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100NL I always want to show I can't be pushed around...

  
 
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Old 07-31-2009, 04:50 PM     Post subject: 100NL I always want to show I can't be pushed around... #1 (permalink)  
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guy is the GAMBOOL! type fish with lots of preflop aggression
last hand I had tpmehk and called two streets and folded river because he was betting real healthy
so the very next hand I'm kind of going fuck him I'm showing my top pair down
river helps, I think? he has more bluffs in his range because of this

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($114.50)
UTG ($120.20)
MP ($137.90)
CO ($18)
Hero (Button) ($246.70)
SB ($38.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
1 fold, MP bets $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5, A, 7 (2 players)
MP bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $8, Hero calls $8

River: ($33.50) 4 (2 players)
MP bets $33.50, Hero calls $33.50

Total pot: $100.50 | Rake: $3
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Sir Pawnalot
Old 07-31-2009, 05:51 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I like this play all the way. Since his value bet range on river is very tight Kh/Qh, his bluffing range is wider than his value range.

Good call IMO.
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A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
 
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dev
Old 07-31-2009, 06:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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It kind of sucks when he bets pot on the river. I'm thinking if he was barreling 2 streets and decided to bluff the river it would have been smaller, especially on this river.

I still call but I fucking hate it.
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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Luke999
Old 07-31-2009, 06:46 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Urgh at him potting river. I just close my eyes and press a button.
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Galapogos
Old 07-31-2009, 06:52 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I don't think I call the river. He doesn't need to bet that big to bluff a 4 flush board. He likely decided if you're calling, you'll call big.


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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 07-31-2009, 06:58 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 did you not 3bet because you think you'll often have to fold to a 4bet? otherwise 3bet>>call>fold i think.

it looks like he is repping exactly Khx so versus the described player it's a call.
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Old 07-31-2009, 07:05 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill
did you not 3bet because you think you'll often have to fold to a 4bet? otherwise 3bet>>call>fold i think.

it looks like he is repping exactly Khx so versus the described player it's a call.
well he's not a maniac, he is just an aggressive fish

his exact stats are 40/24/15 (3b) over 57 hands but over such a small sample you can't really say
he folded to 2 out of the last 4 3bs so he doesn't play all of his hands
I think we're like a flip vs. his continuing range against a 3b
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Da GOAT
Old 07-31-2009, 07:52 PM #8 (permalink)  
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whats the point of this thread? How your amazing?
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
 
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 07-31-2009, 08:10 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill
did you not 3bet because you think you'll often have to fold to a 4bet? otherwise 3bet>>call>fold i think.

it looks like he is repping exactly Khx so versus the described player it's a call.
well he's not a maniac, he is just an aggressive fish

his exact stats are 40/24/15 (3b) over 57 hands but over such a small sample you can't really say
he folded to 2 out of the last 4 3bs so he doesn't play all of his hands
I think we're like a flip vs. his continuing range against a 3b



below is my attempt at calculating the EV of a 3bet preflop, to see if it actually is profitable.




three things can happen once we 3bet:

1. MP and the rest of the table folds and we win 4.5bb
2. we 3bet to 10bb and we lose 10bb to any 4bet or get coldcalled by another player.
3. MP calls and we see a flop.


my thoughts on the frequencies... 1. 35%, 2. 10%, 3. 55%.


if we effectively never try to bluff postflop, then roughly 66% of the time we take a oEV line - fold to any bet. since we are in position with Ace high and have initiative, it's likely there is >oEV here just not much.

since we are talking about a fish, we can safely assume the times we flop a pair or better in position we will profit in the long run. this should be true with AJo in a 3bet pot as well as a raised pot, but almost certainly will be MORE profitable when the stacks are shallower and we have initiative -- 3bet pot style.

i doubt it's a stretch, but to make the math easy let's say the 55% of times MP calls our 3bet we are breakeven... oEV. then the total postflop EV of AJo in a 3bet pot shouldn't be worse than oEV, most likely slightly +EV.


now for the easy maths on outcomes 1 and 2... [.35(4.5bb)]+[.10(-10bb)] = 1.575 - 1.000 = 0.575bb



3betting seems like it has to be the best play here.
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Old 07-31-2009, 08:43 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
whats the point of this thread? How your amazing?
no it's how I got owned by AxQh and I got value towned for 3 streets and I wonder if I could play less like a fish

zeroskill showed it's probably profitable to 3b, but it's probably profitable to flat too, so he didn't show it was better to 3b than just call
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bikes
Old 07-31-2009, 08:45 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 folding the turn seems redic standard.
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Parasurama
Old 07-31-2009, 08:51 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT
whats the point of this thread? How your amazing?
What makes you say that?

^^not a level

I mean I can see how many of his posts have an egotistical element but I don't see it here.
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Old 07-31-2009, 09:10 PM #13 (permalink)  
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well that's because people already expect this of me
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griffey24
Old 07-31-2009, 09:33 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 Playing this the same a lottt.. pot size river sucks though.. I'd make some sort of timing decision. more likely to fold if he's a nit here.. but he doesn't sound like it.
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Fnord
Old 08-01-2009, 09:59 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
Playing this the same a lottt.. pot size river sucks though.. I'd make some sort of timing decision. more likely to fold if he's a nit here.. but he doesn't sound like it.
This. Not folding the turn without a tell about his bet size being super-strong.
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