56 Turn: ($208) 4 (2 players) SB bets $168, Hero calls $168 River: ($544) 9 (2 players) SB checks, Hero bets $120 ($439 behind).

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03-12-2010 07:14 AM #2
surviva316 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Visit Homepage Join Date Feb 2009 Posts 2,797 Location missing deadlines, pissing people off, frustrating myself	well considering these three factors: 1) i'm a scared money 100nl lag reg 2) i check fold like everything here if i'm villain 3) i'm drunk as fuck right now this just seems like PURE genius to me.
	Once upon a time, in some out of the way corner of that universe which is dispersed into numberless twinkling solar systems, there was a star upon which clever beasts invented knowing.
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03-12-2010 09:20 AM #3
Irisheyes View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jun 2005 Posts 4,391 Location over there	I don't really understand how your turn call can ever be profitable? He still has 99+/AK in his range and if he's bluffing the turn with any high frequency (which I think he is) then I'd expect him to bluff the river too since it's going to take 3 streets to take you off 88.

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03-12-2010 10:38 AM #4
pocketfours View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Mar 2007 Posts 2,570 Location Lighting sweet moneys on fire.	I think he has a ridiculous amount of air in his range and I don't think he is going to bluff the river very likely at all not expecting me to fold the top of my range in a clairvoyance game. Also I have blockers.
	Last edited by pocketfours; 03-12-2010 at 10:57 AM.
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03-12-2010 01:25 PM #5
griffey24 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2006 Posts 4,932 Location Toronto'ish	If you had hands like 55-JJ (excluding 99), would you really be betting this river? I feel like this is a board/spot vs his polarized range that you generally have very little value betting range on this river. He can also easily have some pair here that he just decided to pot control, and will now c/c.
	Originally Posted by Jay-Z I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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2/4 deep: reverse clairvoyance

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2/4 deep: reverse clairvoyance

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03-12-2010 03:20 PM #6
nutsinho View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2005 Posts 3,840 Location flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt	he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?
	My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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03-12-2010 03:48 PM #7
griffey24 View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2006 Posts 4,932 Location Toronto'ish	P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?
	Originally Posted by Jay-Z I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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03-12-2010 05:49 PM #8
IowaSkinsFan View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Oct 2004 Posts 8,895	Yeah just shove. If he called the shove it would be insane, its amazing you got to this spot with a bluff in the first place.
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03-12-2010 10:25 PM #9
pocketfours View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Mar 2007 Posts 2,570 Location Lighting sweet moneys on fire.	Originally Posted by griffey24 P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing? Yes of course I am, makes no sense to b/f the nuts.

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03-12-2010 10:43 PM #10
pocketfours View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Mar 2007 Posts 2,570 Location Lighting sweet moneys on fire.	Originally Posted by nutsinho he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate? I guess I never thought that a bigger bet makes a fold more likely against experienced players. I just try to make my bets as credible as possible. With TT/JJ I would want to tempt him so that's my bet with this hand as well. I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.

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03-16-2010 04:12 PM #11
Silly String View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Jul 2005 Posts 1,916 Location KC, MO	Originally Posted by pocketfours I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory. $35 is optimal to induce?? It can't be optimal as a value bet b/c it is too little value for the risk, right?
	Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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03-16-2010 09:40 PM #12
tstrout View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Feb 2010 Posts 68	He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.

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03-17-2010 12:00 AM #13
nutsinho View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Sep 2005 Posts 3,840 Location flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt	Originally Posted by tstrout He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here. well youre a fucken sicko
	My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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03-17-2010 01:03 AM #14
Numbr2intheWorld View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date Aug 2006 Posts 4,534	I really hate double floating when there's pot behind
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