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zook
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02-09-2009, 01:31 AM
Post subject: 2/4 - AKo, good price on ugly river
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Villain is a reg running 22/17/3, we don't have too much history besides pre-flop battling, he seems tightish/solid. I've never noticed him donk, hem says 8%. CO is a fish.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
Hero (MP) ($418)
CO ($69.70)
Button ($490.45)
SB ($76)
BB ($902.75)
UTG ($492.75)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K , A
1 fold, Hero raises to $14, CO calls $14, Button calls $14, 1 fold, BB calls $10
Flop: ($58) A, 2 , 7 (4 players)
BB bets $40, Hero calls $40, CO raises to $55.70 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls $15.70, Hero calls $15.70
Turn: ($225.10) K (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, Hero bets $140, BB calls $140
River: ($505.10) 5 (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB bets $211, Hero...
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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Seemed he was getting pretty good odds to peel a flop after you raised and two other players called in front of him. I could see a 22/17 having all sorts of suited connectors and gappers here. Do you know if he likes to c/r or b/3b with his draws? If he has a FD, he can't really bet the turn since if he gets raised he has to toss his hand, plus he has to assume you are pretty strong if you flat his flop donk w/ 2 players behind you. Looks like he has a flush here really often ...
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thizzSantaCruz
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Santa Cruz
Posts: 894
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What a strange line, is he stationy enough to check/call that turn with a flush draw?
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz
is he stationy enough to check/call that turn with a flush draw?
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I have no idea.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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Strange play by him, we even have the Kc so it can't be a K hi flush draw that c/c turn because he turned a purrr...
id still fold though and take a note when i see his flush
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I'd fold, but mostly because its a protected pot.
If it wasn't protected I'd definitely be tempted to call here.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
I'd fold, but mostly because its a protected pot.
If it wasn't protected I'd definitely be tempted to call here.
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Why does the fact that it's a protected pot matter here? Side pot is $280, still worth fighting for. And I'm sure I'm ahead of CO fish's range.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
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Yah I guess so, but just feel like most people would be much less likely to bluff given that its protected.
I also can't think of many hands that would donk this flop, c/c turn and lead this river that we beat unless he's blocking with A7 or something..
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Bet more money on the turn?
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
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Not sure if it has been mentioned, but your hand looks a lot like what it is. You called his donk into 4 players with two still left to act behind you, one being a shortdonk. You then bet the turn when he checks to you despite the strength he showed on the flop. Then he bets into you on the river with a bet that really shouldn't get a lot of folds.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
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He could be making a weird blocking bet type thing with A-Q or a worse aces up. If he has aces up, he may not want to announce his hand by betting strongly into you twice in a protected pot, and/or is concerned that you may have A-K, then wants to prevent you from checking behind with a worse ace, knowing you won't raise with A-K. It's too hard to put him solidly on a flush to fold here, particularly since he would've had to have made a terrible call on the turn. If he's actually check-calling the turn with a flush draw, his range is certainly wider than just flush draws / flushes with this action.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
Not sure if it has been mentioned, but your hand looks a lot like what it is. You called his donk into 4 players with two still left to act behind you, one being a shortdonk. You then bet the turn when he checks to you despite the strength he showed on the flop. Then he bets into you on the river with a bet that really shouldn't get a lot of folds.
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Not so much. His hand looks more like A-T, A-J or A-Q than A-K. The flop lead, then turn check is not an especially strong play from him, and would certainly induce a bet from worse than A-K.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
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Location: Montreal
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At/AJ/AQ leading flop, c/c turn, and 2/5th potting a bad river? Why...
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
It's too hard to put him solidly on a flush to fold here, particularly since he would've had to have made a terrible call on the turn.
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How is the turn call terrible with a strong flush draw? With two broadways on the board, he could easily have other outs as well.
Hence, I think a bigger turn bet is in order. Force him to put in more money bad and eliminate difficult river decisions.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
At/AJ/AQ leading flop, c/c turn, and 2/5th potting a bad river? Why...
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People play bad, even regs. Particularly when you get sucked into an out-of-control pot. He could be confused and revert back to his nautural online poker wiring, BET!
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pocketfours
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Moderator
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Why is his bet small? He is betting very close to what we have left. Sure is no blocking bet, cmon now.
I think flipping a coin would be pretty good here. River is going to cost you $20 avg if you always flip on club river. It will also cut down on his IO.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
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What I normally do here is find out if he had odds to call my turn bet with a FD and if he didn't I pay him off and if he did then I fold it. He needs 27% on this turn and I don't think he was getting it in good even with QcJc so I guess call.
I have no idea if this reasoning is correct though.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
What I normally do here is find out if he had odds to call my turn bet with a FD and if he didn't I pay him off and if he did then I fold it. He needs 27% on this turn and I don't think he was getting it in good even with QcJc so I guess call.
I have no idea if this reasoning is correct though.
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This is solid thinking, but it is possible to increase your EV by making even better decisions.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Well, i use this reasoning for retards who I can't put on ranges easily. Against a reg I think we can think about what he's betting on the river then simply make a pot odds call.
I think having a set/AK is out of his range here. His flop leading range is either going to be for value or semibluff, so a hand like AJ I could see leading and maybe even any ace I have no idea. Obviously he could be leading the FD although I don't know if it would any sense to do so multiway here with a shortstack donk in the pot. I don't know if its possible for him to 3bet to isolate on the flop after guy went all in so that could keep A2 and A7 in his range, although unlikely.
His turn calling range includes Adxd, QcJc, JcTc, as well as A2 and A7 as he probably puts you on AJ+. His river leading range for value could be Ad5d or the missed diamond draw representing the club draw but it doesn't make too much sense given how much you've shown to like your hand.
In the end I would probably tilt call thinking that it can't be too bad here given we don't need to win too often on the river for it to be correct. With that I think it might not matter what we do and the 'flipping the coin' option is a great idea.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
What I normally do here is find out if he had odds to call my turn bet with a FD and if he didn't I pay him off and if he did then I fold it. He needs 27% on this turn and I don't think he was getting it in good even with QcJc so I guess call.
I have no idea if this reasoning is correct though.
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Isn't this reasoning somewhat flawed if we take into account his implied odds.
If you're calling this river bet, that means he actually had (140+225+211):140 pot odds on his call. With implied odds he's getting 4.11:1 on his call and only needs to hit 19.5% of the time.
So I'm not sure if just looking at direct odds on his turn call is enough to make this kind of river call decision, when the river call in itself makes his turn call correct.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
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Another obvious thing is that we have a flush here like never and always folding our whole range for these odds is pretty disgusting.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
At/AJ/AQ leading flop, c/c turn, and 2/5th potting a bad river? Why...
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I meant zook's hand looks more like A-T, A-J or A-Q than A-K, but it's definitely possible his opponent is making a dumb play with one of these hands too.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pocketfours
Another obvious thing is that we have a flush here like never and always folding our whole range for these odds is pretty disgusting.
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You don't really need to examine this spot theoretically because you see this sort of thing happen 1 out of every half million hands it seems.
I'd fold here, but its certainly a little close.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
Not sure if it has been mentioned, but your hand looks a lot like what it is. You called his donk into 4 players with two still left to act behind you, one being a shortdonk. You then bet the turn when he checks to you despite the strength he showed on the flop. Then he bets into you on the river with a bet that really shouldn't get a lot of folds.
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Not so much. His hand looks more like A-T, A-J or A-Q than A-K. The flop lead, then turn check is not an especially strong play from him, and would certainly induce a bet from worse than A-K. |
Yeah that's a good point. But at the same time, wouldn't he probably realize we take a lot of those out of his range due to the lack of a squeeze preflop? Making us more likely to think our hand is good?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
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snapfoldaments
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
What I normally do here is find out if he had odds to call my turn bet with a FD and if he didn't I pay him off and if he did then I fold it. He needs 27% on this turn and I don't think he was getting it in good even with QcJc so I guess call.
I have no idea if this reasoning is correct though.
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Isn't this reasoning somewhat flawed if we take into account his implied odds.
If you're calling this river bet, that means he actually had (140+225+211):140 pot odds on his call. With implied odds he's getting 4.11:1 on his call and only needs to hit 19.5% of the time.
So I'm not sure if just looking at direct odds on his turn call is enough to make this kind of river call decision, when the river call in itself makes his turn call correct. |
No, I meant to include implied odds too; I miscalculated the numbers for some reason which would make it a fold.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
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I folded, which is a pretty big deal for me since I'm generally a dumbass station.
Villain had A 5.
HYACHACHACHACHACHACHACHACHACHACHACHACHACHA
Who thinks villain's river bet isn't retarded?
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
I also can't think of many hands that would donk this flop, c/c turn and lead this river that we beat unless he's blocking with A7 or something..
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A7, A5.. same thing!
Do you think his bet is a blocking bet or a bluff or what?
I honestly don't think we hardly ever see A5 or A7 here that often, so I still think a fold is reasonable here.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
I also can't think of many hands that would donk this flop, c/c turn and lead this river that we beat unless he's blocking with A7 or something..
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A7, A5.. same thing!
Do you think his bet is a blocking bet or a bluff or what?
I honestly don't think we hardly ever see A5 or A7 here that often, so I still think a fold is reasonable here. |
I'm not sure. I think flushes are actually a relatively small portion of his range with the turn check-call, then the river bet size. Although, his turn call with A-5 (and even his flop lead to a lesser extent) is dogshit bad since zook is never bluffing, and isn't really a play you can expect him to make necessarily.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
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I guess he's just trying to get value from A9-AQ. Expert play.
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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