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07-31-2009, 04:53 PM
Post subject: 100NL limped pot third nuts vs. 52/1
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#1 (permalink)
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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($101.50)
UTG ($78.75)
MP ($117.75)
CO ($95.10)
Button ($100)
SB ($272.40)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 , 7
UTG calls $1, 4 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($2.50) 8 , 10, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, UTG raises to $5, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $25, Hero ???
it's like I'd rather have a set here than a straight because I'm drawing dead vs. higher straights, but with a set I have 40% equity vs. any straight
is my thinking wrong here?
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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You are spinnin crazy dude. Easy shove, because he also has overpairs here like JJ, QQ, KK, AA and you beat all those.
Edit: OK, 50/1 prob means he only raises premiums pre?
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sir Pawnalot
You are spinnin crazy dude. Easy shove, because he also has overpairs here like JJ, QQ, KK, AA and you beat all those.
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when he limped AA he just flatted some guy's bet and checked turn on a monotone board and he didn't even have the ace of the suit
when he limped QQ, he check/called two streets and checked river
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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IC, I guess this is one of those spots where out flopped straight is not very good vs villains range which is basically sets, better straight and maybe JJ?
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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well if he plays two pair this way (minraise flop, then cib like he has the immortal fucking nuts) then it's a fist-pump shove
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Luke999
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: England
Posts: 238
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Im not sure I can ever find a fold here, seems like he has tried to get tricky with an overpair.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Luke999
Im not sure I can ever find a fold here, seems like he has tried to get tricky with an overpair.
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I seriously can't put him on an overpair at all
I think he can beat AA every time
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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hands played perfectly so far. you could call the flop bet and shove on a non board pairing turn. he isnt folding a set if he doesn't boat up on the turn.
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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he's a 52/1.
get the fucking money in the pot.
A set is more like 35% vs a bigger straight anyway, but that's not the point.
Code:
Board: Td 9h 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.825% 53.81% 01.01% 26105 490.50 { 7d6d }
Hand 1: 45.175% 44.16% 01.01% 21424 490.50 { 88+, QJs, QJo }
Board: Td 9h 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.657% 59.39% 01.26% 81141 1728.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 39.343% 38.08% 01.26% 52023 1728.00 { 88+, QJs, QJo }
88 is slightly worse than 7d6d. Any way we stack off.
I left this in the preview and went to get a coffee, came back and read the responses. Even if we drop QQ+ and add T9 and 89 to his range:
Code:
Board: Td 9h 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.195% 49.97% 01.22% 24242 592.50 { 7d6d }
Hand 1: 48.805% 47.58% 01.22% 23083 592.50 { JJ-88, QJs, T9s, 98s, QJo, T9o, 98o }
We still get it in.
A player like this is what I call a 'whim' player. I don't think I'm ever folding this to him.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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Luke999
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: England
Posts: 238
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Well, there is a good chance he limped an overpair, and I don't think he is folding.
If he limps suited connectors and low PP's he can have top 2 or a set which your ahead of and can even be chopping.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill
hands played perfectly so far. you could call the flop bet and shove on a non board pairing turn. he isnt folding a set if he doesn't boat up on the turn.
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that's what I did, but I am beginning to question if he ever cibs anything less than a straight or set because we've seen him play overpairs passively
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Parasurama
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07-31-2009, 07:35 PM
Post subject: Re: 100NL limped pot third nuts vs. 52/1
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#12 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
it's like I'd rather have a set here than a straight because I'm drawing dead vs. higher straights, but with a set I have 40% equity vs. any straight
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oh hai basic flop odds
427,680 games 0.002 secs 213,840,000 games/sec
Board: 8c 9h Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.552% 34.43% 01.12% 147239 4810.50 { TT-88 }
Hand 1: 64.448% 63.32% 01.12% 270820 4810.50 { QJs, J7s, 76s, QJo, J7o, 76o }
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Why are you 3betting if you're tempted to fold to a/don't know what to do to a 4bet?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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i would not worry about being beat. our opponents havse the same fundamental problem as us which is we don't play perfectly. he can show up with a worse hand here than a straight. you must 3bet this flop unless opp will >95% bet this turn when checkd to.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
Why are you 3betting if you're tempted to fold to a/don't know what to do to a 4bet?
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it's not like I didn't know what I was going to do since my plan was to felt this
but I'm questioning my plan for felting this in the first place because I could easily just call him on the turn and river
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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I think the fact that he's a mega whale way outweighs the fact that he might be passive.
Just ship this, and don't even think twice about it. Sucks he had QJ though.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
I think the fact that he's a mega whale way outweighs the fact that he might be passive.
Just ship this, and don't even think twice about it. Sucks he had QJ though.
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/thread plus imo tons of backdoorage
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