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pocketfours
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03-12-2010, 07:37 AM
Post subject: 2/4 deep: reverse clairvoyance
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,133
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Villain is 24/20/3.4 laggy reg with 11% 3bet over significant sample. I'm expecting him to assume that I would not flat AA/KK pre this deep.
SB ($849)
BB ($1722)
UTG ($142)
MP ($445.20)
Hero (CO) ($829.30)
Button ($983.30)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K , Q
2 folds, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, SB raises to $46, 1 fold, Hero calls $32
Flop: ($96) 7 , 7 , 7 (2 players)
SB bets $56, Hero calls $56
Turn: ($208) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $168, Hero calls $168
River: ($544) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $120 ($439 behind).
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: I hope you make me eat my words 'cause my words is pussy, a-pussah-pussay!
Posts: 1,601
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well considering these three factors:
1) i'm a scared money 100nl lag reg
2) i check fold like everything here if i'm villain
3) i'm drunk as fuck right now
this just seems like PURE genius to me.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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I don't really understand how your turn call can ever be profitable? He still has 99+/AK in his range and if he's bluffing the turn with any high frequency (which I think he is) then I'd expect him to bluff the river too since it's going to take 3 streets to take you off 88.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,133
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I think he has a ridiculous amount of air in his range and I don't think he is going to bluff the river very likely at all not expecting me to fold the top of my range in a clairvoyance game. Also I have blockers.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,599
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If you had hands like 55-JJ (excluding 99), would you really be betting this river?
I feel like this is a board/spot vs his polarized range that you generally have very little value betting range on this river. He can also easily have some pair here that he just decided to pot control, and will now c/c.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,599
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P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,147
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Yeah just shove. If he called the shove it would be insane, its amazing you got to this spot with a bluff in the first place.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
P4's - if you DO bet TT like this or something on the river. Are you calling a shove after this sizing?
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Yes of course I am, makes no sense to b/f the nuts.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,133
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Quote:
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he appears to not have a check/call range vs any reasonably sized bet. why tempt him to reevaluate?
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I guess I never thought that a bigger bet makes a fold more likely against experienced players. I just try to make my bets as credible as possible. With TT/JJ I would want to tempt him so that's my bet with this hand as well.
I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours
I actually think something like $35 is optimal with TT/JJ so $120 is already clearly exploitative territory.
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$35 is optimal to induce?? It can't be optimal as a value bet b/c it is too little value for the risk, right?
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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tstrout
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 68
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He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tstrout
He looks to be checking to induce a bluff; I would call your tiny bet with AK, AQ without hesitation here.
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well youre a fucken sicko
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,539
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I really hate double floating when there's pot behind
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