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mcatdog
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05-12-2006, 10:18 PM
Post subject: 100NL squeeze play vs. Demiparadigm
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
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Demiparadigm sat down at my table about four orbits ago, and introduced himself to me. We'd been chatting about various bullshit and meanwhile he'd been running his usual 45/25 game and raising my big blind every single orbit. I've been waiting for a good chance to re-pop him, but every time I've been in the big blind, the numbers on my hole cards have added up to fewer than eleven.
Some more background: The player between Demiparadigm and me is a very bad LAG. An orbit ago I had $250, but re-popped the LAG pre-flop and had to fold AA on the flop to an obvious set (no one knows that I had AA). The very next hand, I came over the top of an aggressive $80 stack and two callers with JJ, and doubled up his KK when I felt pot committed to call his shove. So I don't really know what Demi thinks of me, but I'm guessing he knows that I'm capable of a move, especially against him. A few hands later we get to this hand. Effective stacks are $120.
It's folded to Demi who raises to $4 for the eleventeenth time in a row, and the bad player between us calls. I make it $20 with A T . Demi thinks and calls.
The flop is Q Q 6, I bet $30, Demi thinks and calls. I'm all set to check-fold the turn, but it's the best card in the deck for me, the A . Should I shove my last $70 into the pot?
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zenbitz
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No option for check/call???
What could he have that beats AAQQT that he is folding for $70 more?
Is he folding a Q? No.
Is he folding AJ or AK? No.
The only reason to bet here is if you think you are ahead AND that he will call you down with a weak A or 6 or worse club draw. I think any player who calls you down with a weak hand like that, will bet it when you show weakness and check. If not, there's always the river.
I would check, with the anticiaption of getting all my chips in when he bets. He might even check behind, which is awesome, you have 4 outs to a near-nut boat, and 8 outs to the 3rd nut flush.
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mcatdog
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I don't think he has AJ or AK here ever, let alone a hand with a six in it. But he could very easily have KK or JJ with a club, and thought I was full of shit on the flop. If he has one of those hands it's correct to go all-in.
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zenbitz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
I don't think he has AJ or AK here ever, let alone a hand with a six in it. But he could very easily have KK or JJ with a club, and thought I was full of shit on the flop. If he has one of those hands it's correct to go all-in.
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I think he's more likely to have absolute garbage and floating you than KK (certainly, with no 3-bet preflop) or even JJ... which he might 3 bet.
Here is how I think about it:
1) He has a club - probably all your money is going in no matter what.
2) He has a Q - probably all your money is going in no matter what.
3) He has an A with no club ... I think a good aggressive player bets the turn here, which means you are going a/i. He might get tricky if he thinks you have A or club hand he has kicker issues
4) He has a J+ high flush, or boat - you are drawing to 4 outs - case Q if he has one. So betting is clearly wrong (although all your money is going in, prolly)
*5) He has junk - he will definilty fold to your bet, but might bet.
*6) He has KK/JJ no club - he will possibly fold to your turn bet, but might bet.
The key is your T of clubs. If he has a weak draw, (club < T) then you WANT to give him a free card - he is drawing dead (unless he has a 6, then he has 2 outs).
If he has a strong draw (club > T), he will probably semi-bluff, so you get the money in anyway (although perhaps YOU are drawing dead - to say QdKc)
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
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I think this a clear turn check. What worse hands will call if you push?
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johnnyBuz
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Flush
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ive seen this term a lot lately. what is "Floating?" is it just bluffing with air?
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Liter of cola.
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midas06
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Floating = cold calling the flop/turn
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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Floating is calling a flop or turn bet with marginal to nothing and bluffing the turn or river against an obviously marginal (but better) hand.
As for this its a clear check fold IMO.
He either had a draw or a queen. On the turn he almost assuredly has a strong hand that he won't lay down for an additional 70 dollars.
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bdawg56kg
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
As for this its a clear check fold IMO.
He either had a draw or a queen. On the turn he almost assuredly has a strong hand that he won't lay down for an additional 70 dollars.
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This is simply not true. Pocket pairs and air are all in demi's range.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
As for this its a clear check fold IMO.
He either had a draw or a queen. On the turn he almost assuredly has a strong hand that he won't lay down for an additional 70 dollars.
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This is simply not true. Pocket pairs and air are all in demi's range. |
Ok mcat's a fairly conservative player right? If demi doesn't read a 3bet from a conservative player out of position as strength, what does he read it as? Then he gets half the effective stack in on the flop. This would be a really dumb float unless mcat had been playing very aggressively prior to this hand.
Pocket pair? Maybe. But I just don't see air here. Even from demi.
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bdawg56kg
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Demi's not stupid. He knows he's been playing VERY lag, so people will play back at him. He also knows hero is a thinking player, so he doesn't need a premium hand to play back. Unless hero has a pp, that flop likely missed him, so demi can call w/position and if turn blanks, hero will most likely check, demi shoves, and takes down the pot a large % of the time.
The point is, given that turn card and the fact that we're up against a super lag, plus the huge pot size, there's almost no way to get away from our hand.
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Renton
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
there's almost no way to get away from our hand.
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This is exactly why I don't think demi would call the flop bet without two 's or a Q.
The "float paired flop, bet checked turn" play doesn't work too well when 1/2 the effective stacks are in the middle.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Ok mcat's a fairly conservative player right?
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Wrong, I 3-bet fairly often against aggressive late position raisers. Probably too often. Anyway thanks for the reassurance bdawg, I didn't think I could lay it down either.
If we're committed to getting all-in here, I'm still not convinced that checking is better than shoving. If Demiparadigm has air, clearly checking is better because he's drawing dead. But if he has a pocket pair, I really think I have a better chance of getting paid off if I shove the turn than if I shove the river. He might think I'm just trying to use the ace as a scare card. Whereas if I shove the river after it checks through, I might as well be playing with my hand face up in my opinion.
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Originally Posted by Renton
He either had a draw or two queens.
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FYP
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Renton
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If I were you I would shift your 3-betting tendencies from the blinds to the button and cutoff.
If I am gonna protect my blinds, I usually just call (unless I am going for a tourney re-steal).
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dsaxton
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Probably check, hope he checks behind, and fold if he goes all-in. Certainly he "can" be calling the flop with nothing, but he usually has either a Q or a club draw.
I think this hand is an interesting example of how a single mistake can compound itself over several streets. You reraised preflop out of position with a marginal hand that has very little postflop value, had to essentially bluff the flop because of the now swollen pot, then even after making your hand, you're forced to check because it's so marginal in relation to the board that a worse hand will never call. Just call preflop.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
You reraised preflop out of position with a marginal hand that has very little postflop value...just call preflop.
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Why would I want to see a three-way flop out of position with a hand that has very little postflop value? I think I'm better off getting more money in pre-flop, because AT crushes the range of hands Demiparadigm opens with from the button. At least 80% of the time it goes fold-fold and I take down a 10 dollar pot right there. Once the cold caller bloated the pot with his call, I think you and Renton are insane to suggest that the re-raise isn't +EV (provided I can play well post-flop, which I clearly didn't in this hand).
I think my best chance to get away from the hand was to just check-fold the flop. Just because Demi is raising with suited trash doesn't mean he's calling $16 more with it. Once he calls me, I'm almost certainly demolished by his range of hands. My move didn't work, he happened to have a hand this time, I should just check-fold unless the flop hits me hard.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
because AT crushes the range of hands Demiparadigm opens with from the button.
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i understand what you are saying, but AT doesn't crush any range of hands.
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Lukie
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Quote:
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because AT crushes the range of hands Demiparadigm opens with from the button but his lagginess pissed me off enough to the point where he put $4 in the pot with position, I put $20 in the pot out of position with a really crappy hand where I'm only getting action when I'm dominated and will be put into a shitty spot on any flop if I c-bet and don't take it down.
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fyp
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Lukie
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as far as the actual hand, I'm torn between check/folding and check/calling. I'd probably just flip a coin.
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Lukie
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Quote:
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At least 80% of the time it goes fold-fold and I take down a 10 dollar pot right there.
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then it's a good bet
I think it's possible that you are overestimating that percentage, however.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
I'm only getting action when I'm dominated
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
I think it's possible that you are overestimating that percentage, however.
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Against Demiparadigm, it's impossible for both of these statements to be true.
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jackvance
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My take on floating:
It's more of a way to play. You need some more or less ABC poker players at your table - either that or predictable players (whether they are Lagg or Tagg or whatever), and it's best if you're bigstacked (200BB+). So then you start calling their preflop raises with marginal hands.. how marginal depends on how "hard" you want to float.
Then you see a flop. If you hit a pair or a draw, you'll call another raise, even against the odds. Or if you sense they missed the flop, you can take a stab at it - usually with "something" though (draw, any pair,..).
This mainly works on the implied odds you get from annoying your opponents. That they want to call you down (that one time you have it), or bluff you out with air because they think you are bluffing a lot too. If you're facing a floater and you stay calm and can make laydowns when needed, they shouldn't be a problem.
A lot of people will get riled up by this though. It knocks them out of their ABC poker game. What you're doing "shouldn't be working"! Because of this, my game is evolving more and more towards these kinds of tactics (floating/Lagg).. there's really no faster way to make money if you can do it right.. Do it wrong though, and you're toast.. and you need to be able to take the inherent variance, although this can be kept to a minimum (unless you want to hardcore float with air a lot) with adequate reads.
For me so far it has worked like a charm at 10NL and 20NL. Higher up we'll have to see  (for clarification, 10NL and 20NL at unibet where I play is filled with Taggs and Tpass's.. not the loose bunch that may be at other sites)
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jackvance
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Oh and about the actual hand.. I check/call it from there. I'm not laying this down vs a super-Lagg with such a big pot, air is too big of a chance.. and if I shove it, I'm only folding out the weaker hands. If I check, a weaker hand might try to fold me out.
I really don't see the point in pushing here..
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dsaxton
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Why would I want to see a three-way flop out of position with a hand that has very little postflop value? I think I'm better off getting more money in pre-flop, because AT crushes the range of hands Demiparadigm opens with from the button. At least 80% of the time it goes fold-fold and I take down a 10 dollar pot right there. Once the cold caller bloated the pot with his call, I think you and Renton are insane to suggest that the re-raise isn't +EV (provided I can play well post-flop, which I clearly didn't in this hand).
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You call because you're in the blinds, you're getting good pot odds, and it's a decent hand. You don't reraise because it creates a big pot with a marginal hand when you're out of position.
So what if he's raising with a lot of hands? There's still almost no value in this play.
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bluey
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Flush
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is demi really that lagg?
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BR: $.1k
Goal 2: July 1 $10k
IIbeatsUU: lol u raised with that?
you mini raised, therefore you desereve whatever you get....
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mcatdog
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From the hands that I played against him (less than 100), yes, his VPIP was over 40% and he raised nearly 25% of the time.
It's possible that he was just getting above average cards during that time period though.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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nope thats about what he runs
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jackvance
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..and I thought I played Lagg with 30/15 lol
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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bdawg56kg
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think this hand is an interesting example of how a single mistake can compound itself over several streets. You reraised preflop out of position with a marginal hand that has very little postflop value, had to essentially bluff the flop because of the now swollen pot, then even after making your hand, you're forced to check because it's so marginal in relation to the board that a worse hand will never call. Just call preflop.
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Why would you ever just call preflop against a 45/25? If I want to play a hand against him, I will 3-bet preflop almost 100% of the time, whether it be ATo or 67s. Let's face it, AT is clearly ahead of demi's opening range, and as for post-flop value, it really isn't as big a factor as you make it out to be since we are repping a strong hand and will take down the pot without showdown the majority of the time, making it very +EV. 3-betting puts pressure on demi and forces him to make a hand, not vice-versa as would be the case if we just called preflop. If hero just calls preflop, and check/folds the 2/3 of the time he misses, and the other 1/3 of the time he hits a top pair/mid-pair type hand that is "marginal in relation to the board" (so he can't be sure he's good), then you are playing right into the hands of a lag player. I'm not saying calling is necessarily -EV, but I think a 3-bet preflop is much more +EV than calling.
Also, by 3-betting preflop, we are cutting down on demi's positional advantage a lot, since a lot of money goes into the pot in early streets (preflop and flop). If stacks are deep or not a lot of money goes in early, then being oop is much more of a disadvantage, ie calling pf.
Also, mcatdog, I think check/folding this flop is terrible. That flop is just as unlikely to have hit him, plus you have the momentum in the hand, so I don't see a reason not to bet. If he continually floats you after you 3-bet preflop, then you can exploit this by tightening up your 3-betting range and just nailing him with the goods.
Edit: I just re-read your post and you said that once he called you thought you were beat. Does this mean you have been 3-betting him a lot and he has been routinely folding? If so, then I think check/fold is an okay option, although I still like betting.
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
because AT crushes the range of hands Demiparadigm opens with from the button.
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i understand what you are saying, but AT doesn't crush any range of hands. |
This is not as important as factors like fold equity/table image, and the fact that we are repping a big hand and forcing demi to make a hand. Under the right circumstances, I'm pretty sure 3-betting with 72o is +EV, although I cannot say for sure.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Why would you ever just call preflop against a 45/25? If I want to play a hand against him, I will 3-bet preflop almost 100% of the time, whether it be ATo or 67s.
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My thoughts exactly. Demi probably has nothing which means my implied odds are horrible. The only situation where I'd even consider just calling a super LAG's raise would be if it was a multiway pot that included several bad players, and I had a good multiway hand like a suited connector or a small pair. Otherwise, this is definitely a raise/fold situation for me.
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This is not as important as factors like fold equity/table image, and the fact that we are repping a big hand and forcing demi to make a hand. Under the right circumstances, I'm pretty sure 3-betting with 72o is +EV, although I cannot say for sure.
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I don't think I would have made this play if the small blind hadn't called. That was a much bigger factor than my hole cards, because it means that my re-raise has to take down the pot a lot less often for it to be profitable. That being said, I like having an ace in my hand because it at least gives me some outs if Demi happens to have a strong hand this time. I wouldn't have made this play with 72o.
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gabe
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lukie stop being a nit
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Lukie
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for some reason I find my advice is usually nittier then my play.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-35045.htm
click for fun, perhaps not safe for mental sanity or whatever.
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jackvance
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I think the point that you have zero implied odds against a raise if it was probably with air anyway is crucial here. I mean, it's not like you're gonna take his stack if you "hit big" here when he raised with nothing. Also I agree totally with the point of getting your money in more often preflop when you are OOP - I made a post to this effect a few days ago even - and I think this is a good example of that principle too. Reraise or fold is the way to go here imo.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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dsaxton
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
I think the point that you have zero implied odds against a raise if it was probably with air anyway is crucial here. I mean, it's not like you're gonna take his stack if you "hit big" here when he raised with nothing. Also I agree totally with the point of getting your money in more often preflop when you are OOP - I made a post to this effect a few days ago even - and I think this is a good example of that principle too. Reraise or fold is the way to go here imo.
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Implied odds have nothing whatsoever to do with this. It's $3 more to call, and you're in the big blind with A-T. Pot odds alone dictate that you should call. You're simply hoping to flop the best hand and take it down early, probably by either leading or check-raising the flop. Why do you need "implied odds" to call a standard raise in the big blind with A-T?
As for your suggestion about position, this also makes no sense. How is being out of position a reason to build a big pot? This is precisely the situation where you don't want to build a big pot, since this only magnifies your positional handicap.
And who cares if A-T is probably "ahead of Demi's range?" It's not like we're playing a tournament and sticking all our money in the pot preflop. The fact that this hand is likely to be mathematically favored over his hand is almost a completely moot point, as there is almost no money in the pot. If we were playing a game with a big ante or something, this might make sense, but otherwise it doesn't.
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jackvance
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Implied odds have nothing whatsoever to do with this. It's $3 more to call, and you're in the big blind with A-T. Pot odds alone dictate that you should call. You're simply hoping to flop the best hand and take it down early, probably by either leading or check-raising the flop. Why do you need "implied odds" to call a standard raise in the big blind with A-T?
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You are only going to hit the flop 25% of the time or something. The other 75% you'll have to toss it probably if you play like you suggest. So the "implied odds" matter here, because if he raised with air, the 25% of time you actually hit your flop, you're only taking down the pot. Ofcourse in practice it's more complicated than this, but that's the general idea.
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As for your suggestion about position, this also makes no sense. How is being out of position a reason to build a big pot? This is precisely the situation where you don't want to build a big pot, since this only magnifies your positional handicap.
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The reasoning is pretty simple though. We're probably ahead preflop. Postflop we are disadvantaged because we are OOP. So we want to get most of the money in when we have the advantage. Simple logic, no?
This is also why you raise AA preflop for a decent amount instead of a limp or minraise. You have the advantage with AA preflop, so you want to get the money in when you have the advantage. If you limp and get into a 5-way pot with AA, your advantage has just gone downhill a lot.
The key element here is that you put your money in *because you are probably ahead preflop* - or to pretend you are atleast -, not because you are OOP. The OOP part means you'll be disadvantaged postflop.
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Implied odds have nothing whatsoever to do with this.
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I completely disagree. If you know villian is the type of player that cannot fold a pair, or is a bluff-happy idiot, then you can potentially win a big pot if you get a piece and call him down. I am guessing this is not the kind of player demi is, so that's why implied odds are small.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
As for your suggestion about position, this also makes no sense. How is being out of position a reason to build a big pot? This is precisely the situation where you don't want to build a big pot, since this only magnifies your positional handicap.
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You misunderstood my post. I am not advocating a 3-bet so we can build a big pot oop with less than a premium. I am advocating taking control of the hand and putting demi to a tough decision, and a result of a preflop 3-bet + flop c-bet is that it nullifies his positional advantage since so much money goes into the pot early, leaving him little wiggle room to make a move. ie floating in a bloated pot is often not a good idea.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
And who cares if A-T is probably "ahead of Demi's range?" It's not like we're playing a tournament and sticking all our money in the pot preflop. The fact that this hand is likely to be mathematically favored over his hand is almost a completely moot point, as there is almost no money in the pot. If we were playing a game with a big ante or something, this might make sense, but otherwise it doesn't.
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dsaxton, what is your 3-betting range preflop agaisnt a 45/25, in and out of position? Do you not agree that the laggier villian is, the wider our 3-betting range should be?
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06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
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